Craig Tindale

A few of my thoughts on hard-to-understand issues. I write only to help awaken everyone from their slumber.

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/vWLN07swYq

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

@Shaw14962888677 All they need is a war . Time pay the piper

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Shelton - "Things are getting pretty interesting out there, so buckle up ". This is the person who proposes a new gold standard, who was just hired by Bessent, telling you from a stage to "buckle up"!!!!! Read my essay on what she means https://t.co/syd4muoVAr

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/vqoxUWalcm

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

There are a bunch of things, probably too complex to fully understand with our current level of knowledge, but there are clues. Greenland meltwater, for example, is proven but way too complex for us to model; we know that when there is a large amount of meltwater, it dominoes into other phenomena, like large meltwater during the Younger Dryas, which caused mantle relaxation, which increased magma pressure and all the volcanoes went off, causing the north hem to suddenly cool from sulphur clouds at the same time as the AMOC shutdown, which all shows in the magnetic fields as does other stuff, moving large amounts of heavy matter around Earth, as in when you convert ice to sea watter changes the mass distrubution and rotation. I built a app that takes all the latest data and models the mass moving. The cause is ultimately a chicken-and-egg problem, I guess

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

You can’t have back up generators if the renewables fail because they burn diesel fuel . These are the morons who inhabit the Teal Party .

[Dr Monique Ryan MP @Mon4Kooyong]

Australia is the world’s biggest seaborne importer of diesel. Data centres using diesel generators for back-up power put more pressure on our fuel supply, increase our emissions and our power bills, and take advantage of the government’s diesel fuel tax rebate - a fossil fuel subsidy for large multinationals. In the last sitting week, I asked the government to stop approving new data centres with back-up diesel generation.

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

SMH , ABC and The Age - News Ltd are captured by the post-1990s orthodoxy. It doesn’t matter if you’re left or right wing the orthodoxy tells us to take on debt to bid up houses and live us a services economy that can’t make anything

The orthodox media and their experts defend a high-debt, asset-inflated economy where we stop making things, tariffs are always evil (despite being central to most civilisations’ rise), and Net Zero is gospel , instead of reporting what’s actually happening.

The system they’re using is failing and they’re not reporting it. It’s Will full blindness or stupidity. I can’t work out which.

The left is obsessed with redistribution they’ve taken their eye off: housing prices inflated far beyond wages, pricing homes out of reach for the young and poor. Then we borrow against those inflated values, creating modern debt-serfdom. All they want to do is tax and yell at billionaires .

The right have entirely missed that financialization is de-industrialising Australia . One industrial job create 1.6 services jobs , that’s 2.6 tax payers per industrial job that makes a huge difference to Australia fiscally .

The massive, policy-driven wealth transfer from non-owners and future generations to current asset holders banks and banks is simply the financialization of shelter .

It’s the very definition of financialisation to channel wages to non contributing banks .

The frame has failed since the 1990s. Nothing outside it is allowed.

Yet the RBA holds it in place for the benefit of its sponsoring banks

[Institute of Public Affairs @TheIPA]

“Australians don't trust what they're told anymore.”

IPA Deputy Executive Director Daniel Wild discusses the growing influence of independent podcasters like Sam Bamford and Big Chocky, explaining why Australians are increasingly turning to alternative sources of information amid distrust of legacy media outlets.

📺 Watch more: https://t.co/9StGYZgeYA

#Podcasting #Media #Australia

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

@acullen03 They’ll never get one -there was a lot of impure dodgy gold put in there in the 1930s . It probably needs to be recalled and re refined but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

In 1974, after Nixon refused to spend money Congress voted, Congress made presidents spend it by law. Russ Vought says that law is unconstitutional. He now controls when agencies get their money. Congress votes it; the White House decides if it’s spent. https://t.co/SMVDUGqFe6

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Russ Vought runs the White House budget office. In Sep 2023 he said America is in a “cold civil war”. From 3 Jan 2027 a Democratic Congress decides what public money is for, and his office decides when that money moves. That is Project 2027. https://t.co/SMVDUGqFe6

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

It’s weirder than that . It’s like you have to have intellectual blindness to accept some of the stories . Humans think in group think , where a whole bunch of ideas get attached to individuals as a group , it was probably a survival trait to identify with a bunch fixed ideas now it’s working against us . You see I’m opposite to many I think much more climate change is coming than we are prepared and it’s implausible from any angle to take action to avoid it . These politicians subscribe to a group think that makes this virtuous so they attach themselves .

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

@MarkPlackett1 @aaronsmith @cleannrgcouncil @TheICCT_Fuels @TheICCT @JMGlachant @CarbonBrief We have no plausible of making enough to matter https://t.co/MWz6E5jTHv

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

We are barely mining enough copper and REE to do small transition , let alone the transition contemplated . We need to mine about 100m ton of copper per annum we are barely mining 24mt . I can take you through every input , even then we need what Nordhaus calls carbon capture devices to make a different and only one of those set ups exists which cost $1.4b , we need 1800-2000 of these devices which would cost about +$30 t in capital . To store the CO2 would require 28000 wells .

The conceptual framework that we can change the outcome of climate change is magical thinking that humanity is indulging in to make itself feel better , it’s ironic that the extract at any cost and decarbonisation ideas share similar delusion thinking , that we can extract whatever we need to solve a problem that was created over centuries .

https://t.co/wDpfNm1Xdo

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Nobodies reading recent climate science at the moment , we missed the decarbonisation to avoid climate change window , in reality the window probably never existed , it was to far progressed for us to do much , it’s progressing much faster and worse than any of the models predicted . I’ve written extensively about the latest science , so we have politicians in zombie mode driving forward till someone or climate events pulls them .

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

The existing financial system is ending , we are transitioning to a new era and all new eras are hard to envisage before hand - that computational irreducibility thing makes it to complex to meaningfully conceptualise - not sure we can try - go through one if my climate essay , the one on the latest IPCC model is a rough model critique .

Taking Greenland ice melt -1st try they modelled it as a constant even melt , a decade later they go - that’s not good we better try again 2 nd try they do a thing called melt water hosing , which is like modelling melting as 20 garden hoses over Greenland , each hose calibrated to approx volume by a basic informed guess , but Greenland’s has a 46000 km coastline measured by shoreline , so 3rd try will probably be 1m garden hoses . Bit that still misses the actual topology because Greenland melt acts like a millions of beaver dams , which is really hard to model because the weight of mass it’s losing each is in the trillions of tons and it’s measurably moving the earths mantle and changing its geospatial wobbles.

So we are still cavemen insight stage

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

It’s a ridiculous idea conceptually to average a temp number for entire earth anyway , it was done to socialise the problem as a global one . The problem is that climate change doesn’t accelerate through averages it accelerates through system changes regionally , so while an average might show say 1.5C , regional extremes might be 4-5 -6C either way . If AMOC shutdown for example France or UK could become Siberian and Australia might get 2C and more moisture . The Amazon might revert to Savanah , so we have huge adaptation issues before us not avoidance .

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Yes if we apply the Google solution to the entire economy it’ll cost roughly $13-28 trillion . I did all the numbers in that essay I posted to you . The IPCC models are wildly inaccurate , what is forecast in 2100 is more likely 2040 . Hansen has been scream this at folk but nobody listens . Humanity is going on the severe climate change roller coaster whether it wants to or not .

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

@MarkPlackett1 The problem is renewables and decarbonisation are based on poorly understood and unexamined models . We can tie ourselves in knots it won’t change outcomes https://t.co/uctkSGAnPy

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Sure you’re going to get roughly half the co2 output from a gas fuelled Bloom for roughly double the price , but decarbonisation is nonsense it’s preposterously infeasible , Nordhaus and his cohort of economist built models that are literally impossible to deliver . The Paris Agreement is like saying I’m entering in the Olympic pole vault next Olympics I’m sure I can make it if I train hard . Climate change is way worse than any of the IPCC models predict and decarbonisation through renewable will make zero difference to those outcomes . Net zero is Valium

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/7p1XRccSpe

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

@WithAllB0ldness @futviewer45 They collapse demographically , they’ve killed off all their young men , they already had an imaging population problem now they haven’t got a young men either Ukraine is similar as well demographically

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Be careful when analysing bond yields through UST and extrapolating outcomes too narrowly. The death of the republic is a seductive narrative, but it's simplistic. Itis far more profound than a US collapse.

Robin Brooks is right that debt is the dividing line in this sell-off. But debt is the symptom. The real line runs between countries whose credit has funded productive capacity and countries whose credit has bid up assets that already exist.

Every government with debt bigger than a year's output has the same three exits. It can run surpluses, grow faster than its interest bill, or pay lenders less than the market would. Surpluses are gone almost everywhere, and growth is cancelling out against rising coupons. That leaves the third, and the third is what rising yields are pricing in, in every bond market at once. When they are all doing it, it's a different symptom and disease, though the disease is no less virulent.

Washington isn't defaulting. It's rewriting the conditions around the bond: buybacks, hints of fewer long bonds, the Fed buying bills, a bigger FIMA window so Japan can keep its Treasuries instead of selling them. It did the same in 1933, 1942, 1945, 1951 and 1971. Each time the coupon was paid in full, and a condition/s written around it moved.

Australia shows the same disease without a reserve currency to hide behind. Our banks wrote $3.21 of credit for existing homes for every $1 for industry. When yields reprice, a country can only refinance against what it actually produces, and paper wealth sitting on land can't take that strain. So while you might think the USD-denominated bonds are in the most trouble, the AUD is "saying hold my beer"

So this isn't America falling. The whole postwar settlement, where sovereign paper was the risk-free floor, is being repriced. Central banks have bought gold for nearly two years, China's for 22 months straight, and India has brought 104 tonnes home in six months. They aren't betting on one republic dying. They're insuring against every debtor paying less than it promised.

It's less optimistic than that it's the whole world falling.

Watch the conditions, not the coupon. The bond is the promise. The rights attached to it are the price.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

There's two kinds of countries in the global bond market sell-off: those that are seeing yields rise more than the global average and those that are below. The dividing line is debt. If ever there was an argument for responsible fiscal policy, this is it.
https://t.co/wqt7yH7lQZ

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

@DavidHa91035594 The state it gets to avoid bankruptcy . The wealth transfer already happened when economy was financialized , wage earners are the equivalent of 17th century serfs now except they work for bankers instead of the manor

[Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/vqoxUWalcm