呆猴别动队

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

美国需要机器人重铸制造业辉煌，中国需要机器人替代房地产对上下游的拉动。软件的比拼是Ai，硬件的比拼不是商业航天而是机器人...

商业航天在我国的环境下对上下游的拉动非常有限，创新药在医保资金吃紧和集采制度的压力下没办法长久持续。

目前看只能是机器人

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month.

Just a summary:

IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers:
- Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs
- LG Energy (373220) / battery
- Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration
- Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators

As for humanoid volume ramps:

They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032.

Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps...

Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like:

- 15-20k 2028
- 40k-70k 2029
- 90k-140k for 2030

Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026.

In terms of competitive landscape they name:

- $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now)
- Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders.
- Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders.

They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis.

Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now.

Then from report assumptions:
- 31 actuators per Atlas
- $1K per actuator in 2028
- $134K Atlas ASP,

Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%.

Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots.

So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp.

I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@_FORAB 欧美可以自主拿薯片了，我们落后的太多了，但是一直在比出货量，很少人比智能程度

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@TracerZas 感觉是个高手，关注➕进群了

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@Kuaijiu0211 光跌但是没放量，应该还要跌

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@youngstockuser 我这个点位加仓了

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@flyingb76202128 @chukuang2018 文盲，初中都没毕业的货。不用重点大学理工科，是个普通本科理工科都知道这个是真的。两院院士也告诉你美国登月是真的，你还陷在自己的幻想里。

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@Mimiwftt 她讲的好，宏观层面很清晰。我就是宏观经济看她，微观技术看你

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@cnfinancewatch 分析的很有道理👍

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@_FORAB 人就上班8-10小时，这机器人只要有电能24小时不停

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@jackye2035 @Mimiwftt 广发证券机器人ETF基金经理认为机器人还没0-1，现在算0.5-1，是大左侧，这个可以长线配置。美国仅加州就有300多家机器人企业（整机厂），而我们连配套商加一起也没这么多，前景非常好。我买了ETF，准备锁仓几年，吃全段。

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@EdwardTWinz 0xe159645aF4004c6569a2967064391499251128c1

thank u

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

天天就兆易创新，士兰微，中芯国际...翻来覆去那几个股...不是存储就是光纤，只会这些，别人说啥他说啥
实在不会的就看涨停榜或者龙虎榜比划两下...
都老奶奶念经了，这能不跌都没天理了...
这下不念经了吧？

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@Amu0zy4 @HenryinvestX 利好兑现为利空，破250日线了，走吧

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@siantgirl 是个博主就推它，复制粘贴的说它，那再傻也不能拿了啊

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@jasonvip2336 @xtony1314 炒股看基本面么？

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@memekiller365 怪不得瀑布呢...
百思不得其解，整体大利空没有，流动性宽松，版块都不切换了，直接瀑布...
怪不得呢

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@Mimiwftt 我上周五空的，感觉科技拉不动了，留了点机器人ETF，准备放个两三年再看。我的认知里，AI是技术密集+资金密集类似以前金融行业，但是类似以前房地产的劳动力密集+资金密集的还没有出现，劳动力就业肯定要保的，所以2-3年超长线赌一把机器人

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@sszcw 有两把刷子，厉害👍

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@off_thetarget 太空网络不是基本建成了嘛，火箭技术也成熟了（成熟的标志是商业化，可以获取订单和利润，而不是技术上的要去火星），他现在最大的开支是Ai数据中心和机器人工厂

[呆猴别动队 @Alex_SUNRUI1102]

@alex_prompter @robbyant_brain It's amazing. It's fantastic.👍👍👍