Anwiti bahuguna

Economist, fund manager, travel obsessed.

[Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi]

Another small piece of economic insight lost to budget cuts. @BEA_News produced the only price index weighted to retail sales and, therefore, appropriate to use to calculate real retail sales (CPI & PCE include items outside of retail sales). Now that index has been discontinued.

[Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi]

@TimDuy On the contrary, median duration of unemployment has only risen slightly over the past year, certainly nothing comparable to a recession. The reason why an L-driven rise in U might be different from an E-driven one is precisely because they're empirically finding jobs.

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@Claudia_Sahm Happy b’day Claudia!

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@DianeSwonk That was a fabulous pink suit Diane! Good to see you today outside of NaBE and Boston

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@RajaKorman John Major?

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@barryknapp Singing? Awesome!

[Nandana Sen @nandanadevsen]

Friends, thanks for your concern but it’s fake news: Baba is totally fine. We just spent a wonderful week together w/ family in Cambridge—his hug as strong as always last night when we said bye! He is teaching 2 courses a week at Harvard, working on his gender book—busy as ever!

[Scott Kominers @skominers]

Fun fact: in what is kind of the most excellent coincidence I have ever seen, today's economics laureate @PikaGoldin has a new @nberpubs working paper out this morning called "Why Women Won."

(This really presumably is a coincidence because not only is it not possible to predict receiving a @NobelPrize, but also the working paper release schedule is somewhat stochastic.)

CONGRATULATIONS @PikaGoldin, QED!!!!! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

Interesting observation and a solid argument.

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@RajaKorman Groan, Karthik.

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@growingwisdom @audubonsociety Beautiful! Thanks for posting and thanks for the tomato and those interesting little round cucumbers. C enjoyed his walk!

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@dieworkwear What about women’s shoes?

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@jasonzweigwsj I did. Was flattered that you’d started following me but smelled a rat after getting a DM.

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

Very useful post-mortem.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Inflation peaked at 8.9% in June 2022. Is now 3.2%. What caused the 5.7pp fall?

This 🧵 unpeels the onion:

Two-thirds of the decline: volatile food/energy (especially energy).

One-sixth of the decline: ex ante transitory factors

The remaining sixth: more speculative guesses.

[Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher]

Don't be fooled by the headline commentary; this is another really solid jobs report

The Prime-Age 25-54 Employment Rate adjusts for participation and demographic changes.

It reached another new high in this expansion! Just 1% from all-time highs now (81.9% in April 2000)

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

Great explanation of the spike in U3.

[Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior]

So the big gap between payroll and household is that self employment declined by 369k. Wage and salary employment in the household survey went up 129k.

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@JustinWolfers Not puzzling if you look through the methodological differences and adjust. Pretty similar. Household survey has generally been more volatile than payroll.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Note that the household measure of jobs fell by 310,000. But the difference from the payroll survey is entirely different definitions, when BLS adjusts to comparable definitions the household survey showed 394,000 jobs added. https://t.co/YPmxehr36Y

[Anwiti bahuguna @Anwiti]

@bpusability @CandSCmagazine Looks like an upgrade.