Just like I was talking about yesterday: Screwworm has now been detected in the United States and it’s going to be very difficult and very expensive to contain this. It’s going to hurt farmers & ranchers and also drive up the cost of meat
Big gain for Steyer in this drop. It's not quite enough to catch up, but even if this held it would put him very close Hilton. He needs later mail to keep moving his way.
At any rate, we have a race on our hands and a call today or tomorrow is pretty much impossible.
Right now my back of the napkin math leads to a fairway estimate of:
⚪️ Kiley – 24.6%
🔵 Pan – 22.8%
🔴 Stansfield – 20.4%
Pan is currently winning 41.6% of Democratic votes. My estimate is that he likely needs about 37.1% by the end to be even with Stansfield.
My guess is it’ll end up 62/38 and Hilton will continue to win ~70% of the GOP vote.
That would put Hilton’s final # at ~26.5% and Other GOP ~11.5%. Let’s give Other Democrats a combined 10%.
So #math says there’s 52% left for XB/TS to split and no way for a D top 2.
Republicans are standing next to signs saying Democrats were “trans-ing the mice” because they don’t want people to realize they’re talking about transgenic mice—genetically modified mice used in lifesaving medical research on cancer, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, and neurological disorders. People could die because Republicans saw that important medical research has the word “trans” in it.
Key outstanding races in California as we await late arriving mail to be counted in the coming days (or god forbid weeks):
Governor
Steve Hilton (R) leads Tom Steyer (D) by 8 points for the rights to take on Xavier Becerra (D) in the GE. Steyer still has a shot at overtaking Hilton if the late drops are blue enough, way too early to know.
LA Mayor
Spencer Pratt (R) leads Nithya Raman (D) by 8 points. Raman still has a shot at overtaking Pratt and advancing to the GE to take on incumbent Karen Bass (D) if the late drops are blue enough.
CA-06
Dems are at risk of a lockout in what should be a safe blue seat, but Richard Pan (D) *should* be able to squeak it out over Michael Stansfield (R) to make the second GE slot to face independent-in-name-only incumbent Kevin Kiley.
CA-07
Mai Vang (D) — backed by progressive groups — holds a narrow lead over Zachariah Wooden (R) for the rights to take on incumbent Doris Matsui (D) in the GE in this safe blue seat.
CA-14
Melissa Hernandez (D), Wendy Huang (R) & Dena Maldonado (R) are all within 900 votes of one another for the second slot to face Aisha Wahab (D) in the GE for Eric Swalwell’s old safe blue seat. Wahab is the progressive, Hernandez is the moderate. District voters will have to cast another ballot for this seat on June 16 in a special election to fill the remainder of Swalwell's term in Congress.
CA-22
Randy Villegas (progressive, backed by Bernie & AOC) holds a 4-point lead over Jasmeet Bains (moderate/establishment) for the second general election slot against incumbent David Valadao (R) in a crucial flip opportunity for Democrats.
Incumbent #SD04 Republican Marie Alvarado-Gil, elected as a Democrat in a top two lockout in 2022 before joining the GOP to run for re-election, is currently at risk of not making the runoff and losing to Republican Alexandra Duarte, wife of former #CA13 Rep. John Duarte
If your candidate for governor didn’t win the GOP nomination tonight, you are welcome here. Iowans deserve a leader who lives in Iowa, who has worked for Iowans rather than for insiders, and someone that is committed to serving Iowa families. We already have more GOP donors than the GOP nominee. Join us. All Iowans - Democrats, Republicans and independents - are all welcome.
We either need to get rid of Top 2 (which I voted against 16 years ago 😤), or we need to bring back the smoke-filled room where people are forced to stand down to avoid lockouts.
Steyer needs to beat Hilton by roughly 14 points in late mail to advance, and recent ED drops are already showing signs of meeting or even exceeding that benchmark.
Currently, the top-three is within 7.3 points. A very blue electorate could allow him to edge out Hilton.
Ignoring the obvious issue of firing Scott Pelley for a moment, why write this letter?
Who’s the intended audience? Who does Nick Bilton think he’s convincing with this?
They literally cite the partisan reasons of Republicans as a reason to allow the map change. I don't see how any map, including Tennessee's recent map, will be rejected by this court.
The VRA, at least for any partisan elections, is dead