nearly everything that is a good repeatable trading idea looks like:
"under <some circumstances> this thing is likely to be too cheap/rich because <some people> are being forced or greedy or stupid... so the thing is more likely to go up/down in the future"
Todays selloff in $SNDK $MU were not random, there were already multiple tells heading into the day:
- $META news of selling compute questioning datacenter scarcity thesis and causing a selloff in all AI adjacent stocks the day prior
- $EWY Kospi futures breaking defined consolidation range and multiple moving averages
- $WDC a posterchild of the memory stock rally that clearly went parabolic on the weekly timeframe
- $SNDK potential to break the uptrend and first lower low break as well as 20ema trend break (sell signal for any trend follower)
- In addition long semis have been the most consensus trade for months such that everyone is long and there's no one left to buy, and all good news is priced in ($MU selling off on earnings)
Btw none of this is hindsight as I suggested the $MU top potential on the day of earnings (https://t.co/EbE4O76gjs)
Even in a predominantly swing long bull market environment, there's more to trading than just waiting for some mechanical exit under a moving average.
Ignoring market context, narratives, news failures, and positioning is doing a disservice to the process. Those nuances allow you to outperform as a discretionary trader and even identify occasional tactical short opportunities.
Had a few. Have one currently. Usually grab one during summer time and sell in winter.
They are indeed the best performance you can get for the price. Rocket ship go kart, nimble and subtle speed.
No one holds them because no one wants to trust the reliability.
Had mine for a week and parked it on a slant for a few days, got into it for full suspension failure because the sensors were off tilt for a few days. Went away after a few cycles, but they are just very very finicky cars. Not something I like to hold for very long, but a blast while you have them.
@MoonOverlord Sciatica can be resolved or alleviated with acupuncture and something called fasciablasting. Itโs often caused by knotted or tangled fascia pulling on nerves. You can also eat less carbs and sugars to reduce inflammation, which would also help.
It is setup specific. In some setups I sell in 3 to 5 . In some setups I sell on target reached.
If you are round tripping you are probably trading magnitude move with duraration setups stops.
Most active traders sell in to strength as against selling in to weakness. Many of us peel our positions in to strength as a solution to this problem.
Beyond a certain level profit I do not want to give it up. Selling in to strength is practical solution most traders use for that.
I am once again reminding you that getting artificial dopamine hits inside non-stop all day is frying your chimp brain more than you dare to imagine.
They can literally cook your entire life.
Heck, in general, if you are depressed, unmotivated, lazy, and even donโt enjoy life much immediately cut out all artificial dopamine hits and go outside.
You might laugh at this initially but give it 3 weeks and you will never look at social media the same.
Itโs basic science.
D2 receptors, for example, are susceptible to downregulation from overstimulation, artificial blue light is shown to lead to a 30% reduction of tyrosine hydroxylase-positive neurons in the substantia nigra in many animal models etc.
So you can not live an overstimulating life indoors and wonder why you donโt derive pleasure from anything natural or why you're not driven to create something.
OK, so boredom is a signal that adaptation/normalization has occurred and you need to move on or improve your current environment and its conditions. But then, you pick up supercomputer, food, drugs and that drive is reduced for a couple of hours. And then again and again. Your baseline essentially remains stagnant because you're muting the desire to improve your material and psychological conditions because you don't let boredom do its thing!
๐ค ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ ๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป (๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐) ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ผ ๐ฑ๐ผ.
๐๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐ฑ๐ผ ๐ถ๐.
Itโs scary. Itโs one thing taking a big loss, but itโs another thing holding a big profit, and especially if itโs a profit thatโs bigger than youโve seen before. Thatโs one of the most stressful things ever. Itโs just so scary, but you really need to believe it can go further in your direction.
Thatโs really what happened on TSLA. I was up 650k, I thought it was gonna go down another 50, 100 bucks, and then it just reversed back higher and I gave back most of that profit. But then I re-nailed it, and that was a big one. You really gotta believe it will do what you think it will do.
This is exactly the kind of stock @OliverKell_ talked about in his 2021 interview: a stock that can double in price in 3 months, but still give you just a low 10% win rate over 20-30 attempts, with low profit factor, while putting your equity through a -5% drawdown.
Recent price linearity is a very important factor in stock selection, it can skew your win rate % heavily.
@Dogtor01416800 Also must account for the speed of the moves, and liqudity, for your backtest...manual/semi-manual is great imo, but maybe im just lazy stupid to automate some๐