Ankit Mishra

AI Explorer × Market Analyst | US Market breakdown every morning for Indian investors | CS Student figuring out Wall Street | Tech meets Rhythm (DHH)

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@deepakshenoy The headline hides where it's coming from: MSME credit is up ~30%, large industry just ~10%.
This isn't broad capex revival yet, it's small/mid businesses finally getting funded after years of being underserved. Worth watching if large-corp capex catches up.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Nithin0dha Worth adding: RBI ran nearly this playbook in 2013 under Rajan, raised $34B in FCNR deposits.
This window's shorter (closes Sept 30), and RBI's own liability scales with rupee depreciation. Speed isn't just NRI convenience, it's hitting volume before the subsidy expires.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Akshat_World Already run, historically: 10-yr CAGR is ~21%/yr for QQQ vs ~8.6%/yr for an India-tracking fund, in USD. QQQ wins clean.
But that's not an AI bubble test; it's a "US mega-cap concentration vs India diversification" test. Different question than the one you're asking.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@_deeppaik_ The real difference isn't sentiment, it's structure.
Samsung + SK Hynix are 52% of KOSPI, and Korean retail leveraged up via personal loans to chase the rally.
India's buffer: 9.7 crore SIPs on autopilot, no panic decision to make. 63 straight months of equity inflows.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Finance_Bareek This is showing up in the data,ELSS inflows dropped ~25% since the new regime went into default (NIFM study).
80C wasn't just a tax break; it was forced discipline. Remove the mandate, remove the habit for many.
Cash flow relief is real. Discipline gap is the actual risk.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

Netflix hit a 20-month low the same week it leaned harder into ads.
That's not the market rejecting ads; ad revenue is on track to double this year. It's discounting weak Q2 guidance and Hastings' board exit.
Holding NFLX for the content moat? The thesis is still intact.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@GaryMarcus Worth noting: this quote's from April, recirculating now.
What to look out for: Q1 hyperscaler earnings beat estimates despite the spend
If you hold a standard S&P 500 fund, you're already exposed top 10 names, which are 40%+ of the index Misallocation, beats can coexist for now

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@iamrakeshbansal Worth separating two things: that -29% median deal price likely reflects more smaller-unit deals in the mix, not values falling 29%.
Dubai's actual price index only eased ~1.5% (Oct'25 to May'26). Knight Frank calls 2026 normalisation, not correction.
Mix shift, not crash.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Akshat_World One India-specific point: in May, govt hiked gold import duty from 6% to 15%, adding ~$700/oz to landed cost.
WGC estimates this alone suppresses Indian jewellery/bar/coin demand by 50-60 tonnes this year.
Policy, not just fatigue, is slowing one of the two biggest buyers.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@dakshpixelup This is the part most India-to-US GTM decks miss.
Champions don't sell features internally; they sell risk reduction. "Why won't this blow up on me in 6 months" matters more than "why is this 5% cheaper."
Build for the champion's safety, not your spec sheet.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@KommawarSwapnil Good catch on the math, not new capital, just $13B layered on the $35B from 2025.
The real India angle: $21B+ goes into AWS data centers in Mumbai and Hyderabad.
Watch power/cooling suppliers and data center REITs in that corridor; that's the actual capex landing.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@MrTalkStock Wall Street's split on this.
Standard Chartered calls the dollar/yield move structural real US economic outperformance, not a rate bet.
Barclays' own model flags a dollar-SELLING signal into quarter-end.
Translation: short-term squeeze, medium-term unclear.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Alchemist1320 The tussle has an answer most retail investors miss: hedging.
Titan, Kalyan, and peers run forward contracts and inventory hedges specifically so the swing direction matters less.
Watching how well a company hedges tells you more than the price move itself.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@sunilgurjar01 Survivorship bias makes this land harder than it should be.
For every Kedia, thousands sold jewellery for trading losses and never recovered. Markets don't reward conviction; they reward conviction that happened to be right.
Worth remembering before the next "sure thing."

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

Same memory shortage, opposite reaction.
Micron crushed earnings, stock surging on AI memory demand.
Apple's down ~4.5% today because that same shortage just forced it to hike MacBook and iPad prices.
One company's tailwind is another's margin problem.
USD/INR: ₹94.39

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Ajaya_buddy Fair point, and honestly, the more interesting one.
Index-level FII/DII tug-of-war gets all the attention, but the real opportunity's probably in names nobody's debating on TV quietly accumulated for quarters, away from the noise.
That's a screener worth building.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Nigel__DSouza Incred's not wrong, just incomplete. War premium's real, unwinding fast (aluminium near 3-month low, $3,240/t).
Most desks still see a structural deficit in 2026, China's cap holds, scrap can't fully replace the primary supply.
One premium fading isn't the bull case breaking.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@iamrakeshbansal What's glossed over: Meta's app won't use real money at launch, just points and "play money."
Not an accident, US prediction markets are already tangled in 30+ lawsuits.
Fake stakes first show how careful Meta is being before SEBI or RBI even enter the picture in India.

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

Micron's Q3: revenue up 346% Stock jumped 14.5% after hours
Part nobody mentions: over its last 5 earnings reports Micron averaged a negative next-day move even after beating estimates
Everyone prices in "great" early When great shows up nobody's left to buy
Last night broke that

[Ankit Mishra @AnkitMi14760422]

@Ajaya_buddy Fair. What's the right question in your view?

Genuinely asking, you've been watching
This FII-DII dynamic longer than I have.