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@jfonseca81@BullNakedCrypto On top of everything he’s a p&?y and used an AI fake face…to protect himself, because he knows someone from x would run into him in 2029 when btc is at 7 figures…calling his fud b&@$!as$ out and punching him in the face 😂
I know it was an abrupt post yesterday for me to flip bearish, so I guess I'll elaborate all my reasons and thought process behind it.
I’ve run every scenario in my head and the only bullish catalysts I can come up with are either pure hopium or take way too long to play out -- which is just bad RR for a trader at the moment. We simply don’t have enough new buyers to sustain an alt season run, and the market structure plus behavior across the board are showing it.
There’s too much noise right now. Token life cycles have become insanely short because attention is fragmented beyond repair. There’s no more concentrated firepower -- every week a new wave of memecoins shows up, pulls some liquidity, and dies off, due to extractive founders/cabals who have no intention of sustaining the project (in part due to years of unclear regulations that pushed people away from innovating into memecoins). The attention scattering killed narrative conviction. People are chasing quick dopamine hits instead of building or backing sustainable plays, and subjecting themselves to wallet attrition.
We also went too hard on retail last cycle. When the big players and exchanges imploded, it nuked whatever trust retail had left. Crypto proved its stereotype to the masses as a scam, and those people aren’t coming back anytime soon. They’ve rotated to equities instead, and now the top 10 stocks make up 40% of the entire market. That’s wild concentration, but it also reinforces retail’s belief that the “safe” plays are the ones everyone else is in.
Meanwhile, most other equities are flat or down -- which tells me retail has zero appetite for small caps, and even if they did, there’s a ton of small cap equities they’d rotate into before touching alts again. Add to that the unpredictability of the current US administration literally launching family memecoins, and you get even less confidence from normies who just want clean, obvious bull bets.
The other big change is structural -- in the past, buying $BTC meant you had to open an account on a crypto exchange, which naturally exposed retail to alts. Now, with ETFs, that’s gone. People can just buy BTC in their brokerage account and never go on-chain. That frictionless exposure cuts both ways -- it makes BTC accessible but completely removes the on-ramp that used to lead to alt discovery. TradFi has effectively gatekept that user base, and the same retail cohort that got burned last cycle is already making money in equities, so there’s no incentive for them to go risk-on in crypto again.
Then there’s the Oct 10 flash crash -- probably the clearest signal of where we’re at. Market makers pulled out during that drop and we still haven’t seen them meaningfully return. The buyback was weak, most of those wicks were just thin liquidity spikes, not real spot demand. Alts haven’t even recovered to pre-crash prices. By crypto standards, enough time has passed to test the market’s appetite for a rebound, and the lack of any strong follow-through says it all.
TA-wise, the structure looks cooked across the board. Most alts have broken down from any sustainable support levels, and Bitcoin itself is in a clear daily downtrend based on moving averages. Until we see a proper bullish cross on a meaningful timeframe, there’s no reason to assume a macro uptrend is starting. I’d love to be wrong -- bull markets are always more fun -- but the charts and the order books aren’t lying.
Even on the venture side, the signal’s clear. Around late August to early September, I noticed a shift in the funds I’m an LP in -- they went from offering native web3 and crypto projects to straight equities-based deals, mostly pure AI plays. That’s not a coincidence. It means liquidity demand from the private side is drying up, and even the smart money is rotating out. When that happens, it usually takes a long time for confidence to rebuild.
Not saying a bull market is impossible -- just that the odds and conditions aren’t there right now. You can outline bullish possibilities, but every single one comes with huge caveats.
Rate cuts and QE could pump risk markets again, but that probably only happens if the economy’s in bad shape, which means a bear market first.
A new US regulatory framework could reignite ICOs, but that feels irrelevant now since projects already figured out how to raise and issue tokens without the SEC’s blessing.
And TradFi entering DeFi sounds nice on paper, but the risks are insane. After years of hacks, exploits, and scams, there’s no way they’ll touch anything that involves self-custody or token volatility. Most likely, they’ll just buy out web3 tech that doesn’t have token baggage (e.g., Mastercard acquiring Zerohash for $2B which has no token). TradFi wants infrastructure, not degen culture -- inheriting token communities is still a distraction and a minus EV move for them.
The truth is, a real crypto bull market only returns when people see others getting rapidly rich -- faster than in stocks. That social proof loop is what fuels crypto manias. Right now, that dynamic doesn’t exist. Benchmarked against equities, crypto’s offering worse returns with higher risk.
Crypto’s still here to stay, but we’re clearly in a transition phase. The next leg up won’t come from vaporware and memecoins -- those will either die down a bit or move into their own pink sheets style niche. The future is when crypto evolves into actual revenue-generating tech, with TradFi (and retail) comfortable participating through tokens that have real function instead of being pure casino chips. Boring I know, but this seems like the obvious path. Crypto bet everything on TradFi coming in -- and now we’re living through that consequence. It’s not the end of the story, just the hangover before the next chapter.
@aserlies False answers everywhere. The most expensive thing is the time that was put into to build all that stuff. By all respect to the prince and the driver,l:What’s expensive about inheriting all of it and not working for it and just getting it because it’s given to you?!