The $BTC Supply in Loss has reached an all-time high level.
During the recent decline, the supply in loss reached the highs seen in 2019 and 2022.
With this decline, $BTC investors are experiencing their highest losses in history.
BREAKING: PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST URGED US CONGRESS TO PASS ACT BANNING CBDCs IN AMERICA
THE FED MUST NOT ISSUE A DIGITAL DOLLAR
HUGE WIN FOR #BITCOIN AND FREEDOM 🔥
THE US CONSUMER IS RUNNING OUT OF MONEY.
Americans now hold a record $1.33 TRILLION in credit card debt.
That number has more than doubled from pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, credit card interest rates are sitting above 22%, one of the highest levels in modern history.
This means millions of households are now borrowing at extremely expensive rates just to keep up with everyday spending.
The average household with credit card debt now owes around $10,000-$11,500.
And people are staying in debt longer.
Around 61% of borrowers are now carrying balances for more than a year, a sharp increase from 2024.
This is a major shift because credit cards were once mostly used for short-term spending and convenience.
Now they are increasingly being used to cover basic living costs.
Food prices remain high.
Housing costs are still elevated.
Savings rates have dropped sharply.
Wage growth is no longer keeping up for many households.
Many Americans are now spending almost everything they earn while relying on debt to close the gap.
And this matters because consumer spending drives nearly 70% of the US economy.
When consumers become financially stretched, the impact eventually spreads across the entire system.
Retail spending slows.
Travel demand weakens.
Corporate earnings come under pressure.
Banks start facing higher defaults and losses.
This is already beginning to show up in delinquency data.
Serious credit card delinquencies have surged more than 50% since 2022.
Historically, rising delinquencies have appeared several quarters before recessions.
It happened before the 2001 recession.
It happened before the 2008 financial crisis.
The stock market may still be near highs.
But underneath the surface, financial pressure on households continues to build.
BREAKING: JAPAN'S LARGEST EXCHANGE JPX JUST TOLD BLOOMBERG IT WILL LAUNCH #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO ETFs
WORLD'S 4th LARGEST ECONOMY IS OPENING TO BTC
HERE WE GO 🚀
🚨 BREAKING
🇺🇸 TRUMP JUST OFFICIALLY CANCELLED ALL PEACE TALKS WITH IRAN!
THE ODDS OF A PEACE DEAL HAVE DROPPED TO 6%, AND OIL PRICES WENT PARABOLIC ONCE AGAIN.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MARKET CRASH IS COMING ON MONDAY...
THIS IS BAD:
Iran is ramping up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz today.
2 tankers attacked with gunboats.
1 tanker potentially seized.
This doesn't look like de-escalation.
IT'S OFFICIAL NOW
Bitcoin has never been this oversold on the weekly RSI.
The data doesn't lie.
"But $BTC will drop to $40k"
"But $BTC will drop to $30k"
"But $BTC will drop to $20k"
STOP.
$BTC is already historically oversold on the weekly.
Just as oversold as:
↳ Dec 2018 — $3,200 → +2,000% rally
↳ Jun 2022 — $17,600 → +500% rally
↳ Feb 2026 — $63,000 → ???
If you genuinely think BTC drops another 50% from here, you're not being cautious.
You're being delusional.
The bottom is closer than the bears want you to believe.
A new bull run is loading.
Parabolic 👁️
$BTC (1W) – A pattern worth respecting
Throughout this entire cycle, the 45 RSI level and 50 SMA acted as support.
Every major pullback held there, until they broke in November.
The last time both levels were lost was in January 2022 (orange box), just 2 months after the cycle top.
Back then, what happened next was clear:
- Momentum bounced with a bullish stochastic RSI cross
– The first reclaim of the 45 level was rejected
– RSI pushed higher again
– Price moved slightly above the 50 SMA
– RSI got rejected at the year-long downtrend
→ What followed was a deeper move into the bear market
Today, we’re seeing a very similar setup:
- 45 RSI lost
- Bullish stochastic RSI cross suggesting room for a bounce
- Rejection on the first reclaim
A push toward ~105K is still possible if momentum continues and that's still what I'm expecting in the coming weeks.
But if RSI gets rejected again at the long-term downtrend, risk shifts fast.
I’m not predicting.
I’m watching the same signals that mattered last cycle.
This is one of those moments where structure matters more than narratives.
Invalidation:
Bitcoin reclaims the 50 SMA and holds it as support.
Then upside continuation is back in play.
BIG MONEY JUST DOUBLED DOWN ON BITCOIN
-Strategy bought 22,305 Bitcoin for $2.1B, now holding 709,715 BTC
-Grant Cardone bought $10M worth of BTC
This is how supply shocks begin.
🥳 Bitcoin has roared back to a 2-month high of $97.5K. Over the past 3 days, there is a net drop of -47,244 holders, indicating that retail had been dropping out due to FUD & impatience. This price bounce has also been supported by a 7-month low 1.18M $BTC on exchanges. 👍