Apple_Man

University student that likes 🍎
Not financial advice

[txt keabsurdan wni @txtharihariWNI]

Warung ini biadab banget sih 😭
Dari tadi gue sama temen keringetan nyari sumber anginnya dari mana...
Ternyata kipasnya cuma di TV doang. Pantesan gak kerasa seger2nya

sc:threadsdilahh_._

[0SG @Zerosumgame33]

$PROP I might be massively underestimating the upside here.

Below are O&G comps on EV/PV-10.

PV10 is a financial metric in the oil and gas industry calculating the present value of estimated future net revenues from proved reserves, discounted at 10% annually. It represents the pre-tax value of future cash flows minus direct expenses, commonly used by investors to determine the value of a company’s reserves and for benchmarking purposes

On March 5th, $PROP's PV-10 reserve report showed $1.22 billion.

Average EV/PV-10 (excluding Oxy & Chevron outliers) is 2.7x.

2x EV/PV-10 would be an $18 equity

1x EV/PV-10 would be a $7 equity.

Series F refi is the catalyst for the re-rate.

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@DarioCpx Whats your view on an economic recession?

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Gold traders don’t get it. Feb.'s 0.7% surge in producer prices, which annualizes to 8.4%, is not bearish for gold because it delays rate cuts. It’s bullish as it shows inflation is out of control and the Fed won’t hike rates to rein it in! Buy this misguided knee-jerk reaction.

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

Gemini 3.1 Pro is the most cracked model i have seen. It can create a copy & paste functioning excel model even without having access to excel or google sheets. $GOOG $GOOGL

[Aight Bet @Investing_Dojo]

Market insights from the legendary Stan Druckenmiller! 📈

Key takeaways:
• Bullish on US economy & stimulus [09:25]
• Bearish on USD [10:36]
• Long Copper & Gold [11:07]
• Short Bonds as a hedge [11:38]
Sector winners below ⬇️
https://t.co/vlEYEgBKL7

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@Sorenthek @GoldForecast Why is Price to book a comparative factor?

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@nanalyzetweets $GRAB i live in Singapore. Grab is hyper dominant

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

$DUOL I kind of feel like nobody was using Duolingo to learn languages and its more of a social media app.

I think that the value of DUO is not in its tech but rather its first mover advantage to get a committed user base.

Google trend data for things like "Duolingo Family Plan" etx still seem to be fine.

Overall user growth should slow, but conversions to paid user can probably to support revenue growth.

Overall, it seems like asymm r/r at this valuation of US$5bn market cap, US$1bn net cash, US$300+mm FCF

[Tanvi Ratna @tanvi_ratna]

Scott Bessent just issued a cryptic message on China, hinting at upcoming IMF reviews & G7 pressure to "rebalance" trade.

This is not routine.

While we fixated on gold and silver, astounding data came out on China, signalling real structural shifts in global finance

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@ekwufinance No amount of hard work from entrepreneurs, scientist, inventors and the average person can beat the money-printing capabilities of the US government. 300 million people working hard in the US, yet the US can't save a single cent

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@pernasresearch @trackdalf They are estimating closer to 40-65k per GW

So 150GW = 7.5m Tons of Copper, ~26% of annual supply
https://t.co/kHo6qJhq5T.

https://t.co/mEJZEvwLsO

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

I think you are underestimating the amount copper per data centre

A conventional data center might use between 5,000 to 15,000 tons of copper. In contrast, hyperscale AI data centers, such as those built to house Nvidia’s HGX systems, can use up to 50,000 tons of copper per facility. (https://t.co/mDuniXw1Dk:)

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

$VSCO Since Twice was on the Victoria Secret show, the stock is up 60%. I should have known when all the girls were saying that the Tzuyu bra was sold out.

I will never succeed as a consumer analyst

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@flippyfloppy52 Thanks

While SBC is non-cash in nature, i consider it a real expense because it has dilutive effects. To make my life simpler when i model, i simply take it that its a cash expense going forward.

So i take FCF to be OCF (excl. SBC) - Capex

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

$GTLB Bears, can you explain why GitLab is a bad business? I am trying to see where I went wrong. And in what scenario do you become bullish?

Because yall have been right but i can't seem wrap my head around why its a bad business. My mental model for GitLab must be broken

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

Why i am still bullish on $GTLB
1) Rev growth is still >20% (Its coming down slowly, but i think transitioning to hybrid seat model will be better for customer-GTLB alignment)
1a) Why i think it can continue: Sec/Ops is more important than ever so a secure & self-managed DevSecOps platform becomes a stronger selling point.
1b) Base customers growth is slowing down (they are more of a Land-and-expand model) but i think usage will rise because of AI coding - so the hybrid seat model will help with that

2) GAAP OP Margins are improving quarter after quarter.
GAAP SGA is coming down as % of Revenue. (Even though is still high)
EBITDA margin inflection coming soon. (-15.9% in Q1, -7.4% in Q2 and -3.7% in most recent Q3)
I estimate that GTLB will be FCF positive (excl. SBC) within a year.

3) Trading a discount compared to other SaaS players. With a >20% revenue growth rate, GTLB should be trading at like 10x EV/Normalised sales, which puts it around a $10Bn EV company.

With net cash being at 1.1bn, GTLB's mcap should US$11bn, far from its current US$6bn mcap

Additional Thoughts:
Operating expenses are kind of high, but there is a lot of innovation in this space, so maybe its necessary for S&M and R&D expenses to be on the higher side

I don't like that they are purely remote work. But, then again I am not a SWE so I am not entirely sure whats the best work format

Even though, they are cheap IMHO in terms of SAAS valuation, I don't think they should be doing share buybacks before they become cashflow positive. But i find it a shame that 1.1bn is just sitting on their B/S. Idk if there is a better way for them to doing things, but something should be done. Maybe doing software acquisitions?

I know that GitHub is the giant in this space. But from my limited retail understanding, GTLB is the better enterprise version.

My concerns from this quarter:
My only concern this quarter was that gross margin fell by 1% qoq. But i don't think warrants a 13% drop on the day.

What are your bearish points? Or am i being unfairly optimistic in my points?

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@patientinvestor $SKE Skeena Resource and $TEM Tempus AI

[Apple_Man @Apple_Moniker]

@wisemancap @merovingian_man What's your prompt for Nano Banana? It looks fantastic