Amy Mossoff

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

The problem with much of the criticism of the Iran War is that it largely ignores the counterfactual and the trajectory we were actually on.

The relevant comparison is not between today and some ideal outcome. It’s between today and the world we were heading toward under the JCPOA/non-attack scenario: a nuclear-armed Iran with ICBMs capable of reaching the United States, 10,000 ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of drones, a vastly expanded military backed by China and Russia, hundreds of billions in sanctions relief and a regime effectively immune from military coercion.

In that scenario, there is no serious American or Israeli military option. There is no credible threat of force. Tehran permanently changes the balance of power in the Gulf and gains permanent and far greater leverage over critical maritime chokepoints, including Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

Instead, Iran is weaker today than it has been in decades. Its nuclear program has been set back by years, its ballistic missile program has been severely degraded, its regional proxy network shattered, its air defenses destroyed, and its military vulnerabilities laid bare. Whether one supported military action or not, that is the strategic reality.

The Gulf states, the United States, Europe and Asia are doing extensive work to reduce the long-term strategic importance of the Strait. This crisis has been a wake-up call. We are building alternatives precisely because the world will not remain hostage by an Islamist regime to a single chokepoint.

You don’t have to agree with every aspect of the campaign. Mistakes have been made. Trump may squander the opportunity by doing a bad nuclear deal. Trump may decide not to wage the Battle for Hormuz. But you also need an answer to what should have been the alternative strategy to prevent Iran from reaching a lethal end state. The JCPOA gave patient pathways to that lethal end state by 2030. Inaction — kicking the can down the road as Washington did with a North Korea — is a fatal strategy.

What then?

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

Moral of the story:
"...stop giving the president of the United States even one flying fuck."

[Matt Welch @MattWelch]

With the comical botching of the Freedom 250 concert series, it's easy to get misty-eyed about the Bicentennial. I was there, in Toughskins, and it was indeed awesome. But not because of the federal government.
https://t.co/XK9QkZg8Ob

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

I'm ok with keeping assholes off the show. I hate the seasons filled with petty yelling and bickering. But who's an asshole? That's the real question. Tony and Sandra? Not assholes. They're both ruthless and smart. I can forgive a lot if a player wows me with strength or smarts. It's the dumb players that bore me. And lots of "nice" people are just dumb. They often turn out to be the real assholes, too.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@shlevy Only for brainstorming for fiction writing. I recently used it to summarize a long group chat and it was fine for that purpose, but I wouldn't really call that "writing." And I wouldn't put that summary in my own name, even with editing. It wasn't MY summary.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@mbateman I've been using it for brainstorming for fiction writing - like, "give me three situations that would end with result X." It's helpful with that. Even if I don't use its ideas, it's a good warm up. But it keeps trying to write the scene for me and it's always garbage.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@twobenjamins Yeah, I get it, I'm just not going to say I'm comfortable with this. It was the same with Bernie. Terrifying.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@MOSSADil We know #1 is true already. #2 seems unlikely.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@MOSSADil No point in analyzing it until something actually happens.

[Israel War Room @IsraelWarRoom]

New statement from President Trump on negotiations with Iran and expanding the Abraham Accords:

“Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — And nobody wants that! During my discussions on Saturday with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, I stated that, after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together,  it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords. Those Countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!). It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be. The Abraham Accords have proven to be, for the Countries involved (The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan), a Financial, Economic, and Social BOOM, even during this time of Conflict and War, with the current Members never even suggesting leaving, or taking so much as even a pause. The reason for this is that the Abraham Accords have been great for them, and will be even better for everybody, and bring true Power, Strength, and Peace to the Middle East for the first time in 5,000 years. It will be a Document respected like no other that has ever been signed, anywhere in the World. Its level of Importance and Prestige will be unparalleled! It should start with the immediate signing by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and everybody else should follow suit. If they don’t, they should not be part of this Deal in that it shows bad intention. In speaking to numerous of the Great Leaders mentioned above, they would be honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords. Wow, now that would be something special! This will be the most important Deal that any of these Great, but always in Conflict Countries, will ever sign. Nothing in the past, or in the future, will surpass it. Therefore, I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords, and that, if Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled World Coalition. The Middle East would be United, Powerful, and Economically Strong, like perhaps no other area, anywhere in the World! By copy of this TRUTH, I am asking my Representatives to begin, and successfully complete, the process of signing these Countries into the already Historic Abraham Accords. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@squirrelpalooza @cupcake7166 @JamesMelville I'm 56.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

Look you guys, my purpose in all my comments on this thread has been based on the idea that generic weight-loss advice is generally stupid because there is no set of circumstances and values that is exactly the same amongst individuals. Plus the fact that "science" doesn't offer much (yet). Each person needs to take charge and experiment and decide what they are willing to do and accept the consequences. I hate the victim mentality of the "metabolic disease/no fat shame" crowd, and I hate the moralizing "all you need is discipline and information" crowd. Paul, you are coming off as the latter, but by your tone, I think you have good intentions. That one thing about the exercise is definitely not going to be helpful for everyone though. I'm glad it worked for your friend. Other guy with the cursing - why are you so angry about it? You're not accomplishing anything that way. Paul seems like a reasonable person. You make the same mistake he does when you talk about the "current guideline," which is just as much bullshit as what you think he's offering.

[Kevin Bass @kevinnbass]

Israel is one of the only Western-style democracies that remains aligned with the values of the United States.

Most European countries have betrayed Western values and are being strangled by bureaucrats, radical leftists, and Islamists.

Israel is one of our only allies not allowing themselves to be overrun by leftists and Islamists.

Yet I don't see anyone throwing a fit about the support of the United States for these gross European countries.

Only Israel.

This is completely backwards. It is a completely inverted perception of reality.

Why?

Why do you condemn one of our only allies that shows a willingness and eagerness to still fight against the dark forces that are overrunning civilization almost everywhere else?

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@ragingbullcap @JamesMelville Yes

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@Donna_Dean @JamesMelville I still think the safety profile should be similar.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@DannySki7 @JamesMelville That's funny. I truly appreciate the joke. I agree. It's a choice. I chose to be fat before Ozempic, given the alternative. But now I have a new option.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@ragingbullcap @JamesMelville Terrible collectivist argument.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

@Ermengrabby @JamesMelville Yes. This is it. It's all about trade-offs. And it isn't the same for everyone. It isn't even the same for one person over a lifetime. I've been on both sides of fat, before and after menopause.

[Amy Mossoff @AmyMossoff]

Exactly. I was not willing to do it. I chose to accept being fat, given the alternative. Now I have a new option. I'm shocked at how few calories I truly need after menopause. I'm hoping that a few years on the drug will be enough to reset my physiology, psychology, and habits such that I can maintain a healthy weight without enormous sacrifice of attention and energy. But if not, I'll just keep using it and accept the potential consequences. It's all about trade-offs. (Yes, I eat healthy food and exercise. That part is easy. It's the portion control that is just so damn hard.)