Alan Chiu

Psalms 23:6

[Autumn @Fall_sunshine]

很温馨啊，老妈们陪同领奖，黄仁勋和他妈妈长得真像

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@RihardJarc Because this graph didn't highlight the ROIC.

AMZN GOOG MSFT used to be a light asset FCF machine. Now its capital intensive

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@RihardJarc I hope Mr Jarc can discuss the off balance sheet debt, and see the depreciation will matter

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@AnnaEconomist Yeah, that’s more like the true picture.

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@MarkRitchie_II But the market isnt really that pessimistic.

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@BrunoSi6609201 @DrewCohenMoney Better than the real greed of Valaent

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@P_Remarks PDD
100B market cap

catalyst needed: management announce buyback

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@HarkkonanInc @BourbonCap if he know he wouldn’t be here writting tweets

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@RihardJarc @klemenselakovic tell us more

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@mikulkal @marketsurge It's a late stage base.

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@Midnight_Captl @zerohedge Bulls make money, but bagholders of extrapolated assets lose money

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@Mr535703377 @TJ_Research 沒有Dot Com的瘋狂建設，就沒有後來的Google Youtube Netflix Amazon

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@TJ_Research 不要去做空
但不否認AI 算力過剩，LLM race to bottom 價格大戰

技術進步（鐵路，汽車，航空，Dot Com）一直都和股東回報脫節。

巴菲特說過，美國歷史上無一例外，所有Airline 都倒閉過，ROIC < 0

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@mikulkal @marketsurge All I’m saying is, chasing MSFT here might be bag-holding for bottom fishers who gained the sweetest chunk.

I understand VCP and CANSILM

But fundamentals does matter in mega caps

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@mikulkal @marketsurge 50% from here.

Mega caps could rip during PE revaluation. If you want the best outcome, maybe Amazon

It’s not the VCP framework, but the 2 example you quoted are also not VCP (bottom bounce)

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@RihardJarc So tons of extra Capex. The Muse win makes Zuckerberg wants to All-In on AI

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@TJ_Research 我覺得加息（短期利率）無所謂，主要擔心還是US10Y。真的都難以想像幾天就到5.2%

Stan Druck 說能到5.5%（我沒看法）

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@TJ_Research 我認為，大科技自己的現金流就是對衝高利率的工具。中小盤股和派息股 （XLU，MCD，XLP）反而重災區

[Alan Chiu @Alan_Chiu_]

@RihardJarc You were bullish on all CSP.

MSFT, Amazon, Google