China refines nearly half the world's copper supply
2025 mining vs refining (kt Cu):
🇨🇱 Chile: 5,300 mined, 1,700 refined, the mining leader that barely refines
🇨🇩 Congo: 3,200 mined, 2,800 refined
🇵🇪 Peru: 2,700 mined, only 340 refined
🇨🇳 China: 1,800 mined, 14,000 refined, nearly half of the world's 29 Mt refined total
🇷🇺 Russia: 1,300 mined, 950 refined
🇺🇸 US: 1,000 mined, 850 refined
World mines 23 Mt of copper a year.
World refines 29 Mt.
The gap gets processed wherever China wants it processed.
The mine matters less than the refinery.... China owns the refinery.
#AI isn’t simply creating demand for GPUs: is forcing to upgrade the entire Electrical Infrastructure
Global data-center electricity demand is expected to grow:
- from roughly 115 GW today
- to 240-280 GW by 2030
Reminding people of what @Citi and @MorganStanley said earlier this month: buy the dip in copper.
While copper is off recent highs, its fundamentals are unchanged. Stocks of LME copper continue to rapidly decline. The chart below shows LME copper stocks falling despite recent wider market noise.
Two months ago on April 30th ($6.00/lb. on the COMEX), LME warehoused copper stocks were 399,725 tonnes, with 48,875 tonnes as cancelled warrants = net available copper of 350,850 tonnes.
Today, LME copper stocks are 339,100 tonnes with 133,225 tonnes as cancelled warrants = net available copper of 205,875 tonnes.
China’s primary copper production fell year on year in May, which is very unusual… especially when global demand is strong
…Fell, because they cannot find enough copper concentrates, scrap and blister feed
#Copper#RawMaterials#Supply#Deficit
@BankofAmerica make the point that China’s primary copper production fell year on year in May, which is very unusual… especially when global demand is strong.
China’s primary #Copper production fell, because they cannot find enough copper concentrates, scrap and blister feed
G7 countries have agreed that no single country should supply more than 60% of their imports of critical minerals by 2030 in a effort to reduce their reliance on China https://t.co/5CqE0UdoNd
Singapore plans to launch a gold-clearing system this year, with banks including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank set to participate in the city-state’s push to become a hub in the global bullion market https://t.co/Z1EdnTBd9z
#Copper
Citi notes :
- Bullish on structural supply shortages + demand from #EnergyTransition#AI
- Near-term target ~$14,500 (tariff-related) then higher⬆️ into 2027
- Recommend staying bullish for the next 12 months
@Citi released its 2026 Copper Book today citing that structural tailwinds and cyclical sensitivity pave the path to $15,000 per tonne copper prices.
“We recommend medium-term investors and hedgers maintain a bullish copper posture for at least the next 12 months to take advantage of upside to $15,000 per tonne copper (ex-US) in our base case ($17,000 per tonne bull case).
Opportunistic investors may look to hold positions through June 2026 to $14,500 per tonne US copper tariff fears and then look for a July pullback/dip buying opportunities in as these fears dissipate (our base case tariff view is no blanket tariff on cathode is announced)”
The lucky countries:
#Lithium: Chile, Australia, Argentina, China, Brazil
#Cobalt: DRC, Chile, Australia, Russia, Cuba
#Copper: Chile, Peru, China, DRC, USA
#Rare earths: China, Brazil, Vietnam, Russia, India
Vanadium: Australia, Russia, China
Source: @IEA@PwC_Canada
Critical minerals: the lucky countries?
Chile, Australia, Argentina, China, Brazil, Congo, Russia, Cuba, Peru, USA, Mozambique, India
According to the @IEA , demand by 2040 could increase:
Lithium: up to 42×
Nickel: 20–25×
Cobalt: 20–25×
Graphite: about 4×
RÉE: more than 3×
Copper edged up to recoup some of last week’s losses as buying activity in China and flows of metal to the US supported the demand outlook https://t.co/pB0UeM4V1E
Poland led monthly purchases at +14 ton. YTD total: +45 ton
China added +8 ton, the biggest ⬆️ since Dec ‘24, bringing official gold reserves to a record 2,322 ton
China has now purchased gold for 18 consecutive months
#CentralBank demand for #Gold remains incredibly strong
Can gold reach new highs?
UBS House View Briefcase
“Gold remains well below its January highs.”
“But we remain confident that gold prices will move.”
“We expect gold prices to reach USD 5,500/oz by year “
#Gold#StrategicMinerals
Gold prices are expected to average a record $4,920/oz in 2026 as the bull run resumes, according to Metals Focus.
• Supply is forecast to rise 3.1%, driven by modest gains in mine production and recycling, while total demand is expected to fall 2.3% due to weaker jewellery consumption and lower central bank buying.
• Physical investment (bars and coins) is forecast to surpass jewellery as the largest component of gold demand for the first time.
Metals Focus notes the outlook reflects ongoing US policy uncertainty, concerns over the dollar’s long-term trajectory, and elevated geopolitical risks.
Chile, which is in the decisive leg of negotiations for CEPA with India, is providing India with major #Mining opportunities in #CriticalMinerals copper, lithium and cobalt - that would power India's growth, semiconductor industry and green transition.
#Copper#Lithium#Cobalt
Chile offered Indian firms access to copper, lithium and cobalt mining projects as India-Chile CEPA talks entered the final phase. Chile holds >20% of global copper reserves and 30% of lithium reserves. Both sides target CEPA completion in Q3–Q4 2026 to secure critical mineral supply chains.
In addition to @MorganStanley , @Citibank have also revised higher their near-term copper price target to $15,000 per tonne over the next 6-12 months ($13,636 per tonne today). Citibank expects price tailwinds from supply growth concerns, US copper tariffs, as well as strong global growth even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the summer… and the reopening of the Strait being even more bullish for copper.
This is why Morgan Stanley says buy the dip