Ap

en retard

[Hrundel75 🐷 @Hrundel75]

robert engle won the nobel prize in economics for proving something hedge funds already knew

they never bothered to mention it to retail

price direction is mostly noise. but volatility? predictable. mathematically, provably, across every liquid market ever studied

it clusters - that's not a pattern someone found, it's a structural law. high vol today predicts high vol tomorrow with 70%+ historical accuracy

the model is called GARCH. published in every econometrics textbook on earth, chapter 4, about 60 lines of python to run

quant desks at citadel and D.E. Shaw don't ask "will it go up?" - they ask "will the next move be large or small?"

because sizing correctly inside a vol regime is worth more than being right on direction

a trader right 48% of the time who sizes with vol awareness beats someone right 62% of the time sizing blindly - every time, over any long enough sample

run it on 10 years of SPY data:

> low vol state -> 74% chance next session stays low vol
> vol spike -> 81% chance next session is also elevated

now you're not predicting markets. you're reading a state machine the market keeps filling in for you every single session with real data

the predictable part of markets was never price direction

it was the distribution of price. the size of the moves. which regime you're currently inside

math is free, data is free, implementation is free

you were just told to stare at candlesticks instead

Bookmark this before the feed buries it

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@nicknorwitz There's an interesting book about that: Brain Energy @ChrisPalmerMD

[Mark Kaplan @markkaplan20]

This is my son David. He is the reason I am writing this.

We share the same APOE 3/4 genotype. The same genetic cards. The same loaded gun.

I found out at 52. Face up on an operating table in Stamford Hospital with a stent going into my artery. My LDL was 110. Normal. Every doctor told me cholesterol was the problem. None of them tested my fasting insulin. None of them mapped my genetics. None of them checked the shield that protects every artery in my body.

I almost died not knowing why.

David does not have to.

I spent six years finding the answer. Two hundred markers. Twelve blood draws. My entire genome mapped to the mechanism. Every study I could find. Every Nobel Prize winner who proved a piece of the puzzle that the system buried.

What I found will change how you think about heart disease forever.

It is not cholesterol. It was never cholesterol. Five Nobel Prize winners proved the real mechanism across five different decades. All of them ignored. All of them silenced. So the system could sell a $300 billion drug that lowers a number that was never the cause.

Heart disease is still the number one killer after 40 years of statins. 700,000 Americans every year. The drugs did not work because they were aimed at the wrong target.

This thread is everything I found. The shield your doctor has never measured. The five Nobel Prize discoveries that explain every step. The genetics that determine why some people get heart disease and others do not eating the same food and living the same life. The studies that were buried. The drug trials that failed. And at the end, how the body heals.

I am not a doctor. I am a father who refused to let his son inherit a broken system.

David carries the same genes. He will not wait until 52 to find out. He will not end up on a table wondering why his normal cholesterol did not protect him. He will know which genes, at which step, with what threshold. He will have the roadmap I never had.

That is why I built Neo. That is why I am writing my second book SILENCED. That is why I post every day.

This is not content. This is a father trying to change his son's odds.

Read this thread. Save it. Share it with someone you love.

Same genes. Different outcome. That is the point.

🧵

[MARKET INSIGHTS! @IManghaila]

Linda Raschke’s 12 Technical Trading Rules:

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.

2. Afternoon strength or weakness should carry into the next day.

3. The best reversals usually happen in the morning.

4. Larger gaps have higher odds of continuation.

5. Watch how price behaves around the previous day’s high and low.

6. Previous day’s high and low are key pivot points. Watch for rejection or breakout.

7. The last hour often reveals the true strength of a trend.

8. High volume near the close can signal continuation the next morning.

9. The first hour establishes the framework for the trading day.

10. Early signs of a strong trend deserve aggressive attention.

11. Four enduring principles:
• Trends are more likely to continue than reverse.
• Momentum precedes price.
• Trends end in a climax.
• Markets alternate between range expansion and contraction.

12. Nobody knows what happens next.

Successful traders don’t trade predictions.

They react to what actually happens.

Price first. Prediction last.

[Matt Morse @MattMorseTV]

More people died in France this year from not having air conditioning (7,300) than American deaths from mass shootings in all of recorded U.S. history (1,741).😬

[Marcos FarmDev @farmDev79]

Refinei o mapa de cidadezinhas!

p/ trabalhar remoto em paz no interior, pasmem, só 47 passaram no critério.

Filtro (IBGE + CNES + SIM):

• até 20 mil hab.
• 30–50 km de cidade ≥150 mil
• até 1h30 de cidade ≥500 mil
• UPA/emergência, escola, farmácia, delegacia
• homicídios ≤15/100 mil
• ranking por IDH

De 434 candidatas geográficas, 47 passaram. Sul/Sudeste 38, Nordeste 6, Centro-Oeste 3.

Vale checar no local — não é conselho profissional.

https://t.co/i4VTBBDa9n

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@WZacura Tem um livro interessante sobre isso, apesar do nome de auto ajuda: Mindset

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@posbarbarie @alvaropereirajr Seria legal compartilhar a literatura. Eu imagino/ provável que o m2 deva aumentar. No entanto ao trocar uma casa/lote de 200m2 por um edifício de aptos de area menor o valor final de uma unidade habitacional deve ser menor na maioria das vezes.

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@posbarbarie @alvaropereirajr Escadinha. Ninguém falou que a classe E vai morar em bairro de classe A. O B+ passa a ter acesso ao bairro A, o C+ ao B. Ou tem-se abiogenese com as novas moradias

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@teagoliveira E tá defendendo a exclusividade dos bairros nobres pq então?

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@bonaazzi @teagoliveira Com tanta oferta é questão de tempo pra rentabilidade cair e igualar o aluguel pra moradia.

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@bonaazzi @teagoliveira E tem mercado pra tanto airbnb que vai sair nos próximos anos? Uma hora satura e esses imóveis voltam pra uso de longo prazo. É situação diferente da zona sul do Rio que tem limitação geográfica.

[Denis Yurchak @denisyurchak]

Vienna is a rare city where you can find a 2-bedroom apartment for under €1200/mo in the city center

For the whole 20th century and still now, the socialists have been in power in Vienna, and they have been building A LOT of social housing

60% of people in Vienna live in city-owned housing, and this brings the prices on the market down

They hire actual good architects to build the social buildings, and they look nothing like the infamous projects in NYC (see photo below)

The mayor's office also maintains a strict design code, and thanks to this, the city looks tidy and coherent

I'm as capitalist as you can get, but you have to admit – the left did an awesome job with the housing market in Vienna – not by regulating or limiting it, but by building and investing the tax money properly

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@CanarinhoFNC How party is it?

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@euromaximal EU need reforms, not dissolution. But it would be fun to watch.

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@fiuzaemello A questão é quem vai financiar congressos em resorts pra explicar esse tema?

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@alvaropereirajr * de moradia também. Eu quero continuar nesse ar de interior na Vila Madalena. O resto que continue nos subúrbios

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@alvaropereirajr Kkkkkkk vamos organizar um churrasco da gente diferenciada contra a oferta de transporte público no bairro? Triste fim da esquerda br

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@andredemaj Deixemos os não tão inteligentes pras universidades de segunda linha.

[Ap @Ap93109909]

@andredemaj Universidade de excelência tem que buscar os melhores talentos onde quer que eles estejam.