Almun

No you?

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@vdmandele @FDNyenrode Any chance you found the report? Was Looking for it but could not find it.

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@finphysnerd 3,5% free float ;)

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@ReneSellmann @willschoebs https://t.co/gPYkGuU6sT

[kjnk @kjnkjp]

Many focus on Timee 215A's (1) defensible moat x high gross margin and (2) secular tailwinds, but are ignoring cash flow dynamics. Look at 'advances' growing more than cash. This is because Timee pays workers upfront, and collects from clients later -- effectively a 'BNPL of short-term labor'.

1. Q3 was likely last clean margin print. Timee needs to ramp investments to penetrate larger logistics clients and expand into new verticals. I.e. larger GMV = larger advances, but margins down due to investments to ramp growth again.

2. The 'easy wins' in AA per GMV growth likely peaked. Now need to dig deeper into BPO-like work for logistics + F&B. Price-setting power is slightly shifting toward client side (larger clients can negotiate lower take rates), while cash flow dynamics stay the same.

3. Easier way to put it: Working-capital intensity = ΔAdvances ÷ ΔGMV. Working capital intensity is about to worsen due to (a) higher wages (b) more frequent shifts at increasingly (c) concentrated logistics clients, meaning each incremental ¥1 of GMV will require disproportionately more cash to front wages [even as headline revenue growth slows and margin tailwinds from cost cuts fade.]

I think Timee stock might pop but this will likely be a dead cat bounce. There is good reason for Mercari and others to exit this capital intensive [gig work BNPL biz] that increasingly constrains cash as you scale (more investment) and penetrate deeper (less pricing power but higher GMV).

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@CFAs4CFPs @AlvaroJS90 Their cr energy holding will file for bankrupsy

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@safe_our_souls How do you like the stock from a fundamental Perspective?

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@Alpha_Theory the link is broken, i cannot access the Part1 even if i select it within the process, i just get the part 2

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@AltayCapital Did you find a list of companies owned by Hikari by any chance?

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@willschoebs hey, any idea what their longterm margin could look like? interested in basically all margins to get a feeling for the valuation today, thanks a lot

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@GSpier She is a woman and it is painfull to See you Posting stuff like this. Do some Research...

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@j4bert0 @mihaljevic Massive discount to nav...

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@todd_harrison For foreigners it is still illegal as you have to grow the Cannabis yourself.

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@RolfOptions Hello, which program do you use for those backtests?

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@StormFuryy Denke gute Entscheidung, Savior war aus meiner Sicht der schwächste bei Euch.

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@casperj33081634 For context you should at least post the enery mix from Germany which will show that your argument is pretty much bs. It took years till the first reactors where shut down but the price was spiking already before.

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@MitAktien Was man nicht alles mit populistischen Schwachsinn so erreichen kann. Sehr stark 💪

[Braden Dennis 📊 @BradoCapital]

Holy sh*t. ChatGPT for Finance is an industry defining moment.

"How many Model 3's is Tesla selling? And what are Elon's thoughts on the car?"

Make sure you're following along as this will be publicly available for free next week.

Retweet and I'll send you it early. 👋

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@42MacroAware @42macro i guess it is a typo, i think i should be highest probability?

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@frankinvesting What are your assuptions for their FFO/year? I was only looking very shortly to their cashflow/income statement. It seems around 70-90M? Their CAPEX is around 30M/Y. That would leave them with 40-60M to "play around" but they need to spend how much on their debt? 2021 it was 57M?

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@frankinvesting Look at their debt and interest expenses.

[Almun @AlmunDonk]

@piWiesentheid @IRGCAP With the massive Discount to nav, they should use every penny for buybacks.