Tim Duy

Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

High hopes for this cutting board. Should be 12.5” x 21”.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

ISM services. Sounds inflationary.

[Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu]

🤡

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

I find a remnant of sheepskin at the leather shop. Midnight is a fan.

[Amanda Michaud @mander_michaud]

This helps explain why unemployment remains low & wage growth continues even as hiring slows.

Simply put: the pool of available workers without jobs has grown less than unemployment alone implies.

Stay tuned for WP on the wtw series. Hint: it forecasts wage growth well. n/n

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Worth repeating that this is another negative supply side shock the Fed has been easing into.

[Cardiff Garcia @CardiffGarcia]

This is all so shitty and stupid (link next):

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

And not demand challenges.

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

The respondent commentary in ISM was notable for its reference to price pressures and supply chain challenges.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Feels inflationary.

[Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu]

Good way to ignore rolling “transitory” inflations that in aggregate keep inflation above target. In aggregate if monetary policy is set correctly inflation in one category should be offset by disinflation in the rest of the basket. Waller on how data can be manipulated with trimmed means -

https://t.co/cu8hcmNOGb

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

I upgraded my cat’s dinnerware to my grandma’s china. He deserves the upgrade.

[Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu]

The inflation mandate is subordinate to the employment mandate - a recipe for high and accelerating inflation.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

This is a fascinating pair of questions about public attitudes towards inflation and interest rates:

The group that identifies as the most committed to crushing inflation in the abstract—“reduce it even if unemployment rises”—is the same group least willing to keep rates high to do it.

What should we make of a result like this? Either people don’t connect (or agree with?) the goal to the mechanism that achieves it—or stated preferences are mostly cheap until a tradeoff is on the table?

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Just admit the target is 3% already.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Fed's Daly: Important for the Fed to restore price stability, but not at the expense of harming the economy.

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

Insane story from NYC:

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

I just can’t see how firms decided to reward employees for maximizing use of inputs rather than maximizing output.

[Techmeme @Techmeme]

Sources: Amazon has shut down an internal leaderboard that tracked employees' use of AI tools after workers tried to boost their scores with needless tasks (@rafeuddin_ / Financial Times)

(Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Government starting to print money in larger denominations, interesting. That's something that happens in high inflation economies.

[The Washington Post @washingtonpost]

Breaking news: Trump administration officials have pressed the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to design a $250 bill featuring the president’s portrait, in what would be the first appearance of a living person on U.S. currency in more than 150 years. https://t.co/S8sqdKSB7i

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Interest rates are at a historically normal-ish level, arguably a little low still.

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

It really does seem like "above target inflation" + "higher interest rates" explains enough of the bad vibes that elected officials should at least *try* to deliver on lower inflation and lower interest rates.

[fed_speak @fed_speak]

This is legit some of the weakest ass shit I’ve ever heard

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

He did not "give up" his seat. That implies a choice.

[Stephen Miran @SteveMiran]

Right before giving my seat on the Board of Governors to Chairman Warsh, I published a note with Federal Reserve colleagues, Alessandro Barbarino and Anthony Diercks.

We dive into software price trends, which have been a substantial driver of PCE inflation recently: (link next)

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

The same story over and over again. Inflation stays high month after month, but every month there is a different "idiosyncratic" reason it's high.

[Stephen Miran @SteveMiran]

We go through some exercises to account for the category mismatch and potential ways of accounting for quality improvements. Making these adjustments would result in measured inflation of core goods being materially lower.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

lol weren’t these same people looking for cuts three months ago?

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

"AI is inflationary and it's only a matter of time before Warsh is forced to hike rates" is becoming a completely conventional wisdom view among money managers.

Here's part of @ozanktarman's summary of his latest macro dinner