China looked at the lessons of 20th century great power conflict and drew the conclusion that military power alone doesn't determine outcomes, upstream industrial capacity does.
The Allies won because of overwhelming industrial might. Japan and Germany lost because they lacked critical industrial inputs. Starved of oil, they were forced into gambles that cost them the war…Japan attacking Pearl Harbor to seize the oil in the Dutch East Indies, Germany marching to the Caucasus to take the Baku oil fields. Input scarcity doesn't just weaken you. It steers your decisions. It pulls decisions away from the optimal plan and toward the necessary plan.
China learned this lesson and decided to be the one holding the chokepoints. By embedding itself so deeply into the upstream supply chains that feed American military production, a conflict would trigger Western industrial paralysis and neuter its ability to fight a long war.
But the chokehold only works if the West doesn't rectify its supply chain vulnerabilities before China is ready to move on Taiwan. So China's central strategic requirement was to delay Western recognition of the threat for as long as possible.
Thus, China's entire foreign policy posture becomes oriented around appearing non-threatening. And it works because it aligns with the economic incentives of Western elites who benefit from cheap inputs and profitable trade. The cost of denial is kept artificially low. Raising the alarm looks like paranoia or protectionism when cheap goods keep flowing and no shots are being fired.
The administration is now racing to unwind its supply chain vulnerability before the conflict window opens. But that takes years, and they face significant inertia, both domestically and among allies who remain naively blind to the risk.
China knows this. So their strategy is to keep the West sleepwalking. Which means they can’t show their hand. If China comes into direct military conflict with the US in order to defend a proxy, the West wakes up. The inertia collapses. The reshoring and remilitarization that China spent decades trying to prevent happens on an emergency timeline.
But the US finally realized it could use this against them.
Since China can’t show its hand until it's ready to move on Taiwan, the US realized that it can turn China's greatest strategic asset, the pacifist disguise, into a structural trap.
They cannot take overtly aggressive action without triggering the Western industrial mobilization their entire strategy depends on preventing.
So the US can eliminate their proxies and China can’t respond without destroying the disguise.
Maduro removed. Cuba strangled. Now Iran.
Beijing must decide if defending the proxy is worth waking the West up? And the answer keeps being no.
Until China’s window to move on Taiwan opens, the pacifist posture that enabled its chokeholds constrains their response to US actions.
Everything the US is doing right now is a race to be ready before that moment arrives. Clear the proxies. Arm the allies. Break the chokeholds. And build new ones of its own.
Today, I am proud to be Israeli.
Despite all the shaming.
Despite all the UN "resolutions".
Despite all the academics.
Despite all the online pressure.
Israel is cleaning the Middle East from radical religious terrorists. One by one.
They will not thank us for it.
But someone had to do the job.
@X@XSupport someone hacked my X account in the middle of the night and changed the email address.
I changed the password, but now the account won’t let me change the email back.
Meher Raza-Estes is an OB/GYN at @TMHealthSystem, an affiliate of Cedars-Sinai.
When she’s not treating patients, Meher spreads blood libels of Jews stealing the organs and skins from Palestinians.
She also refers to terrorists as “martyrs”.
Would YOU trust this woman with your health?
"How can you support ISRAEL when it's pure evil? شر مطلق"
My answer is: this opinion says more about YOU than about Israel.
My experience as an Israeli-Arab (some would call it Palestinian), is that we're being taught to hate Israel from young age. This is fueled by three factors:
1-Ignorance, 2-Obsession, 3-Antisemitism.
1-Ignorance: Arab societies, generally less educated, become susceptible to the manipulation of leaders with agenda. This includes the tendency to believe in conspiracy theories. The lack of understanding about History & Anthropology, and the universality of conflict, displacement, and warfare throughout human history distorts the perception of the Palestinian cause, making it appear uniquely exceptional and dramatic.
2-Obsession: On top of general lack of historic knowledge, there's OVER knowledge about each and every detail of Israel's shortcomings, This hyper-awareness often leads to the misconception that events in Israel are unparalleled and are attributable to its identity as a country or a Jewish nation. For example, in the current war, those with limited knowledge of common warfare practices might be shocked by Israel's actions, such as the treatment of POWs, as they really believe it is unprecedented or irrational.
3-Antisemitism: This allows them to believe conspiracy theories, that Israel is acting out of interest to control the world or purge any ethnicities around it, when the data on the ground doesn't support any of this. but the opposite. for instance: "Israel wants to expand" - when in fact Israel willingly relinquished and retreated from territory whenever peace was an option.
Ignorance and Obsession are a golden duo in this case. Because it is well expected that if you dive deep into any country's news, you'll find enough instances of crime, corruption and expressions of racism. This is particularly true in the case of Israel, a democracy where citizens actively engage in self-critique, and the governance system operates with transparency. But when those flaws are gathered into one concentrated demonic piece of "information", it gives the haters the impression that they are looking into the eye of evil itself.
“I am @stephenfry and I am a Jew.”
This is just incredible, must watch Ch.4 Christmas message by the amazing Stephen Fry, about his pride in being Jewish and the need to speak out to combat the surging antisemitism and Jew-hatred.
Arab blogger @hodajannat writes:
❗Suddenly we discovered that Gaza, which is inhabited by 2 million people, has 36 hospitals. There are Arab countries with 30 million citizens and do not have this number of hospitals.
❗Suddenly we discovered that Gaza was getting water, electricity, gas, and fuel for free from Israel.
❗Suddenly we discovered that Gaza was receiving $30 million a month from Qatar alone
❗And $120 million a month from UNRWA
❗And $50 million a month from the European Union
❗And 30 million dollars a month from America.
There are Arab countries drowning in debt and cannot find anyone to help them, even with one million dollars.
❗Suddenly we discovered that Gaza was living better than many Arab countries and its people were living better than many Arab peoples.
‼️ Suddenly we discovered that our minds were besieged by a programmed lie by the (Muslim) Brotherhood media.
I was asked to talk last month about "how I speak up" on behalf of my country, and this is what I said.
My talk centered on the fact that there are two wars being waged simultaneously: the real war and the information war. In this conflict, both vectors are forms of “asymmetric warfare.”
Hamas came equipped with GoPros on Oct 7 for the same reason white supremacist “shooters” did it in Buffalo and Christchurch. They knew they likely wouldn’t survive, but wanted to memorialize the violence in a way that instilled and inspired terror long after they were gone. In the case of Hamas, they had an additional reason because they knew an "information war" would erupt in parallel once Israel responded to the live-streamed massacre of 1200 of its citizens and the kidnapping of 240 more.
As a result, Oct 7 was the opening salvo of both the real and information wars. In understanding the information war I posed three arguments:
1) Israel doesn’t care much about perception in the West because it is too focused on delivering a clear message of deterrence to Iran, Hezbollah and other enemies. If it has to choose between addressing the hearts of American college kids or the fears of the Ayatollahs, it will choose the latter every time.
2) The better Israel does at winning the real war, the harder it is to win the information war. This likely applies to any warfare in the modern age, where there are cameras on hand to witness the carnage that inevitably results from war. It also stems from the fact that Israeli success in the real war means Hamas can’t inflict more atrocities on the Israeli side. Needless to say, Israel foremost needs to win the real war.
3) Democracies should not focus on trying to "control the narrative", but instead should focus on clearly communicating the facts and intentions, including any mistakes. This is essential for maintaining credibility with its citizens and with its allies in all matters. Private citizens and organizations are free to propose and advocate for whatever they want, including opposing the war or criticizing its goals.
An asymmetric information war is not only difficult for a democracy to win, but likely impossible to win. The terrorists have no credibility to lose, which allows them to lie and manipulate to suit their goals. There is no fact checking by civil society organizations or independent media, and no treaties or international conventions to uphold. Speed and outrage are the only criteria when engaged in an information war, which is why Hamas can say within minutes of an explosion precisely how many people died with gory pictures ready for distribution. They don’t need permission from parents to share photos of their dead children and exploit the freedom of the west while denying it to their own people.
It may be tempting to emulate these awful tactics, but advocates for Israel must focus on truth and reason, while eschewing hyperbole and emotion. My recommendation is to ignore the haters and ideologues, and instead focus on educating others with facts, nuance and explanations. People don’t change their minds easily, but they do modulate their behavior when they realize they don’t know nearly enough to have a strong opinion.
"Ridicule and Criticism" only work when Israel haters make statements that reveal inconsistencies (#metoo, but not this time), incomprehension, or moral failings. I criticized several high profile personalities because they kept attacking Israel’s response without ever mentioning or condemning the unprecedented massacre that triggered it. That is a moral failing, and I will call it out every time. Only conspiracy theorists would spin any of this as a "coordinated" effort to suppress pro-Palestinian voices.
I have no problem saying that the death of Palestinian civilians is sad, tragic, and awful. But this is not a war Israel started, and Israelis will never countenance a terrorist state on its border (nor would any country).
It’s easy to be a righteous pacifist across the ocean when you have no skin in this game. But in the midst of the largest hostage crisis ever, when missiles are falling on our towns, and when our family and friends are on the frontline risking their lives daily, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Israelis will take the time to advocate for their country even if that means attracting more attention from the haters.
https://t.co/6tBIniymNw
Dear Arabs and Muslims,
I just back from Israel, and my life will never be the same.
I thought I was going to be met with pure racism, and then came to see that half of Israelis look just like me.
I thought I was going to be treated as a terrorist, but I was met with kindness and hospitality.
I thought I was going to experience apartheid, but I saw people from different backgrounds co-existing in peace together.
I thought I was going to see hatred against Muslims, but I met dozens of Muslims who love Israel and are proud of their country.
I thought I was going to meet angry Jews who hate all the goys and want to manipulate them, but I was met by a kind people who are struck by grief and terror.
Every street I visited in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv has a story of a terror attack. In every cafe I sat in, I was told ”A Jew was stabbed right here”, and ” A shooting happened on the other side of this street a few months ago.”
Throughout this trip, I have been ex-communicated by close-minded friends and family members. But you know what? It was worth it. Because I got to see Israel and experience the truth about the country that I was indoctrinated to hate for myself.
I wish that my friends and family members would also be able to visit Israel and see the beauty and hospitality of the country like I did. I was able to swiftly visit Israel because of my Swedish passport – I won’t deny my privileges.
But I also have the elusive privilege of humanizing both Israelis and Arabs. I had the greatest privilege of meeting, and seeing and talking to Israelis, whom I had learned to hate since I was a child.
I am so happy to have cleansed the hatred out of my soul. I wish that the Muslim and Arab communities could do the same.
Nothing good can ever come out of hatred, violence, and terrorism. And now, having been in Israel, I cannot stress enough how much it saddens me that my culture and my people have learned to hate this country and these people.
To all the Israelis who have opened their hearts and homes to me and showed me their beautiful country - thank you.