ali talbi

Master in Applied Math - Sorbonne University
$SPX learner - student of life ( ie the Markets )

[ali talbi @Alitalbi73]

@TommiPedruzzi send

[ali talbi @Alitalbi73]

@s_mohinii pdf

[Roan @RohOnChain]

As someone who builds institutional level quant systems for prediction markets, this is the closest thing to a quant desk simulation I have ever seen publicly shared.

Runnable code for every model.
Read it before someone takes it down.

[SpruceHill Capital @Aksel465]

I built a tool to generate investment ideas that honestly became too useful to keep private, so I’m opening it up to everyone today free of charge.

The problem I kept running into was that traditional screeners are backward-looking. I was missing great setups because they're using historical data.

For example, take a company that looks unprofitable on paper. A standard screener sees negative earnings and filters it out.

But an investors can figure out that they just divested a money-losing segment and are actually trading at single-digit forward earnings.

That’s why I built QualScreener. It scans thousands of write-ups and uses AI to capture data that traditional screens do not include. It lets you screen for 'Single Digit P/E' based on the write-up, not the historical data. You can filter for 'Turnarounds', 'Deep Value' and so much more that other screeners can't.

It was supposed to be a small side project, but it’s become the best idea generator I’ve ever used. Obviously, AI isn't perfect; you still need to read the linked write-up to do your own DD (and give the authors the credit they deserve). But it finds the opportunities that raw numbers miss.

Give it a try and let me know what you think: https://t.co/IawJ8w7AVK

[AmsterdamStocks @AmsterdamStocks]

1/ Undervalued Poland: Part II 🇵🇱

Last year, my Polish "basket" of small-caps returned ~70% in 9 months.

Today, the market is overlooking 5 new companies with massive fundamental growth but compressed valuations.

Here is the breakdown of the 2026 watchlist:

[Blaze @browomo]

93% of Polymarket traders don't understand that they are simply food for algorithms. You are trading blindfolded.

This is a harsh truth you need to accept.

When you press the Buy button on a beautiful website you think you are playing against a guy just like you.
No. You are playing against a server that saw your order and executed it 0.3 seconds before you released the mouse.

The website is a storefront for tourists. Whales don't use the web interface.

Here's what the real game looks like that no one tells you about:

While you sleep with an open position:

> You: Pray there's no drawdown. Wake up with -40% because the site has NO stop-losses.
> Whales: Sleep peacefully. Their terminal automatically sold the position when it dropped 5% and bought the bottom.

While you try to enter a $5K trade:

> You: Pump the price with your own order getting terrible execution.
> Whales: Use TWAP. The algorithm breaks the purchase into hundreds of micro-trades entering without slippage like an invisible man.

You came to a gunfight with a knife. This is not unfair. This is the technological standard you simply didn't have access to.
Until this moment.

The only professional equalizer terminal with real backing from Alliance DAO and CMT Digital not an anonymous garage project:

<> TradeFox: https://t.co/YXKYWqkItc

This turns your trading from guessing into a system:

Smart Stop-Loss: Deposit protection while you are offline.

Trailing Stop: The robot moves the stop up following the price locking in profit.

Security: 100% Self-custodial. No KYC. Your keys = your money. Infrastructure that cannot be manipulated.

The market is divided into two categories:

Those who pay commission and lose their deposit.

Those who use professional software.

Stop being liquidity for bots. Arm yourself.

Not financial advice.

[Peter - Cracking Markets @SystematicPeter]

Pushing research on a swing breakout framework I wrote about last week (tendencies deep dive). I’m increasingly confident this can become a tradable system - but it’s NOT “ready-made” yet.

What you see in the screenshot is a simple portfolio test on 10 of the most liquid futures:

- Long on swing-high breakout / short on swing-low breakout
- Same rules + parameters across all markets
- Costs modeled: $10 round-turn commission + 2x spread as slippage
- No compounding (raw P&L curve)
- Risk logic: trailing SL = 0.5xATR, profit target = 1xATR

Result: Sharpe 1.96 AFTER costs.

That’s a serious signal that the idea has legs.

Still, research first - robustness, regimes, sizing, portfolio constraints.

Next week I’ll share a deep dive on how I select markets for a portfolio. Stay tuned.

[Spicy @spicyofc]

For Traders who want a Strategy to use

On my profile you can use the Articles section to find:
• how I trade Momentum (breakouts)
• how I trade Mean Reversion (reversals)

I've done the best I could to simplify the most important concepts into text/image format.

All the other Articles I wrote are about extra nuances that can help while trading both of these strategies.

Enjoy

[The Tail That Wags The Dog @TailThatWagsDog]

Claude, please take a look at the 1DTE options chain data.

Using a Black-Scholes-Merton valuation methodology, perform the comprehensive sentiment analysis that we've discussed previously ... and make trade recommendations based on options pricing and convexity.

[Conks @conksresearch]

"men used to go to war"

i don't like war. i like:
SFRZ6Z7 steepeners
Mar/Jun/Dec'26 SOFR flys
SERFFZ5F6 flatteners
5s30s steepeners
2y swap spreads

[Argona @Argona0x]

programmers are making $10k-200k monthly on polymarket

here's how they actually do it

///

1. arbitrage bots

buy YES + NO when combined price < $1

example: YES at 48¢ + NO at 49¢ = 97¢ total

you lock $0.03 profit per $1 no matter who wins

trader "distinct-baguette" made $242k in 1.5 months doing this

targets 15-min crypto markets where prices move fast

python script polls API every 1-3 seconds, executes when sum < 99¢

///

2. statistical arbitrage

find correlated markets that drift apart

"trump wins" vs "GOP senate control" should move together

when spread hits 4-7%, short expensive one, long cheap one

close when they converge

trader "sharky6999" made $480k scanning 100+ markets per minute

///

3. AI probability models

train ML models to estimate real odds from news/social data

if your model says 60% YES but market at 50¢, buy

trader "ilovecircle" made $2.2M in 2 months with 74% accuracy

uses ensemble of 10 AI models, retrains weekly

///

4. spread farming

buy at bid (5¢), sell at ask (6¢), repeat

or hedge across platforms (short polymarket, long binance)

trader "cry.eth2" made $194k with 1M trades

high-frequency loop via CLOB API

///

5. copy-trading automation

mirror successful whale traders automatically

scan profiles, execute proportional trades

one bot made $80k in 2 weeks copying near-resolved markets

///

tech stack:

python + requests library for API calls

web3-py for blockchain interactions deploy on VPS for 24/7 operation

polymarket has REST APIs for everything:

gamma markets API (prices/volumes)
CLOB API (place orders)
data API (track positions)

///

starting point:

> build simple arbitrage bot first
> fund with $100-1k for testing target high-volume markets (politics/crypto)
> expect 50-70% win rate but focus on positive EV

[gemchanger @gemchange_ltd]

Jane Street Bots already entered Polymarket xD

While most traders chase narratives, one Polymarket account turned 15-minute crypto prediction windows into a mechanical profit engine.

Trader didn't build a sophisticated arbitrage bot.

He found something simpler, momentum lag on ultra-short timeframes.

Win rate: 99.5% algo accuracy on a long run

The system lives in 15-minute Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP markets.

It scans every active micro-window on the platform.

And looks for one specific signal: volatility compression into directional breaks.

When crypto moves hard in one direction, these short-window markets lag by 30-90 seconds.

The order books thin out. Prices stick. The market freezes while the asset keeps moving

He watches for 3-5% gaps between where the market should be and where it's priced.

Then it waits. 8-12 minutes on average. The market catches up. Position closes automatically.

Average return per trade: 50-150%

While everyone's watching the 5-second chart, JaneStreetIndia waits for the 15-minute market to break from reality.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Money creation and credit creation in the private sector 101

There has been a lot of focus on the repo market lately. I get it. It's an important part of the capital markets in the credit creation process. But its growth and contraction is part of the credit creation process

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

I've been algorithmic trading for 5 years.

In that time, I went from 0 to 10+ live algo strategies making multi 6 figures.

Here are 12 things I wish I knew on day 1:

[Epic Man Thinker @NMasculine7]

Testosterone is what keeps men alive.

But in the last 50 years, levels have dropped by 30-50%

That’s why I found 8 foods proven by science to boost it naturally: 🧵

1. Ginger

[Spicy @spicyofc]

https://t.co/SuShmieGrA

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

Market Insights with The Carny – April 21, 2025

(Please like, RT and comment if useful, thank you!)

Gold is blasting through ATHs daily, the dollar’s in free fall, Europe’s emerging as the new “safe haven,” and U.S. debt’s flirting with junk status. That’s the mood as Trump hammers trading partners with late-night "Truth Social" posts and fires off tariffs like a Predator-style rail gun. There’s a ton to unpack, but I’ll keep it short.

Trump’s biggest believers are actually his haters: He’s one cog—an important one, sure—but he won’t flip the U.S. Treasury’s “safe haven” status in three weeks. This panic is probably peaking short-term, so if you’ve sidestepped it this long, don’t jump in now. While I never could’ve foreseen such an inept and reckless rollout of tariffs (with zero planning or basic logic), the global trade system’s been broken for ages. The American middle class got hollowed out in exchange for cheap crap, while the main focus became stonk prices.

Half my family died far too young because they were stuck on the wrong side of society. Thankfully, I dodged that fate by learning the game—where SPX and stock buybacks reign supreme. In the U.S., everything revolves around companies manipulating share prices and cranking out the cheapest possible goods with hidden slave labor—and somehow that’s fine. We're on a totally unsustainable debt binge, but hey, it makes investors "rich." This can't continue and must stop eventually, but just like any addiction, the first attempt to quit rarely succeeds—or looks smart.

Sure, DOGE and Trump’s tariffs were rolled out in a childish way, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t at least a step toward improvement. So the real question: Is the U.S. no longer the place to invest? Long-term, I think this is the time to acquire—not dump—U.S. assets, but you need to be extremely careful.

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Stock Market Outlook:

The first thing we need to examine is where money is likely to flow. Trump declaring simultaneous trade conflicts with multiple countries is a massive miscalculation on nearly every level. A targeted, single-country-at-a-time approach would likely have been far more effective. The hubris of taking on the entire world—including Canada and Mexico—all at once is astounding, even for him. But we can't ignore why investors flooded into U.S. assets in the first place: we treat capital better. Or at least we did, and I believe we will again once this disastrous rollout has had time to cool off.

How many designer handbags can the world pile into, with LVMH and Hermes as Europe’s top assets? Or slow-moving banks always teetering on the edge of an existential crisis? Or maybe green energy that gets swapped out daily for coal because Russia—one of your main energy suppliers—is at war with you? Sure, the U.S. might be slipping into disaster, but Europe has been stuck there for a long time.

Flows out of the U.S. make sense in the short term, but a year or two from now those same structural issues will still be haunting Europe. Trump might have hurt some feelings, but the foundations of U.S. capitalism survived plenty of presidents before him and will outlast him as well. Add in the EU constantly attacking its own growth companies—and American ones—daily, and you don’t get a place that treats capital well. Factor in immigration challenges, rising far-right political groups, social media censorship, and demographic shifts, and it’s clear many U.S. flaws are just as bad (or worse) in Europe.

Then shift to China, essentially in a deflationary depression regardless of how many numbers they fabricate, and the ROW trade narrative starts to crumble before it even gets its sea legs under it.

The easy U.S. passive-flows game is probably over, but tech—especially anything linked to AI—is far from done. Weak hands are exiting, pick-and-shovel names are getting tossed out, and the Mag 7 might continue to struggle, but there’s plenty of value emerging everywhere. We’re finally entering a true “stock picker’s” market, and that’s a good thing. For too long, target-date funds and low fees overshadowed basic common sense—like not every “tech” company (or a certain car company we won’t mention) deserves a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

So what do we do? Hopefully by now you have plenty of cash on hand, because we’re about to start spending it. It’s time to buy stonks—around the world—but not in ETF wrappers. You want real value, real names, and real companies with solid cash flow, strong growth potential, and trading below market multiples. Avoid overweighting the Mag 7, but still own “U.S. exceptionalism.”

The idea that three weeks of chaos will permanently change the world is foolish, borderline schizophrenic. The U.S. still holds plenty of cards, and yes, this situation could definitely get worse before it gets better. But the EU going into debt to build an army from scratch while still relying on energy from Russia and the U.S. isn’t exactly a long-term winner either. Sure, Europe is in a better spot now than it was last year, and you should aggressively buy the ROW trade—but believing the U.S. stock and debt markets won’t continue to be number one ignores logic in favor of hurt feelings. And that’s never a good long-term investment strategy.

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Bond Market Analysis:

I should probably just drop a **shrug emoji** and move on, but I guess we have to talk about bonds. This one's tougher, because if Trump continues down this reckless path, it's not inflationary—it's extremely growth-negative and deflationary longer term. Yet somehow, we've allowed silly, politically motivated nonsense like the UofM surveys to spark fears of stagflation, even while CPI and PCE fall off a cliff.

People pile into U.S. Treasuries for many reasons, but liquidity is key. You simply can't move the amount of money needed without completely blowing up prices if you tried to buy Italian or even German bonds. Those markets can’t handle the size, and the money has to go somewhere. If you seriously think investors will suddenly flood into Chinese bonds—issued by a tightly controlled government at low yields—this note probably isn't for you.

One thing you'll rarely hear in the trading business is "I don't know." Well, the fact is, I don't know exactly when to buy the U.S. 30-year—but what I do know is that TIPS near 3% real yield were an all-in bet. That’s exactly where you should have been putting money, because it makes sense on multiple levels.

As far as the bond curve goes, we're entering the phase of questioning who will buy U.S. debt long-term. Will it be banks, after regulations get cut as a wink from the government that the yield curve will soon reflect a better investing environment? Or will there be some Mar-a-Lago accord, doling out protection in a quid-pro-quo for buyers willing to hold non-yielding bonds? Doubtful—but honestly, at this point, who knows?

I've been long ZB/TLT twice over the past few weeks and timed the bottom damn near to the tick—but both rallies failed. If you're watching the tape, it looks like total trash. It can't hold a rally to save its life, and it's painful watching the DOM grind buyers into submission. I made money, but hardly enough to justify the risk at this point.

Again, I think this is all overblown and will resolve itself long-term, but at this point I have no clear timing. All the issues from the equity section above now apply to bonds, and aside from TIPS, I don't currently have strong insight on where to invest.

Buy real yields at 3% and head to the beach—that's my plan. If real yields get above 3% on 30-year TIPS, I'll literally liquidate everything I own and buy them.

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Currency Markets:

I fell into my own trap, underestimating just how momentum-driven this market has become. Everything—every asset—is a momentum trade now. I was short dollar pairs, screaming at anyone who’d listen that the dollar was overvalued as DXY raced toward 110, only to flip once it broke under 104. That was early, and while I took a few paper cuts on short-term counter-trend trades, holding my core short USDJPY position for months helped ease the sting.

I'm now essentially flat all currency trades, having closed out all YEN longs overnight. I have a tiny UUP position I planned to scale into over four or five trades but stopped after the first shot when I saw how terrible the tape looked. I also hold some puts in CAD futures, but they're lunch-money sized, hoping to catch a short-term headline or sentiment shift. Again, I think the dollar crash is overblown—but who knows when it'll stop? Clearly Trump wants a weaker dollar—but ironically, it's his haters who’ve elevated him to mythical status, believing his positions alone can somehow dismantle dollar hegemony overnight.

I'm largely on the sidelines until things clear up, although I strongly believe this hysteria is exaggerated. If you take away one thing from this note, it's that my instinct is to counter-trend trade everything, but my systems tell me it's still too early. This isn't a long-term changing of the guard, but short-term price always finds a way to extract maximum pain. Right now, I’m just hitting singles to stay fresh, and betting small.

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Commodities Market Analysis:

I'm an oil perma-bear—at this point everyone knows it—but even I was interested around $55. I've been negative on every oil rally since the blow-off at $120, but now I've finally shifted my focus. Fair value is probably somewhere between $60 and $65 right now, and if the economy avoids recession and we start seeing actual trade deals, that range could easily stretch toward $63–$68. Clearly Trump has cut some kind of deal with OPEC players (I refuse to add the "+") to soften the tariff impact, but that can’t last forever unless he starts landing some real agreements. The floor on oil should be around $60. Just be careful and make sure you're using the right options structures, or futures with wide enough stops, so a headline doesn’t blow you up.

Gold… what is there to say except if you're buying gold here, I think you're insane. I'm not a believer in the shiny rock on any level—but my rule of "never short something breaking ATHs" has saved me from plenty of pain. With TIPS offering nearly 3% real yield over 30 years, I just don't see the case for gold. I guess I'll have to "stay poor" on this one.

BTC is interesting—it's starting to detach from its relationship with NQ. I don't want to add here, since as many of you know I have a ridiculous average cost, but if we get one more really scary flush, I'd consider adding to the position. For now, I'm on hold but more interested than I've been in a long time.

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TL;DR Summary:

- Stocks: U.S. passive-flow dominance is fading; markets are shifting into a "stock picker's" environment. Short-term chaos is extreme but overblown. Buy global value selectively—not ETFs—and remain cautious on Europe and China. Long-term, the U.S. still has structural advantages despite current mismanagement.

- Bonds: Bond market panic driven by stagflation fears (sparked by weak surveys) looks exaggerated. Liquidity keeps U.S. Treasuries attractive. 30-year timing unclear, but TIPS near 3% real yields remain a must-buy. Short-term trades look poor, caution advised.

- Currencies: Dollar decline extreme but timing uncertain; momentum-driven market makes trading tough. Flat currency positions now, cautiously watching for reversals. Small bets only—don’t fight current momentum yet.

- Commodities: Oil has likely bottomed, with fair value around $60–65 barring further chaos. Avoid gold at ATHs; long-term real yields offer better returns. BTC becoming interesting again—watch closely for dips but don’t rush.

Stay tactical, patient, and value-oriented. Panic is high but likely temporary. Play it carefully, size down positions, and wait for clearer signals. Don’t sell now—if you wanted to panic, you should've done it earlier.

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If you’re interested in this type of market analysis, check out our premium service at @DSMMAprivate.

We offer quantitative models, market briefings, and technical setups. Link in Bio or DM me @NikLentz or @Jimmyjude13 to get started.

My market notes and breakdowns on Twitter/X will always remain free. The paywall is for those seeking deeper insights and private attention to excel in the markets.

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Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. Please trade responsibly

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== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

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Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz

[Jordan F @jordanfogel]

I've spent 6+ months studying and talking with market makers

and learned 2 ways to spot retail vs institutional trading

THREAD🧵
(How to know what's REALLY going on in the market)

[Jordan F @jordanfogel]

TIMEFRAME

TIMEFRAME

TIMEFRAME

Here's how I look at timeframes and make a bias in 5 steps: 👇