Seeing a lot of buzz around $LULU here is my take:
yes technicals are saying oversold, but there is a reason its oversold. The margin compression and market share loss it has seen in the US is killing it.
LULU used to stand alone in the space and held a monopoly. Now you have ALO, Athleta, Fabletics, Vuori, Gymshark.
Here is how I would trade this. Let it report earnings on 9/3 after the bell. Make sure they dont miss again too avoid another drawdown. If they show that they are making ground back in the US market then I would start to scale in and hold for the longterm.
The numbers:
$LULU ~$123
Not RSI-oversold today (RSI ~53).
The oversold case is the DRAWDOWN.
• 52w: $104 → $226
• Down ~45% from the high
• Still 20% under the 200-day (~$154)
• Death cross intact (50-day ~$118 / 200-day ~$154)
• Base building $104–$120
• Short interest ~10% of float
Valuation is the real washout:
~10x trailing earnings. ~11x forward.
~$11B sales. ~56% gross margin. ~31% ROE.
Street used to pay a growth multiple. Now it prices “growth is dead.”
Next line in the sand: $104.
First real repair: reclaim $154.
Earnings Thu 9/3 AMC — that print decides if this base holds.
Education only. Not advice.
I need 29 more verified followers to hit my monthly goal.
This will be hard…
It’s crazy how your engagement gets nuked if you can’t be on X every couple days.
Do you think their heavy allocation towards scaling TPU’s will pay off is the real question.
Seems like currency 💴 drag (along with the heavy capex to TPU ramp) is a key reason why their free cash flow went negative. They are pushing the chips to the center.
More currency drag is projected in q4. A lot of their revs come from outside us (other currencies) so same money in just less when converted to dollars. Dollar up revs suffer
I think when it comes to $GOOG you have to believe that them going full speed on their TPU ramp (significant capex allocation) will be a strong competitor.
Or will business stay with their current products aka $NVDA
I feel like it’s getting very obvious that a lot of big players are going full go on their AI buildouts and are willing to let key verticals of their business take a hit in the short term.
First one to the end of the rainbow gets the pot of gold
$GOOG and $NOW with a swing and a miss on earnings. Looks like we are going to have the AI capex sell off scare again.
I need to dive into the report and call for earnings but might be a buying opportunity on Google if this creates and over reaction.
@Jcruuuz31 When I have a slow day or time to sit down I will but not a religious one. Prefer to swing underlying and sell premiums when looking to play defense