Employed as a scientist.
Question everything.
First principle thinking.
Enjoy reading.
Financial freedom.
Investing/trading, business, personal finance.
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.
AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.
Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.
The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.
https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb
Fantastic interview with @Michael_Easter to unpack what actually separates the top 0.01% from everyone else....and the things you've been taught that often lead you astray.
"The Psychologist for Billionaires: How the Top 0.01% Actually Think"
https://t.co/J65ayjbk3F
Today I'm publishing a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential. AI is progressing extremely fast—much faster than the policy process was built to handle. The essay lays out where I think the technology is now, and the action needed to close the gap: https://t.co/Lh6PWae178
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio ~$150B in AUM - explained to Oxford students why every fiat currency is now in the final stage of the Big Cycle.
- he called 2008, called 2022, and now he's pointing at something bigger
45-min at Oxford Union. Free.
bookmark & watch - required viewing for anyone serious about macro
How a $4M poker champion turned every decision you make into a bet — and why that changes everything
Annie Duke, Ph.D. (@AnnieDuke — WSOP bracelet winner, $4M in tournament winnings, national bestselling author of Thinking in Bets, Special Partner @ First Round Capital, PhD in Cognitive Psychology from Penn)
"A good bet is one that carries positive expectancy. What a good bet is NOT — is one that wins."
We cover:
- Why every decision you've ever made is a bet (even ordering off a menu)
- The green light vs. red light rule for separating outcomes from decisions
- How to build an EV calculation for something as messy as choosing a career
- Why loss aversion is secretly an uncertainty problem — and how great risk takers solve it
- When to trust your gut vs. when gut feel is just bias in disguise
- The pre-mortem framework — how to find your blind spots before it's too late
- Mental time travel: the parenting tool Annie uses to raise better decision-makers
- How she explained luck, hard work & probability to her 4 kids at the dinner table
Thanks for making time, Annie. Been a fan of yours for a while.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:12 Defining bets as resource allocation under uncertainty
04:52 Positive expectancy vs. outcome-based evaluation
06:11 Resulting: Why outcomes are not proxies for decision quality
15:19 Calculating expected value in high-variance career paths
18:55 Moving from implicit intuition to explicit decision modeling
24:27 Using base rates and reference classes for startups
30:26 Psychological traits of elite risk takers and traders
31:33 How prospect theory and loss aversion distort risk
45:12 Deconstructing gut feel and the role of intuition
49:36 Evaluating optionality and impact in fast-moving environments
57:13 Mental time travel: Tools for managing temporal discounting
01:01:31 Quantifying the intersection of luck and hard work
01:04:43 Internalizing a probabilistic worldview for long-term edge
“It’s amazing how life works out if you just get up every morning and keep plugging, have some discipline and keep learning… I did not intend to get rich, I wanted to be independent. I just overshot.”
— Charlie Munger
10 Principles - "Present Yourself as a Man in Full."
for my younger self. slim chance he'd have gotten it.
1. The collective judgment of humanity will get you right. Your faith in this principle must never be shaken.
2. Those who matter will get you right, as will the fat part of the curve. Tails and edge cases are noise.
3. Treat the wisdom of crowds as gospel and trust that the crowd, in all its forms, will get u for who u are
4. But for this to happen, it is incumbent on you to always "present yourself as a man in full."
5. Be who you are. Be comfortable in your own skin.
6. Do not paint a picture or apply gloss. Do not think.
7. Let the crowd observe you from every angle, the good and the bad, and get comfortable with what they see.
8. Over time, perfect alignment will be achieved between their image of you, and who you actually are.
9. Never get defensive. The wise man, the crowd, they see all. They recognize envy as envy and slander as slander, because he is familiar to them just as you are.
10. Most important: HAVE FAITH IN HUMANITY.
That last one, 10, is the one that cannot be taught or read in a book. I didn't have it when I was younger.
END: THE ACQUISITION OF FAITH
You acquire it by spending time with ALL humans around the world, high, low, rich, poor, black, white.
It is only when you have seen man in all his forms -- man, as "a man in full" -- that you reach your own perfect alignment.
All men are the exact same, human nature is the exact same, and all have hopes and dreams and are proud and desire glory.
The lie you were told -- that you will encounter some who are "different," -- lays shattered on the ground, replaced by a warmth towards your fellow man.
There has never been a human heart without some measure of love, a desire to do good and achieve glory and be known to his family as a hero.
You laugh at thinking it could have ever been otherwise, that God has ever created a human being that was unlike those before it or those to come. Human nature, and the minds and hearts that comprise it, has never deviated throughout recorded history.
In this process, you acquire the unshakable faith that no matter where you go, or who you encounter, every single man you meet will be the same as every single man you have met.
It has never been any other way. It never will be. As with all things, it exists in perfect alignment under God.