One of the things I love about the pre-ATAD era, is how you literally could shift your development to Poland, register your IP and development assets there, charge very “reasonable” royalties to your OpCo, and end up with an effective <5% tax rate. Piękny.
The way that Jensen Huang runs Nvidia is wild: 40 direct reports. No 1:1s. No formal planning cycles. And no status reports.
In a recent interview, he went in-depth on his Leadership style. Every entrepreneur must understand why it works:
In the last 10 years Costco grew operating income by 120% in real terms, an 8% cagr. They've paid out very little as a percent to shareholders, which means most profits are needed to be reinvested to grow.
Trades for 50x earnings.
If over the next 10 years they double operating income again it'll trade for 25x earnings. And if over the 10 more years from there they double operating income again it'll trade for 12.5x earnings. In 20 years. So starting in 20 years shareholders will earn an 8% yield on today's investment, plus a token .5%/year dividend in the meantime?
A true 1970's style nifty-50 stock. The bubble market is not going to end well for most investors.
$COST
1/ Skewness in Stock Returns: Reconciling the Evidence on Firm Versus Aggregate Returns (Albuquerque)
"Cross-sectional heterogeneity in announcement events can lead to conditional asymmetric stock correlations and negative skewness in aggregate returns."
https://t.co/MRkQWUA9O7
Mario Cibelli @mario_cibelli, managing partner at Marathon Partners Equity Management, joins our show, Grant's Current Yield, to discuss opportunities on offer beyond the mega-cap complex.
https://t.co/JvKuv9qN9P
The greatest mechanism for redistributing incomes within Europe is back in full force - North Europeans holiday in Southern Europe, driving large surpluses on services trade, which are recycled by buying goods from the North. Italy is an exception due to its large industry.
🟥HUGE move in oil prices confirm recession hit to demand.
THREAD:
1. Despite sustained restrictions to global supply, here we are just pennies away from CONTANGO all over again in WTI futures. That's already a big red flag.
2. Chinese imports of crude oil were weak in October, Europe is falling further into recession. Global demand for energy falling into a deeper hole.
3. Big problem is US demand reflected in renewed weakness in wholesale gasoline (RBOB) prices. In afterhours trading today, RBOB dropped to its lowest in over a year! [prices shown below are closing]
4. Weakness across energy space is merely confirming signals we've been seeing in other financial markets like interest rates. It's been more than two weeks showing the bond selloff (September effect) is over and fundamentals are back in charge.
5. Other bond markets are ahead in the post-September move. Germany's LT yields peaked over a month ago and rates there - which typically lead USTs out of the effect - are strongly showing increasing concerns.
6. Another crucial warning is the deepening inversion in the spread between the 3m and 6m UST bills. It had dropped sharply during bank crisis, rebounded in disinflation and is now back down almost to bank crisis levels again as macroeconomy hits the wall.
7. Energy market is coming down fast, curve collapsing back to contango confirming global signals in rates and other places. For the full video on all these, check it out here:
https://t.co/UuXQSzCQCR
In case you’re wondering how auto loans are performing:
Auto loans 60-plus days delinquent have reached a record high of 1.9% (relative to loan base).
Clearly a concerning trend.