Ali Mamouri

Research Fellow @Deakin | ME Specialist | Former Iraq Editor @AlMonitor | Former StratComm Advisor Iraqi PM | Bylines @ConversationEDU @AmwajMedia @thenewregion

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

Iraq cannot be governed against Iran, nor Leb against Syria. The failure of attempts to govern Iraq from Iran or Leb from Syria has been also proven. Similarly, Leb cannot be governed either against Iran or by Iran, just as Iraq cannot be governed against Syria or vice versa.

[Mustafa @MustafaFahs]

Two Leaders Return from Washington https://t.co/eq5Jr9jQ69

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

@MUNQITHDAGHER الشعور متبادل صديقي العزيز. هناك بعض التفاهمات بلغت مرحلة الاتفاقية ونفذت بالفعل مثل مشروع كهرباء شركة مبنا في البصرة. المشكلة تعود الى إما العقوبات المانعة من نقل الاموال او سوء إدارة المشاريع في كل من البلدين، ولذلك العراق عاجز على تنفيذ معظم المشاريع الاخرى مع باقي الدول ايضا.

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

A courageous moral stance. I hope more Israelis adopt this perspective—lasting security can never be built on injustice.

[Elizabeth Tsurkov @LizHurra]

Israel's national security policy is unlikely to undergo a major changes if Eisenkott is the next PM because a majority of Israelis support Israel's aggressive regional policy, deprivation of rights of the Palestinians & occupied "buffer zones" inside other countries. However, a new government will be more amenable to US pressure to withdraw from Syria and maybe Lebanon too, start reconstruction in areas in Gaza outside of Hamas control, as the PM will not be concerned about preserving a base and a government made up of extremists. A greater move toward Palestinian statehood seems unlikely to me, unfortunately. Since Oct 7th, most Israelis came to view a Palestinian state as an existential threat & support for the 2-state-solution plummeted.
But the most important change in Israel's external conduct, I believe, will come in the West Bank. Most Israelis support cracking down on Jewish terrorism (see poll https://t.co/me7aIDbSHZ) and a government that does not include ministers who support settler terrorism (as is the case now) will act to quash it, I believe. First, because this government will include the leftist party HaDemocratim, which made this a central demand for joining the gov, and because stopping settler terrorism will help improve the record-low image of the Israeli government across the world.
This will bring immense relief to Palestinians in areas C and B who have been subjected to daily attacks of settlers, theft of livestock, torching of property and agricultural fields, uprooting of olive trees, and even killings.
I hope a greater change happens (and will do my best to push in that direction), but even if just this atrocity stops, it will make lives better for the most impoverished and marginalized Palestinian communities in the occupied West Bank. This terror, coupled with Israeli Army restrictions on movement, led about 5,700 Palestinians living in 45 different communities to flee their homes since Oct 7th. This injustice must be reversed.

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

@lcmporter You're facing this with great courage. Wishing you a successful surgery and a fast, full recovery.

[Frontline @frontline_india]

NEW | Governments are outsourcing public diplomacy to “influencers” because they are more trusted than official voices. This has turned diplomacy into a privatised, decentralised, algorithm-driven system that makes state messaging far less transparent. @AliAlMamouri writes.

https://t.co/9GzMehuODD

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

How Tehran Sees the War: Understanding Iran's Strategic Logic

Outline:

When War Becomes Cheaper Than Negotiation

Meeting the Madman with a Madman

Who Can Endure More Pain?

Iran’s Escalation Ladder

Washington’s Escalation Trap

https://t.co/yppdAe7fTO

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

The Zaidi's recent visit to Washington has created a valuable window for Iraq. Success will not be measured by the number of agreements signed or promises made, but by whether Baghdad can translate this momentum into tangible outcomes.

https://t.co/2fG2BupaeV

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

Providing evidence-based analysis is an ethical responsibility. By contrast, advocating for war without understanding the realities on the ground, or based on ideological preferences rather than facts, is unethical—it contributes to disastrous policies & their human consequences.

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

More importantly, the bias that those critics have long advocated—pressuring analysts to fit ideological expectations rather than follow the evidence—has caused significant harm not only to the Iranian people, but also to the United States and the wider region.

[Sanam Vakil صنم وكىل @SanamVakil]

Western Iran analysts or Iranian analysts based in the West rarely support the Iranian regime. Yet time and again, those of us who try to explain what we see rather than what we might want to see are accused of being pro regime. Analysis is not advocacy. Explaining the regime’s calculations, constraints, or its resilience does not mean justifying its actions, ignoring Iranian society, or endorsing its rule.

Most serious scholars do not work for Tehran, cannot regularly return to Iran, and do not have privileged access. We spend our time trying to interpret incomplete evidence as carefully and objectively as possible.

Our conclusions should be challenged on the basis of evidence and method, not dismissed as pro regime simply because they do not satisfy opponents of the Islamic Republic be it in the region, the diaspora or the West.

The rich diversity of work on Iran is something I am proud to see. It reflects a broad and increasingly sophisticated field. @CH_MENAP just last week we convened a fantastic day-long research discussion on Iran and the war. There was no consensus view, but there was thoughtful, respectful, and dynamic discussion among participants from across the analytical spectrum. That is what a serious academic and analytical community should look like.

[Amwaj.media @amwajmedia]

Days after attending Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral procession in Najaf, Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi is in Washington.

Can Baghdad continue to walk the tightrope between Iran & the US, or will mounting pressures force a choice?

✍️@AliAlMamouri for @amwajmedia 👇

[The New Region @thenewregion]

OPINION: How Iraq can maximize Zaidi’s Washington visit

✍️: @AliAlMamouri

https://t.co/odYsSIee4P

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

So far, Ahmed al-Sharaa appears to have acted prudently by resisting a scenario reportedly encouraged by the U.S. and welcomed by Israel. Avoiding another regional front would serve Syria's own interests as it focuses on internal stability and reconstruction.

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

If this report is accurate, it is a significant development. Al-Akhbar, a newspaper known for close ties to Hezbollah, reports that Iraqi government warned Damascus that Iraqi Shiite militias would intervene if Syrian government became involved in a confrontation with Hezbollah.

[جريدة الأخبار - Al-Akhbar @AlakhbarNews]

📰 علمت «الأخبار» أن الرئيس السوري أحمد الشرع تلقّى، خلال الأيام الماضية، «نصيحة» من الحكومة العراقية بعدم التورّط في الملف اللبناني، في ظل تصاعد الضغوط الأميركية والسعودية الرامية إلى دفع دمشق نحو لعب دور في المواجهة مع حزب الله. وبحسب المعلومات، حملت الرسالة العراقية «لفت انتباه» من أن «أيّ انخراط سوري في الساحة اللبنانية ستكون له انعكاسات مباشرة على سوريا نفسها». وأبلغ الجانب العراقي دمشق أنه «في حال تعرّض الشيعة في لبنان أو حزب الله لأي خطر ينطلق من الأراضي السورية، فإن فصائل المقاومة العراقية لن تبقى مكتوفة الأيدي» وأن «كل خطوة سورية باتجاه لبنان قد تعقبها خطوة عراقية تجاه سوريا».

وأضافت المصادر أن بغداد لفتت إلى أن انخراط دمشق في هذا المسار من شأنه أن يفتح الباب أمام تداعيات أمنية وإقليمية لا تصبّ في مصلحة سوريا، ولا تخدم مساعي تثبيت الاستقرار الداخلي أو إعادة ترتيب علاقاتها مع دول الجوار. وبحسب المصادر، أبلغ الشرع المسؤولين العراقيين أن الإدارة الأميركية طلبت منه بالفعل التدخّل في الملف اللبناني واتخاذ موقف ضد حزب الله، إلا أنه أكّد أنه رفض هذا الطلب.

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

https://t.co/xXaSZTZ6CK

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

https://t.co/pR6khvPeWa

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

The most realistic outcome of Zaidi's Washington visit is gradual reform backed by consistent US incentives, not unrealistic demands.

For Iraq, balance is not a diplomatic luxury; it is a geopolitical necessity.

https://t.co/Mp2CTx9sd0

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

https://t.co/5O7DBTiJvH

[MP Sarkawt Shams::النائب سەرکەوت شمس الدين @MPSarkawtShams]

The hypocritic and ignorant reporting in Western journalism is unbearable.

Islamic tradition and Mr. Khamnei’s religious position among Shia followers are things Western journalists need to educate themselves about.

Problems with Iranian politics has no or very little to do with showing respect to fallen figures in Islam and Shia sect.

[Ali Mamouri @AliAlMamouri]

@lcmporter I'm so sorry to hear this. Wishing you strength and resilience in the days ahead. Stay strong, and I hope everything goes well. All the very best and a speedy recovery.