Tim Duy

Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

High hopes for this cutting board. Should be 12.5” x 21”.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

@Claudia_Sahm Re-inventing the wheel.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Outline of the strategy. If Warsh had just admitted this in Sept everyone would have been save a lot of grief.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin to SiriusXM Business Radio:

"I think the direction of travel is pretty straightforward. I think the question though is pace. And so what we said at our September meeting is we signaled a gradual approach.

I think gradual makes sense when you're not much behind the curve where you want time to learn, both from the economic environment and the external environment.

And so we haven't seen much change since then. I think a gradual approach is a good way to go, and we'll see what we learn over the next period of time."

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

lol This last FOMC meeting was the most heavy handed forward guidance in years, which is why volatility fell in recent weeks.

[David Zervos @DavidZervosDC]

For all those lost souls in the Fedwatching business who have been complaining about how a lack of forward guidance will create excessive market volatility, yesterday was a rude awakening. The Fed reaction function could not have been clearer. And the market moves could not have been more subdued: the 10yr and the S&P500 have barely budged.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

“accessibility" is the side they want to be on & closes off critique in academia.”

I heard a local community organizer (who’s gotten involved with the efforts to save the Tompkins bars) say almost the exact same thing with respect to local government debates.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

@IrvingSwisher It's not clear to me that this is a time consistent promise.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Everyone needs a black cat! He was just sitting here waiting for someone to turn on the fire to help him celebrate his day!

[Cornell Feline Health Center @cornellcats]

Today is National Black Cat Day! A day to celebrate the black cats, raise awareness about their low adoption rates & dispel negative notions about bad luck. So lets celebrate the beautiful black cats in our lives.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

@ATabarrok Everyone needs a Plan B!

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Not finished yet, but retrofitted a cabinet previous owner installed in kid’s bedroom to a cabinet on top with four drawers on the bottom, a more practical use of the bottom cabinet. Will take it apart for final finishing. Walnut.

[Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5]

It's funny how nobody posts this slop thing anymore because it no longer fits their narrative.

If someone you follow posted it repeatedly when it was < 2% but doesn't post it now, you have identified someone with a bias.

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

OMFG

[hannah gais @hannahgais]

sorry, what?

[Madison Mills @MadisonMills22]

SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.

The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios.

Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said.

Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior.

Read my latest for Axios here: https://t.co/Q3bda5In8q

[Constance L Hunter @ConstanceHunter]

At the risk of angering a few folks, I vehemently disagree about the old rules not applying in this economy. When my career began I had no idea where it would or could go.

I was curious & rigorously continued my education to improve my skills. Be agile & solve problems.

1/n

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

It’s hard to put into words, this unspeakable tragedy, a few blocks away, where our kids went, my wife has taught, our literal community. My heart is broken, for the loss of life, those fighting to live, the survivors, the heros who prevented something worse, all the families

[Dow @mark_dow]

The worst people, the absolute worst people, are those who only think about “hurt” after hurt happens to them.

[Victoria Guida @vtg2]

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has criticized how the central bank communicates. He’s finding out firsthand why it’s so hard.
https://t.co/vk1v25MYHB

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Please tell John Williams.

[Ben Casselman @bencasselman]

It isn't just energy, though. "Supercore" prices -- core services excluding housing -- rose 0.4 percent in September, following another hot print in August. Over the past three months, supercore prices have risen at an annual rate of 4.6 percent.

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

I can’t believe he needs the internet to make French toast. Just sad.

[Austen Allred @Austen]

This might be the first time I’ve ever watched an Apple ad that made me actively not want to buy the product

[George Selgin @GeorgeSelgin]

🧵The literature concerning why a constant money stock would pose problems is vast, with contributions from economists from numerous schools, including Hayek among other Austrians and sympathetic fellow travelers like the great Leland Yeager.

[Victoria Guida @vtg2]

Kevin Warsh’s job just got a lot harder.

My article, which secretly has a Philadelphia dateline
https://t.co/iOh8ol0ooE