Alpholio

Alpha + Portfolio. Tweets, RTs and replies are not investment advice or endorsement.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@WCInvestor By this token, you can question every rational financial decision based on numbers, which makes no sense.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@charliebilello If comparing dollar amounts over periods of time longer than a few years, always adjust for inflation.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

In August 2025, import prices of consumer goods excl. automotives were the same as in February (index = 110.1). So, who is paying the tariffs?

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@awealthofcs The first table in your post is supposed to show nominal returns but it shows real returns (same as the second table).

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@charliebilello Distro of returns is not normal and sometimes not even monomodal (has multiple peaks). In addition, the random process is non-stationary. Almost all simulations make such assumptions, so they are effectively useless.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@PeterMallouk Misattribution.
https://t.co/31WGj0fc0w

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@dollarsanddata ...and boomers "actively subsidized" both the older and younger generations, while diligently saving and investing as much as possible, which will eventually be transferred mostly tax-free to younger generations thanks to the step-up basis and Roth. So, stop whining!

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@Vanguard_Group Instead of celebrating, finally fix the bugs on the Performance page of your website: incorrect counting of foreign dividends and taxes as deposits/withdrawals and date range radio button getting out of sync when an account filter is applied. Reported those back in May!

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@dollarsanddata More like 68% of the time: https://t.co/cpm4SlIf3V
So, according to Kelly criterion one should DCA 36% of the remaining investible funds at a time.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@bowenpayson @nathanbaugh27 Bowen, can you please have this bug fixed ASAP in Amazon Music app on Fire Stick/Cube? Plenty of users complaining. Customer Service ineffective. See https://t.co/f7WhxzFBjq

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@ericwallerstein @GRogow @RyanDezember @_willparker_ A ~20-year spending timespan without adjustment for inflation?

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@WCInvestor So where to invest internationally? Not in the EU or UK (market dominated by finance and old industrials with hardly any leading tech, subject to energy and war threats; all amply documented in The Economist). Not in Japan (once-dominant companies facing adverse demographics).

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@PhysicianOnFIRE @Vanguard_Group Vanguard's service has been deteriorating for years. They've gotten so big they do not care about even the HNW clients.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

"Passive" ETFs *actively* manage security baskets and cash to improve liquidity.
Average bond ETF has a tracking error (TE) of 36 bps annually relative to its underlying index, and the TEs are significantly larger for ETFs holding less liquid bonds.
https://t.co/IbuY3MxYqg

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@IvanTheK Had to explain to two CPAs that US territory bond interest is exempt from state and local income tax, too. They botched tax returns and were fired.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@jasonzweigwsj @anfuller If you want to go to all that trouble to lend the gov't your money at a 0% *real* fixed rate for at least 5 years (to avoid interest penalty) and, preferably, for 30 years, go right ahead...
https://t.co/yLQtb5fNrz

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@JamesSurowiecki 30 fps is also fake since the standard/traditional rate is 24 fps.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@WCInvestor Xfinity Mobile (on Verizon network) + Xfinity Internet only. Don't use much mobile data (family plan comes with 1 GB/mo anyway); it automatically connects to Xfinity WiFi hotspots everywhere. 3 lines w/unlimited voice+text cost ~$29/mo in total.

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

75 bps Fed rate ranges?

[Alpholio @Alpholio]

@charliebilello What is the mean and std dev of this time series?