For those interested in my perspective on Portfolio Construction, check out my latest Substack Article, incorporating the Sharpe Ratio and the Pareto Principle into Portfolio Theory.
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https://t.co/d2ilcxwgcY
Interesting easter egg from Satoshi:
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks.
What is that in reverse?
6102.
Satoshi decided that based on April 5, 1933: The day President Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102, which prohibited the private ownership of gold in the U.S.
People arguing whether or not Bitcoin can reclaim all time highs forget what asset they are talking about. Not only can it reclaim all time highs, but it has, can, and will tear the roof off and melt faces.
IBIT recorded the highest volume in its entire history today while the % of short term holders underwater was also at its highest level ever recorded. Today was not just capitulation, but the largest nominal capitulation ever recorded.
Buyers took the other side of those sell orders and pushed price toward the daily open.
The board has been cleared and coins have changed hands.
Expect a V shaped recovery into new highs and price discovery with minimal dips along the way.
Volatility cuts both ways.
11 billion in short liquidations stand between the current bitcoin market price and all time high, a 11:1 skew toward exposed shorts, the highest skew ever recorded on coinglass.
https://t.co/mhXGkQmFo1
IBIT recorded the highest volume in its entire history today while the % of short term holders underwater was also at its highest level ever recorded. Today was not just capitulation, but the largest nominal capitulation ever recorded.
Buyers took the other side of those sell orders and pushed price toward the daily open.
The board has been cleared and coins have changed hands.
Expect a V shaped recovery into new highs and price discovery with minimal dips along the way.
Volatility cuts both ways.
the lowest conviction paper hands turbo selling into an infinite, structured institutional bid because they think the bull market is over before the real bull market even begins is unironically the most bullish thing that has ever happened in the history of bitcoin
I see a lot of posts that "everyone is bearish" or "everyone is bullish" on Bitcoin, meanwhile Bitcoin is trading at the same price it was at a year ago. You dont get a year long consolidation without a lot of diverse views on the market.
Over a 12 month trailing period, Bitcoin has underperformed Gold and the S&P 500.
Every single bear market cycle in Bitcoins history has began after a parabolic advance. Is this time different?
The 4 year cycle theory has created a wall of worry on the Bitcoin chart, despite the absence of parabolic price action that has normally followed the halving every 4 years. Its not the time component itself that reinforces the cycle characteristics, but the parabolic advance and the following blow off and distribution that occurs in its wake.
If Bitcoin enters price discovery in 2026 and goes parabolic, the 4 year cycle theory will be invalidated.
If the 4 year cycle theory is invalidated, you will naturally see supercycle theories emerge. If the 4 year cycle theory is invalidated, why can't the cycle last 5, 6, or 7 years? The simple answer is that in the absence of parabolic price action, it could.
What is more likely is that bitcoin entering price discovery in Q1 of 2026 would lead to a lot of market participants piling back into the market, fueling a parabolic advance and ultimately a bear market once all buyers have been exhausted.
Calling the top of bitcoin parabolas is essentially impossible, and many accounts have been blown in the attempt. At the top of a parabola, price can double in days and the ultimate top can be set within a period of hours before price declines 50% from the high.
The only certainty is that all parabolas blow off eventually. As the exponential function of price increases, the bear market becomes exponentially closer from a timing perspective.