All Weather Portfolio

Liquidity | Credit | Cross-asset regimes U.S. regime scorecard (2× monthly) ↓

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

Credit growth continues to support economic activity.

Despite higher rates, commercial & industrial lending has resumed climbing while financial conditions remain relatively easy.

The credit channel is still open.

#Macro #Investing

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@MikeZaccardi Japan is another reminder that debt becomes a problem gradually, then suddenly. Rising yields are now feeding directly into the fiscal cost of servicing the existing debt.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@elerianm Oil down 3% helps the bond market in the short term. But the bigger issue remains fiscal credibility. Lower yields today do not solve the structural problem of persistent borrowing.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@GlobalMktObserv Gold positioning is getting crowded, but the bigger signal may be why investors want the hedge in the first place: fiscal risk, monetary uncertainty and rising demand for protection.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@DeItaone Druckenmiller’s point is simple: rising yields reflect fiscal concerns, not just liquidity. Buying bonds may treat the symptom, not the cause.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@Schuldensuehner Germany’s GDP headline looks better than the underlying growth mix. Net exports are driving growth while investment remains weak. The real test is whether capital spending recovers and strengthens the economy’s productive capacity.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

The key is confirmation.
Two related measures moving strongly above their historical averages is more informative than one isolated reading.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

Industrial activity is sending a strong signal.

Industrial production is now about 2.7 standard deviations above its mean.
Manufacturing is about 2.0.

Both are confirming the same direction.

That matters.

#Macro #Manufacturing

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@biancoresearch Gasoline is running above its normal seasonal path.

If that persists, the inflation signal may prove stickier than expected.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@Rory_Johnston The drop in global middle distillate exports is a meaningful signal.

It points to weaker physical demand and tighter supply dynamics, with implications for global growth and inflation.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@DeItaone The 30 year Treasury yield is becoming the pressure point.

If long end yields cannot break below 5%, the risk is that higher discount rates start forcing a broader repricing across risk assets.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@KobeissiLetter Foreign demand for US equities is becoming a macro signal.

Record capital inflows suggest global investors are still willing to absorb US equity risk despite rising valuation and policy concerns.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@LawrenceLepard Commodities are flashing a warning.

Higher commodity prices and long end yields point to rising macro pressure.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

A weaker dollar alongside elevated long term yields is a very different macro regime.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

The dollar has weakened sharply while the 30 year Treasury yield remains elevated.

That divergence matters.

Higher long term yields are increasingly becoming a fiscal and term premium story, not simply a growth story.

#Markets #Investing

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@zerohedge Japan’s bond market is the bigger macro signal here. Rising yields and a weaker yen could create significant spillovers across global markets.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@DeItaone Japan’s bond market is flashing a major regime shift. A 2.93% 10 year yield would have been unthinkable for much of the post 1996 period.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@Barchart Copper at record highs is another sign of tightening supply and stronger nominal demand. A trend worth watching.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@PeterMallouk The gap between reported inflation and the cost of living is hard to ignore. These cumulative increases explain why households still feel the squeeze.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

@AugurInfinity China’s investment slowdown is becoming a broader signal for global growth.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

The key is the transmission.
Liquidity was already improving. Now credit creation is responding more strongly.
That broadens the macro confirmation.

[All Weather Portfolio @AllWxPort]

M2 has been expanding.
Now credit is catching up.

Total Loans have accelerated sharply, suggesting stronger transmission from liquidity into credit creation.

That is another constructive macro signal.

#Macro #Investing