Elle

[Elle @AllezMontreToi]

EIA

Crude: 4.405M
Cushing: -1.314M
Gasoline: 0.688M
Distillates: -1.530M

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

With the caveat that I am anything but an expert on AI, based on some great conversations with our internal thought leaders in recent weeks it seems that there are two risks to the AI boom. One risk is the potential commodification of the US frontier models, which are big spenders in the AI space but which might have problems raising capital if their closed models get disrupted by the cheaper open-weight models. It appears this may be happening as the Silicon Data Token Expenditure index might suggest.

What could that mean for the hyperscalers and their capex? Most of this cohort consists of big companies with thriving business, which could survive a downtick in capex (if not benefit from it).

The other risk may be all the capital raising that is happening in the bond market. The Semiconductor Lease Rates chart shows half a trillion of issuance this year and possibly more next year. What could happen to the value of this debt when the semiconductor leases are up for renewal against an uncertain depreciation and supply backdrop? For now, chip rental prices are holding steady and demand seems to be way ahead of supply, so perhaps this is a risk down the road.

[Elle @AllezMontreToi]

Carry Traders Pivot to Swiss Franc After Yen Volatility Spikes

[Andrew Granato @agranato42]

New w/ @PranjalDrall: Private Credit's State Backstop: How Private Equity Socializes Risk Through Insurers. It's about how insurance insolvency, tax, and financial-regulation law have subsidized PE's takeover of life insurance and become the submerged law of private credit.

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

I genuinely don’t understand this:

1. Google AI Mode has access to tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and TONS of sites that ChstGPT and Claude can’t access
2. If you’re in Chrome it is one million times easier to use the search bar for a query
3. It is objectively better for all local and navigation searches

Not using Google anymore is literally just using the internet in a worse way. Not even picking on Signull I’ve seen plenty of “tech forward” people say this. It makes no sense to me.

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

Iran was on its last legs and ready to collapse until the U.S. came along and gave it a life-line in the form of the Iran Deal: $150 billion

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

With the May PPI and CPI in hand, forecasters expect core PCE to print around 0.35% in May.

This would raise the y/y rate to 3.4%. The six-month annualized rate would climb to 4.1%, the highest since June 2023.

Both measures were below 3% in the year-earlier period.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

SpaceX's market cap crossed above $3 trillion today in after hours trading.

That's higher than the market cap of Amazon ($2.65 trillion) & Microsoft ($2.97 trillion).

Microsoft Sales: $318 billion
Microsoft Net Income: $125 billion

Amazon Sales: $743 billion
Amazon Net Income: $91 billion

SpaceX Sales: $19 billion
SpaceX Net Income: -$9 billion

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

Step one was the censorship at the app level. Because people are able to bypass that they are now censoring at the device/OS level (Step two). Step three is censorship at the ISP level. Think China. All sites pre-authorized by a "Ministry of Digital Safety" entity.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Looks like the US blockade is still, in fact, in place.

Nothing changing until Friday.

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

I am being told that Trump's 100 million barrel figure here is roughly accurate, and that over the past 3 weeks, huge dark fleets from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), escorted by U.S. Navy, have traversed the Hormuz Strait (as high as 7 million barrels per day)

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

S&P 500 returns this decade:

2020 +18.4%
2021 +28.8%
2022 -18.2%
2023 +26.2%
2024 +24.9%
2025 +17.8%
2026 +10.7% (so far)

15.7% annualized for the 2020s and nothing close to a boring year yet

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Since the Iran war began, there has been a 100 bp swing in Dec 27 SOFR implied rates - from 75 bps of cuts to 25 bps of hikes.

My guess is that we will see at least half of this unwind.

For 2 yrs, it has been a good bet to fade the rate hike calls. This regime is still intact.

[Insider Paper @TheInsiderPaper]

BREAKING 🚨 IRAN-US PEACE DEAL

- Mediator Pakistan announces ceasefire in Mideast conflict, including Lebanon

- Mediator Pakistan announces US-Iran deal has been reached

- US and Iran to sign peace deal in Switzerland on June 19: Pakistan

- Trump says deal with Iran is 'now complete'

- Trump says Hormuz open and US blockade lifted, 'let the oil flow'

- Vance says plans to attend Iran signing in Geneva, 'possible' Trump could

- Iran says it has achieved 'great victories' in war with US

- Iran says agreement with US immediately ends the war

- Iran says will hold talks within two months with US on 'final agreement' to settle war

- Trump says Iran deal will bring 'peace' to whole Middle East

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Iran-U.S. "peace deal" to be signed on 19 June in Switzerland, says the Pakistani PM.

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

We went from ‘the Gulf States are pressing the US to finish the job’ to ‘shut up and take my money’ and not enough people are talking about it

[Ramez Naam @ramez]

AI being winner-takes-all is the scenario most likely to create an unfree society and thus most likely to incite a Butlerian Jihad.

Fortunately, AI tech and economics don't show strong network effects or any sign of natural monopolies.

Barring that changing, the surest path to a monopolized AI world is to give governments too much power over AI.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Gonna go out on a limb and say that there's still some room between Tehran and Washington.

Almost like it's the same exact points of disagreement as have always been.

Iran MOU provisions // US MOU provisions

[Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity]

A growing number of central banks have shifted toward tightening.

[Mark W. Yusko - Two Point One Quadrillion @MarkYusko]

Few Truer Words Spoken

Insiders Don’t Sell At Bottoms