Andy Timm

Data scientist @ Grow Progress, testing Dem ads. Usually thinking about methods for survey weighting, efficient causal inference, or scalable Bayes.

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@sam_d_1995 @LinkofSunshine @agounardes Good shit @agounardes , really glad you’re my rep

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@tenobrus Yeah beyond Claude smell/lack of details in the writing, there’s a bunch of weird shit in the benchmarks shown thus far too

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@sean_t_strong @emollick Is there any intent to allow users to choose thinking themselves again at some point?

This feature makes Opus 4.7 essentially a CC only model to me now. Needing to learn how to coax the model to allow me to use a basic feature OpenAI/4.6 have is a pretty bad user experience.

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@emollick Fixing the router, or fixing the requirement to use the router?

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@tyler_m_john I made one of these myself a few Claudes ago. I haven’t bothered to upkeep it because this is such a moving target.

I have a lot of sympathy for this type of concern though- jagged capabilities/stochasticity/path dependence make for very strange experiences sometimes!

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@Miles_Brundage I’m surprised they have the infra to serve that scale of KitKat

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

Thanks to the lovely r-universe project, I’ve been able to provide pre-compiled bindings for most platforms, easing installation.

None of this would be possible without Adrian Seybolt/PyMC’s great nutpie/nuts-rs project— thanks for the great sampler.

https://t.co/E0kEpHMLGt

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

Bayesian friends- if you’re curious to try out the blazingly fast nutpie sampler in R, I just put together a pretty lightweight package that’ll compile your existing Stan models!

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

Nutpie is ~2x faster on average than the base Stan sampler on tasks in posteriorDB, though I’ve found that’s more like 5x for my more heavily used, more complex models.

Bob Carpenter has a great introductory blog post/paper with some PyMC folks: https://t.co/81uKeMNtG5

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@GarrisonLovely This seems obviously too strong/overconfident? Or do you just mean no (current) solution?

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

https://t.co/vOIQGZjVMX

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

New R package release day, woo :)

Regularized raking makes it easier to build complex survey weights that reduce bias without paying as heavy a high variance price. regrake makes building these weights convenient in R.

Check it out!

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@scaling01 You would think so, wouldn’t you

[Dean W. Ball @deanwball]

I don’t understand why this is so hard for people. Of course for some it actually isn’t and they are just defending “whatever my side does” for all the typical stupid reasons. I am a little disappointed to see who has now fallen into the idiot trap, however.

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@PEWilliams_ Yeah, this just feels like OpenAI parroting the DoW attempt to move the debate to favorable rhetorical grounds.

If you can’t refuse terms without the government attempting to destroy you, we are not a liberal democracy. Period.

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

A bunch of really excellent, bold ideas here!

Quotes from my lovely (urban planner) wife “Hell yeah, right sizing station design!” “we love an uptake goal.” “mmm, modernizing regional rail!”

[Abundance NY @abundance_ny]

It’s too difficult, costly and slow to build what New Yorkers need. Our 2026 Abundance Agenda is now live - it lays out the structural reforms needed to make it easier, cheaper, faster and fairer to build more housing, expand transit, and scale clean energy.

[Hayden Field @haydenfield]

Gift link: https://t.co/S1D5ZMpE3l

[Andy Timm @Andy_Timm]

@boazbaraktcs This doesn’t feel like good faith engagement with the way the DoW/NSA understands what “mass domestic surveillance” means.

Are there hard constraints against a common sense definition of mass domestic surveillance in your contract with the DoW? Or is it “all lawful purposes”?

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

This is not hyperbole, and every business leader in the country needs to recognize the stakes of what’s happening: