bitcoin:native is closing July in green (~10%)
Now for next months,
If we see at monthly returns from previous mid-term years like 2018 and 2022;
August and September were the months where BTC started losing momentum after a strong July.
I think we might see something similar this time as well.
The only thing keeping me from turning fully bearish right now is that BTC still hasn't tapped the 200 EMA on the monthly chart. There's still a chance we push into it sometime in mid-August.
If that doesn't happen, I wouldn't be surprised if BTC starts selling off from here instead.
For now, I'm not getting too bullish,
I'll be looking for shorting opportunities in cryptos
So personally I wouldn't be calling this the BTC bottom just yet.
Could Bitcoin still go higher? Yes.
Could it ignore the Fed for a while? Also yes.
But if these higher rate expectations continue building, liquidity gets tighter and risk assets can feel the pressure.
I'm staying patient instead of getting overly bullish here.
Let's see how the next inflation data and Fed expectations develop before calling for new highs.
If you think Bitcoin has bottomed, then you need to read this
below is the graph of probable FED rate increase,
Not saying this guarantees a dump, but it definitely makes me question how bullish everyone is right now !!
If you look back at previous cycles, whenever the market started realizing the Fed wasn't done yet, risk assets usually struggled.
September and October have also been months where volatility picks up.
Nasdaq slowed down.
Bitcoin usually lost momentum or saw deeper pullbacks before finding a proper bottom.
The important thing is markets move on expectations, not just the actual Fed meeting.