Alpha Window

Data oriented analysis --- Deep Dives
Here to spread awareness
E/acc

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

- $TLT Volume is king 📢
Is government confidence back?
_____________________________________
$TLT Over the past 4.5 years we see -
3+ years of heavy selling
1+ year of strong accumulation
(Volume showing serious interest around $89)

What is TLT and what defines its value.

- Think of $TLT as our gauge for the markets confidence in the governments ability to pay long term debts

Looking back into 2020, if we zoom out further, there was a sharp rally on the back of immediate stimulus.
The concern and heavy selling began when the market realized how reckless the Biden admin was with spending. Harming the governments reputation to pay down long term debt.

Fast forward to Nov 2022, when $Trump announces his candidacy. This is where our key level of $89 comes into play (Marked in green)

Even though TLT rallied a bit and faded, Trumps presidency was very speculative at the time

Finally, taking a look at the last 1.5 years (Marked in white) The sentiment is clear, the demand is there and the most traded level is our $89.

Buying $TLT = Buying confidence in the governments ability to pay down long term debt.
When we consider what $DOGE is doing with Elon Musk at the helm, it becomes a lot easier to see the opportunity here.
$MSTR $BTC $SPY $QQQ
-Follow the data
⚔️Trust Data, Ignore Opinions, Stay Green⚔️

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

1 year update - 🕚 $TLT

While retail narratives and sentiment continue to do their jobs

Data continues to be king.

"Fear of looking wrong: The very words used here - uninstitutional, idiosyncratic, imprudent, lonely, and uncomfortable - provide an idea of how challenging it is to maintain non-consensus positions.
But to do so is an absolute must if superior performance is to be achieved"
-Howard Marks

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA $BTC #DYX
⚔️Trust Data, Ignore Opinions, Stay Green⚔️

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

- $TLT Volume is king 📢
Is government confidence back?
_____________________________________
$TLT Over the past 4.5 years we see -
3+ years of heavy selling
1+ year of strong accumulation
(Volume showing serious interest around $89)

What is TLT and what defines its value.

- Think of $TLT as our gauge for the markets confidence in the governments ability to pay long term debts

Looking back into 2020, if we zoom out further, there was a sharp rally on the back of immediate stimulus.
The concern and heavy selling began when the market realized how reckless the Biden admin was with spending. Harming the governments reputation to pay down long term debt.

Fast forward to Nov 2022, when $Trump announces his candidacy. This is where our key level of $89 comes into play (Marked in green)

Even though TLT rallied a bit and faded, Trumps presidency was very speculative at the time

Finally, taking a look at the last 1.5 years (Marked in white) The sentiment is clear, the demand is there and the most traded level is our $89.

Buying $TLT = Buying confidence in the governments ability to pay down long term debt.
When we consider what $DOGE is doing with Elon Musk at the helm, it becomes a lot easier to see the opportunity here.
$MSTR $BTC $SPY $QQQ
-Follow the data
⚔️Trust Data, Ignore Opinions, Stay Green⚔️

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@stocksprofesso While I agree fundamentally, Japan raising rates on the 19th is a real concern

Our fixed rate borrower is at risk and stagflation is becoming a real threat

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@AnneMarieTrades Thank you for re-posting this.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@MAGAVoice UK and EU are not the same. UK has always been a strong partner

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@elonmusk I'd hope not, you own it.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@amitisinvesting It's becoming difficult to tell what is pre-emptive to elicit a response and what is reactionary.

Whiplash headlines.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@zerohedge What's the next move

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@leia_smith1 @japdongsanee Are you an anti-bot, bot? lol

Seems like your account is a bot based on calling out bot accounts for engagement.

If so, well done.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@japdongsanee @pharmkarim79 lol. opps

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@pharmkarim79 @japdongsanee Checkout the edu post pinned on my page, it's about TLT
and what drives it's value

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@newsomenuggets It's not who you were, but what you do that defines you.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@elonmusk Can sum it up in 3 words

Board of directors

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

The fed is data dependent

We NEED to cut rates and aggressively facilitate new debt before we force ourselves into hyper inflation and a never ending game of catch up.

So then, the goal becomes - Present awful data to the fed and force rates down/

Everything is going exactly as planned and economic pain is part of what is necessary for rates to be forced down.

Covid liquidity protection programs got us here.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

Yes, that it how it works on paper.

In a case like this, It may be posturing.

Needing to incentivize buyers is not the issue, the issue is if we don't force rates down SOON, we will force ourselves into hyper inflation as liquidity protection programs end from Covid (in april) bringing over 2.8T in short term debt to maturity.

It's possible this is a way to say, we need emergency debt more than security right now.

This is speculative but trying to make sense of everything isn't exactly answered right now by text books.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

There's another potential here.

Banks are heavily sided with Trump and both need rates to drop to facilitate new debt before we force ourselves into hyperinflation and a never ending game of catch-up

This could be a way to push the fed into acting.

The fact that TLT rallied as a result of no bids hints that long term debt sentiment continues to strengthen

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@kpak82 Nice,

I put out a very different thesis on TLT, pinned on my page, feel free to check it out and re-use and edu content

It's almost time.

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@LadeBackk Proper bears are rotating into defense and getting paid for it while valuations in tech/AI continue to extend

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@daggercapital @GrigorGrigoria2 Zooming out a bit, looks good as well

Weekly

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@APompliano Incredibly proud to be American !

Happy Sunday 🇺🇸🦅

[Alpha Window @Alpha_Window_]

@Fibonacci_TA Thanks! I put out a somewhat fundamental/technical thesis on TLT.

Feel free to reuse any content.