Ali Said

Management Executive / Derivatives Trader / If it is to be, then it is up to me ✨️

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

Gold has closed below its 200-day moving average for 3 straight days.

Last time this happened was October 2023. A few weeks later the bond market nearly broke, the Treasury panicked, injected liquidity, and gold tripled over the next two years and never looked back.

Next week's Fed meeting is now one of the most important in years. Two outcomes:

1-If the Fed loosens policy, gold takes off and equities follow.

2-If the Fed holds firm, equities follow gold and Bitcoin lower.

The Fed meeting next week is the tell. Watch it closely.

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Gold

Gold has now fallen below its 200-day moving average by the largest margin since 2022 📉📉

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

Legendary economist Charles Goodhart put it plainly this week: the more you fund short and rates go up, the more you get killed immediately. He also said demographics alone will make the fiscal situation worse and worse and worse regardless of what AI does. And he dismissed the idea that AI will be disinflationary on any relevant time scale. Markets are not pricing any of this.

[Financial Times @FT]

Charles Goodhart: ‘Demography is going to make life worse and worse and worse’ https://t.co/fUhn86Oluu | opinion

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

My read on the macro environment this week (the plot thickens):

Hormuz is still closed. Three months in. The mainstream narrative says it's about insurance and US blockades. Chevron's CEO said this week that ships were attacked that never made the news. Iran still has fire control of one of the most important chokepoints on the planet. The gap between the official story and the physical reality is getting harder to ignore.

The energy inventory picture is deteriorating faster than most realize. US crude and petroleum product inventories hit 22-year lows. DUC wells, the fastest way to ramp US shale output, are at their lowest backlog on record. The shipping industry's head of freight at Mercuria is warning of regional fuel stock-outs by July and potential outages at major hubs by August or September at the latest. Singapore, the world's largest bunker fuel hub, just saw its second biggest product draw in history. There is no strategic reserve for marine fuel. Once it's gone, it's gone.

On the monetary order side, gold has now officially surpassed US Treasuries as the world's largest reserve asset, per the ECB. The USD's share of global FX reserves has fallen to 56%, and that chart does not even include gold. Central banks resumed net gold buying in April despite the war. COMEX gold open interest just collapsed to 13-year lows even as the price soared, which tells you price discovery is shifting from western paper markets to eastern physical ones. This has been in motion for over a decade. People are only now noticing.

Now for the part that hasn't fully landed yet: AI is simultaneously the most powerful economic force of our generation and a direct fiscal threat to the governments trying to finance it. The US government gets roughly 50% of its tax receipts from employment. AI is being built to automate 25% of current work hours, per Goldman's own economists, in an op-ed their CEO titled 'The AI Job Apocalypse is Overblown.' The contradiction wrote itself. What China did to blue-collar manufacturing between 2001 and 2020 is the analog. Instead of jobs going to China, they will go to the cloud. The Rust Belt playbook, now in a suit and tie.

Meanwhile AI stocks face three simultaneous headwinds that sectors priced for perfection are not allowed to have: ROI is disappointing, data centers are falling way behind construction schedule, and corporate bond issuance is now on pace to outpace Treasury issuance, creating a borrowing war for limited liquidity. Bitcoin, which I think of as the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity, is warning loudly. Rates up, USD up, everything else down, until the printing starts.

The printing will come. It always does. But not until there is enough pain to justify it politically into an oil spike and a rising inflation print. We are not there yet.

Positioning: Avoiding long-duration bonds. Cautious on AI-related equities despite the vertical move. Bullish on electrical infrastructure, which wins whether AI succeeds or stumbles. Significantly overweight cash, T-Bills, and gold. The bond market remains the tell.

#macro #globalmarkets #investing

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

Fists or handshakes? Dr. Pippa Malmgren on where the world is actually headed. Worth your 60 minutes...

[MacroVoices Podcast @MacroVoices]

MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome, Dr. Pippa Malmgren @DrPippaM & Jim Bianco @biancoresearch.  They’ll discuss whether AI and Robotics are going to take our jobs, Nuclear Fusion, Disappearing Scientists, and much more. https://t.co/u9agStOHXW

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

FOURTH TURNING: Hard not to feel disgusted after watching this gem from @camharvey: https://t.co/X7OuppPpdR

The SpaceX IPO offers robust evidence of our Socialism for the Rich (SpaceX insiders and accredited VC investors) & Capitalism for the Poor (non-accredited Main Street investors) theme. Yikes.

Two things I must say about this:

1. The restricted float (4%) relative to the MASSIVE market cap (a top-10 NDX constituent on day one) makes it likely that SpaceX stock bubbles in response to passive flows—which will be MASSIVE and MASSIVELY pulled forward by NASDAQ, Russell, and S&P bending their index-inclusion rules to facilitate this IPO.

2. The Cantillon effect from this IPO alone might go down as the single most regressive transaction in human history. VC LPs benefit from a carefully manufactured post-listing bubble. Main Street retail investors get left holding the bag. Yikes. If you think it’s a good idea to own a bunch of bonds in a country where this kind of corruption is not just occurring, but being encouraged by the people in charge, you’re drunk, high, or both.

Either get in on the stock market bubble game (we are; KISS features 60% Stocks), prepare for a societal unraveling (we are; KISS features 30% Gold and 10% Bitcoin), or both. We are. KISS features 60% Stocks, 30% Gold, and 10% Bitcoin when it’s max invested and 100% Cash when it’s min invested.

Our risk-management overlays, which determine how much to allocate to each asset at each interval, will come in handy throughout the upcoming secular bear market.

If you disagree, then buy as much SpaceX as you can afford to buy 90 days after the IPO and remeasure your wealth 18-24 months later.

—Skipper 💜

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

My current read on the macro environment (buckle up):

The world entered 2026 with the US running debt/GDP at 122%, a fiscal deficit near 7% of GDP, and a deeply negative net international investment position. In other words, we showed up to a poker game already down $22 trillion and decided to go all in.

Then the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of global oil and LNG flows through that strait. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, responsible for roughly a fifth of global LNG supply, was damaged for up to 5 years. Supply chains from fertilizer to semiconductors to jet fuel started breaking like New Year's resolutions. The IEA called it the greatest energy security threat in history. Markets largely shrugged and went back to watching AI earnings.

Here's the part nobody wants to talk about: the world holds roughly $70 trillion in USD paper assets while being structurally short energy. Energy sits higher on Maslow's Hierarchy than financial paper. Turns out people would rather heat their homes than hold Treasuries. Who knew. March 2026 saw the largest foreign UST liquidation in years. That's not noise. It's the system doing exactly what the math said it would.

Western policymakers now face a choice with no good options. Let yields rise with inflation and you get a sovereign debt death spiral. Print money to cap yields and you pour gasoline on the inflation already burning. History says they'll print. They always print. The only question is what triggers the moment they admit it publicly.

Meanwhile the S&P keeps grinding higher on AI earnings while real wages have turned negative and consumer confidence is at record lows. Wall Street and Main Street are not just in different zip codes right now. They are in different dimensions.

The monetary order is shifting whether we acknowledge it or not. CNY-settled commodity trade is accelerating. Central banks are buying gold, not Treasuries. US gold exports surged over 300% y/y. The multipolar reserve system isn't coming. It's already here and quietly having coffee.

Positioning: overweight gold, energy, and electrical infrastructure. Underweight long-duration bonds. Cash preserves optionality when optionality is the rarest asset in the room.

Watch the bond market. It doesn't lie, it doesn't spin, and it has no social media account to manage.

#macro #globalmarkets #investing #Buckleup

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/y8GUMjRDEj

[Ruben Hassid @rubenhassid]

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[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

@thoughtfulmoney @MilesFranklinCo @adamtaggart @thoughtfulmoney Can you pls ask @ASchectman @MilesFranklinCo what he thinks of Monetary Metals and how valid / real they are in paying a yield on holding gold ? Thanks

[Thoughtful Money® @thoughtfulmoney]

If you're worried about A.I. displacing tons of human jobs...you should be, warns economist Jeffrey Sachs

It's already starting to do so, at a faster pace than most realize

And nations have NO plan for dealing w/ the impending unemployment

WATCH: https://t.co/MNzC4YM291

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Here’s Everything We Need To Know To Solve The K-Shaped Economy Crisis (KEC)

If you’re in a position of power — be it federal, state, local, corporate, or media — please make time to review this video.

Once you review it and learn the root causes of the KEC, you’ll join us in deep study of a rich and global history that confirms there are only four potential solutions:

1. Cut (Paradigm B)
2. Grow (Paradigm C)
3. Print (Paradigm D)
4. Total War (Paradigm E)

Emphasis on “potential” because only two of these policy prescriptions create durable, positive outcomes for the families on the bottom of our increasingly and dangerously K-shaped society.

History has repeatedly confirmed that K-shaped societies are not acceptable outcomes for any society that is both modern and historically wealthy by its own standards.

Together, we can solve the KEC — hopefully before Paradigm D (i.e., what The Politicians will use to maintain power) and Paradigm E (i.e., what The People will use to take power back). Both are bad outcomes.

Godspeed, my friends.

Have a great day!
-Skipper 💜

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

@adamtaggart Time to change the usual corporate and elite aligned politicians' self serving their pockets.

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

@Degenvogue @FinanceLancelot This could be the worst positioning you can actually take in such an environment. Good luck with that!

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

If anyone has friends on the editorial teams of the @WSJ, @FinancialTimes, @barronsonline, @CNBC, @Bloomberg, or @FoxBusiness, please have them reach out to exclusively feature this timely OpEd I just penned regarding the @federalreserve after their policy mistake today. Enjoy!

---

The Honorable Jerome Powell
Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551

Dear Chair Powell:

Why did you cut 100bps last fall but claim to see little reason to cut 25bps today? It can be argued that your political posturing will all but guarantee the Fed’s independence is at least marginally eroded by the upcoming series of appointees to the board — including your replacement.

The increasingly likely erosion of Fed independence may prove to be more significant than “marginally,” and here’s why:

It is reasonable to question your data dependency because the labor market is worse now than it was then. Private Sector Labor Income grew 4.7% on a three-month annualized basis in Aug-24 — the last report you had on hand before your jumbo-sized 50bps cut last September. FWIW, 4.7% is comfortably above the pre-COVID trend of 4.3%. Fast forward to today, Private Sector Labor Income grew just 1.4% on a three-month annualized basis in June – the lowest rate since Jun-20. The -370bps MoM deceleration marked the slowest rate of change since May-22.

It is also reasonable to question your data dependency because inflation is lower now than it was then. The Super Core PCE Deflator — the inflation metric over which you purported to have the most control as monetary policymakers — was reported at 2.2% on a three-month annualized basis, 2.8% on a six-month annualized basis, and 3.2% on a YoY basis in Jul-24 (mean = 2.7%) — the last report you had on hand before your jumbo-sized 50bps cut last September. The Super Core PCE Deflator is currently mired in a downtrend at 1.1% on a three-month annualized basis, 3.1% on a six-month annualized basis, and 3.1% on a YoY basis as of May-25 (mean = 2.4%).

To be clear, we are not even advocating for cutting the policy rate. We do not believe the economy requires rate cuts for the business cycle expansion to persist over a multi-year time horizon and have remained the most bullish non-permabull on global Wall Street since May 3 (Google search or ChatGPT query “Paradigm C” for details).

What we are advocating is that you drop the “Mr. Tough Guy” act on inflation.

You had no problem being the most dovish Fed chair since the advent of using the policy rate as the primary tool for conducting monetary policy. Arthur Burns’ trough spread of -720bps below what would have been the baseline Taylor Rule estimate at the time looks hawkish compared to your trough spread of -1,040bps in Feb-22 — when you were still performing quantitative easing into a 40-year high in inflation.

You had no problem growing the Fed’s balance sheet to a peak of 36% of GDP in Nov-21 — a year in which the federal budget deficit clocked 10% of GDP, after a whopping 15% in 2020. These figures compare to just 5% in 2019, 4% in 2018, and 3% in 2017. The current Fed balance sheet/GDP ratio of 22% is still well north of the long-run mean of 16% for this time series — data which features your ultra-dovish focus on “maximum and inclusive employment” and green-energy-supportive monetary policy.

We do empathize with why you’re acting tough on inflation. Respectfully, sir, you are 72 years old and like most people in their 70s, you may be succumbing to the understandably human desire to build and preserve your legacy.

Additionally, the Trump administration’s tariff policy shock is significantly larger than anyone expected. Per the Budget Lab at my alma mater Yale, the overall average effective tariff rate of 18.4% is the highest rate since 1933. At some point this will feel like inflation as affected goods finally pass through the system.

But the preponderance of credible academic literature concludes tariffs aren’t inflationary. The PhD economists at your own institution agree — or at least they did agree prior to President Trump’s second ascent into the Oval Office, but that’s neither here nor there.

What is relevant here is the slowdown in Real Services PCE, which grew a paltry 1.1% on a QoQ SAAR basis in Q2 — just one-third of the 3.0% rate recorded in 2024. Real GDP ex-Government & Net Exports contracted at a -3.2% QoQ SAAR pace in Q2, the lowest rate since the COVID lockdowns of 2Q20.

There was a sound economic case to be made for lower policy rates today — we wouldn’t have had two Fed governors dissent for the first time in 32 years otherwise.

Specifically, the labor market is likely to weaken further on a lag to the near contraction in capex observed in the Q2 GDP data (0.4% QoQ SAAR vs. a pre-COVID trend of 3.5%), slowdown in corporate profits growth (S&P 500 constituents 6.4% YoY Q2-to-date vs. 13.6% in Q1 and 11.3% in 2024), and persistently elevated policy uncertainty (e.g., highest ever yearly average for the Baker, Bloom, and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty Index — a time series that includes data from both COVID and the GFC).

There is an equally unsound economic case to be made for keeping policy rates cyclically and structurally elevated today: the risk of “unanchoring” inflation expectations.

Putting aside the fact that we do not believe the mere ‘unanchoring’ of inflation expectations can cause persistent above-trend inflation in the absence of persistent above-trend credit growth in either the private or public sectors, Chair Powell, you and your colleagues are the primary reason this risk exists. You let the inflation genie out of the bottle by running historically expansionary monetary policy amid an obvious and historic expansion of fiscal policy.

This is why we strongly believe the administration is right to pursue regime change at the Fed. Whether or not they get it right is irrelevant at this juncture. Time will tell on that front.

Lastly, please do not interpret this as a personal attack on you or the institution. Rather, this is a data-driven perspective on how you and your colleagues at the institution have failed the American public and continue to fail the American public. Heaven forbid the FOMC be held accountable for the dramatic outcomes it contributes to in our K-shaped economy and asset markets.

Anyone reading this would be a fool to not agree that better monetary policy can potentially help engineer better outcomes for the consumers and businesses trapped on the bottom part of the “K”.

There are obviously no guarantees that the pending regime change at the Fed will accomplish this goal — or in life in general, save for the fact that two wrongs don’t make a right in Fed policy mistake terms.

Thank you for reviewing, and thank you for your service to the American public. Regardless of whether you and I see eye to eye on your still-developing track record, I recognize how hard your job is and appreciate your efforts nonetheless.

Thank you and God bless,

Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of @42Macro

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

@Vivek4real_ Because Q1 liquidity by central banks and treasuries was down and there's a quarter lag on risk assets. My view is Q3 would be good buying opportunity of BTC going forward

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Saving Capital Markets

[TopTradersLive.com @TopTradersLive]

America’s economic dominance is being tested, Europe is rearming, and China’s next move on Taiwan might be closer than you think.

In this new episode, @jam_croissant and I dissect the forces shaping global markets right now. Don't miss it!

https://t.co/DWJAnCXDfZ

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Somewhere in the Kremlin...

[Ali Said @AliSaidCPA]

@adamtaggart Well @adamtaggart, your team is doing a great job mate. Keep going!!