July Portfolio Update
• June: -8% vs $SPY +1%
• YTD: +41% vs $SPY +11%
• 3-Year: +297% vs $SPY +90%
Despite heavy AI infra exposure, only -8% in July.
Why it worked:Dual strategy — software + semis (plus some fintech).
Trimmed semis near peaks → built ~25% cash.
Hyperscaler Capex Guidance (Q2 2026):
• $AMZN $220B
• $GOOGL $200B
• $MSFT $175B
• $META $138B
Total: ~$733B
More important:
$AMZN addressed the AI ROI fear head-on.
“On average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even on that investment.”
ROI is strong.
$SNDK down >11% after Morgan Stanley flags potential memory pricing inflection.
Yet the setup remains strong:
• $42B RPO backlog
• Pricing floors in place
• Exploding AI demand
Net income expected: $0.8B (Q4 2025) → $8.1B (Q4 2026).
$GOOGL Q2 2026 visualized — monster print!
• Revenue: $119.3B (+24%)
• Gross Profit: $73.9B (+29%)
• Cost of Sales: $45.9B (+19%)
• Net Income: $112.2B (+298%)
The $98B “other income” came mainly from gains on stakes in $SPCX and Anthropic.
AI + investments delivering.
$GOOGL
This continues Alphabet's strong run:
Q1 2026 had $109.9B revenue (+22% YoY) and $5.11 EPS, with Cloud at $20B (+63%). AI investments (Gemini, TPUs, infrastructure) are driving Cloud backlog growth and Search enhancements, but they're also fueling elevated CapEx
$SPCX gained the equivalent of two $RKLB in market cap yesterday.
Aerospace Size:
• $SPCX: $1.6T
• All others: ~$1.6T (est.)
Dominance clear. Space economy accelerating.
$TSM Q2 2026 One-Pager just published!
Deep dive on key metrics, financials & valuation.
AI foundry leader with strong margins & demand.
Next up: $GOOGL & $NOW.
Stay tuned for more infra/AI coverage.