AlFa_C1

whatching a world in a time of changes

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Let me understand this correctly.

Israel strikes Southern Lebanon, issues evacuation orders, etc.

Hezbollah launches drones into Israel.

Israel, with the blessing of the US, launches an attack in Beirut.

And we are all supposed to believe that an MOU, not an actual peace deal, will be signed by tomorrow or whenever it is?

Ok, nice.

Meanwhile…

[Laman @LVision_Trading]

HORMUZ | Who is moving 4-5 mbd of oil in darkness that Bloomberg is talking about?

Not commercial operators. ~100M bbls sits in ~70 vessels in the Gulf I can name by IMO - they are not going anywhere (yet).

What is not in my list: state-owned fleets that self-insure:
◼ Bahri (Saudi) — 50 VLCCs
◼ KOTC (Kuwait) — 11 VLCCs
◼ ADNOC L&S (UAE) — 8 VLCCs
◼ SOMO (Iraq) — chartered dark transits

They don’t need Lloyd’s. They own the cargo, the hull, and the political risk, and can afford betting a kidney on moving their own bbls out.

The ~100M bbls unlocks when war risk insurance reopens.

The “shuttle infrastructure” covers 1/4 of regular traffic (~5 out of 20mbd). Lets assume another ~5mbd use alternative routes. Remaining ~10mbd which coincide with shut-in production require restoration of COMMERCIAL flows.

The burning question for me: does it justify oil prices ONLY $16 above pre-war level?..

$OIL NFA

[Bogachan Ozdemir @Bogachan_1971]

Each time #Trump fakes a deal, he personally gets richer. Each time someone buys a lot of call options on $SPX or sell #OIL futures.

#Iran also benefits from fake deals because it postpones the process and we get one day closer to hitting the tank bottoms in oil reserves.

#China and #Russia also benefits from Trump's lies about an imminent deal as it pushes oil prices low for now that is good for China but also sets up USA as the biggest reason for upcoming oil shock. China has reserves more than all others' combined.

Others like Europeans that will be hurt more than any others have no leadership to intervene.

Consider USA like in a Batman movie but led by a character worse than Bane. In fact, next Batman movie should have a character like Trump to play the next Joker. He is more evil than any Joker we got and his followers are dvmber than the ones in the movie.

You will have no deal after markets close today. It was all about $SPCX IPO and then this will repeat at least 40 times more since Trump will make money each time.

Gotham is lost and there is no Batman.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

3/1: "four to five weeks"
3/9: "very soon"
3/16: "won't be long"
3/23: "very good and productive conversations"
3/26: talks to end the war are “going very well"
3/29: "I think we'll make a deal with them, pretty sure"
4/1: “very shortly”
4/6: "They’ve made a proposal, and it’s a significant proposal."
4/8: ""A big day for World Peace!"
5/18: "we’ve had very big discussions with Iran"
5/23: "will be announced shortly."
6/1: "rapid pace"
6/11: "next few days"

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@DeItaone To make a lie you already made 38 times more credible just add next geopolitical event into the old narrative. It makes it sound different, and thus more beleivable

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@DarioCpx who cares. just sell Oil

[GreyHairOpsGuy @GreyHairOpsGuy]

Tank bottoms

WTI $88

[Chris Martenson @chrismartenson]

I am sicka nd tired of living in these Truman Show ""markets"" Stocks smashed higher and oil dumped on this "news" which is nothing more or less than exactly what's been said and done 39 times already. Our markets have become a parody. This all ends badly.

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@KobeissiLetter I doubt it will reverse over the weekend even if the war restarts. At this point it is totally artificial market with price being set rater than discovered

[Bogachan Ozdemir @Bogachan_1971]

If you believe #Iran agreed to these, I have a bridge to sell you in NJ.

There is no deal... SpaceX IPO allocations wil be determined by 9 am EST tomorrow... and later in the day, #Trump will sing a different song.

I hope Elon gives some shares to presstitutes for the great job they did to spread the same lie 38th time.

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

They are manipulating the shit out of the stock market aren’t they fam

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@steve_hanke It`s literally IMPOSSIBLE

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@stockdatamarket Its funny that people trying to aplpy TA to a totally artificial market. No speculators left, OI is down 2x, reaction to bullish events is diminishing. Downside is controlled eighter by TWAP selling algos or flush "deal imminent" headlines. Nothing to see here untill it breaks

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

If you are curious to know what a black swan looks like before it strikes the markets when people expect it the least, I took a nice portrait of that for you

[Z4 Energy Research @ZmansEnrgyBrain]

Suppose I wanted to short WTI futures to suppress oil prices.

First, I'd need an absurd amount of capital ... think U.S. Treasury-sized cheddar.

Second, I'd want to stay out of the spotlight. If I routed the trades through swap dealers, the positions wouldn't show up under my name in the CFTC reports. They'd be more like stock held in street name.

The shorts would show up in the data, most likely under Swap Dealer positions, but the public wouldn't see who was behind them. They'd see the footprints but not the feet.

But someone is hugely short right now.

#OOTT

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@EGYOSINT a pile of cash

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@GasBuddyGuy Dump oil!

[AlFa_C1 @AlFa_C1]

@OilandEnergy seems like never. economy runs on AI now
https://t.co/REPWWegTMj

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Massive blast in Tehran shakes the Foreign Ministry building in Iran's capital

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/OLSkMDq3Le

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Trading algorithms remain hard-wired to be bearish on oil - hard to blame when the price manipulation remains very effective.

Beware: when the dam breaks, you can throw technicals in the trash bin, and the rush to reposition will be a hell of a show

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

They literally removed the day trading margin limit at the stock market top.

Fucked.