Brian Aluda HQ

''Let the lie come into the world let it even thrive but not through me'' ⚽️𝕏📚Fanonist☭

[Math Files @Math_files]

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.

So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.

Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?

Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.

For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.

Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.

Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.

[Lost Temples™ @LostTemple7]

Some Videos & Images you've probably never seen before.

1. Saddam Hussein

This was his last public appearance before the Fall of Baghdad. The footage was filmed in Baghdad, 15 minutes away from American troops.

[Dr. Miguna Miguna @MigunaMiguna]

In June 2024, I proposed to former CJ @WMutunga, @dkmaraga and senior advocates like Dr. John Khaminwa and Prof. @ProfKibwana, that because it is close to impossible for the tyrannical regime to subject them to the kind of barbarism it commits against our youth, they should wear their gowns, invite senior clergy like Dr. Timothy Njoya, lawyers and other Freedom Fighters to join them in LEADING a MARCH on the @StateHouseKenya, in order to TRIGGER a wider and an irreversible revolutionary EARTHQUAKE, but they have neither responded nor taken action.

I am ready to join in this urgent final revolutionary push to victory.

I am fully aware of the power, vitality and commitment of the revolutionary GenZs.
However, the struggle for liberation is a collective effort which cannot and must not be left in the hands of one generation.

Let’s plan something big and historic! Viva!

cc: @WMutunga
@dkmaraga
@ProfKibwana
@DrRoselynAkombe
@MigaiAkech
Khaminwa, etc.

[Cyprian, Is Nyakundi @C_NyaKundiH]

Goebbels Reviews June 25th.....A Failed Attempt at the Useful Fire

When governments begin to lose control of the truth and public perception starts slipping beyond their grip, they rarely admit failure or confront facts directly. Instead, they turn to older methods that rely less on logic and more on spectacle. One of the most dangerous tools in that arsenal was once described by Joseph Goebbels, the infamous propaganda minister of Nazi Germany, as the useful fire, a staged disruption, a flash of violence, not meant to reflect reality, but to drown it out in smoke and fear.

What unfolded in Nairobi during the recent protests followed this exact formula. From early morning to late afternoon, Kenyans across the country demonstrated with remarkable calm and unity. The marches were peaceful. The crowds were disciplined. There were no signs of looting or disorder. The footage was clear, the testimonies consistent, and the spirit unshaken. Then suddenly, almost as if someone flipped a switch, a few scenes of chaos emerged. Specific businesses were targeted. Isolated incidents of looting occurred. And within minutes, headlines changed. The peaceful uprising was replaced in the narrative by images of broken glass and burning shops.

But this is where the illusion collapses under scrutiny. The Nairobi CBD was locked down. Entry points were sealed. Roads were blocked. Security forces were deployed heavily. Movement was nearly impossible for the average citizen. Which begs the question, who had the means, the clearance, and the protection to move people past barricades and into the center of the city, right when the regime needed footage of unrest?

No ordinary group could have pulled that off. Only the state, with its access to logistics and enforcement structures, had the capability to insert actors into restricted zones and remove them quietly after the job was done. And yet, despite controlling every inch of the city, the state still failed to protect businesses, even as it later claimed the violence was the fault of protesters. This contradiction is not just suspicious, it is strategic incompetence disguised as confusion.

Goebbels would have watched all of this with a grim frown. He would have asked why the chaos was introduced so late in the day, long after hours of peaceful footage had already saturated social media. He would have wondered why the propaganda machinery allowed the narrative to slip away before their version was ready. In his doctrine, propaganda must lead. It cannot follow. It must flood timelines before the truth is even fully formed. But in this case, TikTok, WhatsApp, and X were already filled with real videos, real testimony, and real solidarity long before the lie arrived.

He would have also criticized the randomness of the damage. If you are going to blame protesters, then the destruction should appear to serve their cause. In this case, it felt hollow and disconnected, just enough to justify a press release, but not enough to convince a country that had seen the real story for itself.

Even worse, he would have been alarmed at how police were captured either standing down or walking casually with the same individuals blamed for the damage. That footage did not just disprove the state’s version. It exposed their involvement and shattered the illusion of authority. In propaganda, you never show the strings behind the puppet. But here, the hands pulling the threads were in plain view.

Goebbels would have been especially horrified by what followed next, the tribal narrative. He would ask why, after such a weak attempt at manufacturing chaos, the regime's messengers shifted to blaming a specific tribe for organizing the protests, even though the majority of destruction occurred in areas heavily associated with that very community. That move did not deflect blame. It exposed intent. It revealed that the chaos may have been planted specifically in those regions to justify a tribal framing of what was clearly a national revolt. That kind of contradiction does not weaken dissent. It humiliates the regime and makes the state look not just dishonest, but clumsy and desperate.

In Goebbels’ ruthless doctrine, propaganda must never contradict itself, must never reveal its authors, and must never be disprovable by the people it is designed to manipulate. Yet this operation was all of those things at once. And in his brutal logic, a failed lie is worse than no lie at all. Because when your citizens stop fearing the story, they begin to confront the storyteller.

And that is when regimes begin to fall.

He would not have called for a revision. He would not have ordered a rebrand. He would have demanded the execution of the men who designed the plan. Not because they were immoral, but because they were embarrassingly incompetent.

#SiriNiNumbers

[Russian Embassy in Kenya/Посольство России в Кении @russembkenya]

🏆♟️ CHECKMATE: 15-year-old Russian schoolboy Maxim Ivannikov defeated the great Norwegian Magnus Carlsen

The 16th world CHESS champion lost the game after 33 moves

Maxim took the title of FIDE Candidate Master

[James Smart @jamessmat]

The renegotiation of Kenya's social contract is being live-streamed.

[Willis Evans Otieno @otienowill]

You can’t claim to serve the people while silencing their voice.
You can’t talk democracy while barricading truth behind barbed wire and batons.

[Dr Willy M Mutunga, Chief Justice, Kenya (2011-16) @WMutunga]

Nairobi city looks like a NAZI DETENTION CAMP. Neofascism must be resisted.

[Willis Evans Otieno @otienowill]

This regime is waging war against transparency , because it has something to hide.

[Dr. Miguna Miguna @MigunaMiguna]

VICTORY in our fearlessness, focus, ideological clarity and commitment for liberation and transformation of the entire rotten system.

We must end the culture of impunity once and for all. Viva!

#OccupyUntilVictory
#OccupyStatehouse2025
#RutoMustGoNow

[Willis Evans Otieno @otienowill]

You sit in plush offices, drink from golden goblets of privilege, while Kenyans drink dirty water and die on hospital benches. You fly in convoys of fuel-guzzling monsters while your people walk miles to school barefoot. You eat steak in conferences about hunger. Hypocrisy drips from your lips like honey turned to poison.

[George Galloway @georgegalloway]

This is outstanding who is it?

[Mamelodi Sundowns FC @Masandawana]

Full time in Orlando! First game, first #FIFACWC win after a solid team performance! 💪

Ulsan HD 0️⃣➖1️⃣ Mamelodi Sundowns (36’ Rayners)

#Sundowns #TakeItToTheWorld #AfricaToTheWorld

[Floyd Shivambu @FloydShivambu]

📍

[🇷🇺Russia is not Enemy @RussiaIsntEnemy]

☝️ “If you come to a country, please respect the laws of this country, its customs and culture. But their obsolete liberal idea insists that you have to do nothing at all. That’s it, kill, rob, rape, nothing for you, because you are an immigrant, they have to protect immigrant’s rights. What rights? Have You violated them? Get punished for it” - President Putin

[Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn]

Thank you Pep Guardiola for speaking up for the people of Gaza, as well as calling for peace in Ukraine, Sudan and Congo.

In the face of genocide, silence is not an option. Well done to all those who are using their platform to defend our shared humanity.

[Washingtons ghost @washghost1]

Is he wrong though

[Senator Shehu Sani @ShehuSani]

Those who did this are now claiming to love DR Congo.

[KingDigg @Protoje]

The 80’s were wild