Arkadi

Sharing insights and thoughts about financial markets.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@DrewCohenMoney I mean at some point you can only push prices so far in a certain amount of time before customers start resenting you.

Because tbh jacking prices 16x simply because you can with no real justification, would definitely piss me off if I were a client.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

Warren Buffett didn’t talked much about “P/E or FCF yield”. His approach was more direct:

“How much cash can this business produce for its owners?”

“How much capital does it need to produce/grow that cash?”

“What price am I paying for those future cash flows?”

Next time you plan on investing in a company, make sure to ask yourself those questions.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@ThConvictedBull We think alike, though I’d personally hold both with a slightly longer time horizon, 1-3years.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

Even though I’m biased as an $APP investor, I do think $APP has presented a fairly strong case so far.

I’ll keep following the situation, and if there are any meaningful developments, I’ll post an update.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

$APP vs $U legal fight explained:

What Applovin claims is that $U had a software called “Ad Quality” inside many mobile games that was originally designed to “help” game developers monitor bad or inappropriate ads.

But $APP alleges that the software wasn’t just monitoring the ads, it was also collecting more information (confidential information) about the ads, like auctions, performance, revenue, etc.

The response that $U gave $APP was basically:

“The game devs installed our software and gave us permission to collect that information.”

The thing is, those game devs couldn’t give permission to take information that doesn’t BELONG to them and they are contractually required by $APP to keep confidential.

The second part of the allegation is much more serious. $APP is claiming that $U may have used that confidential data to train their own ML models like Vector, which competes directly with AXON from $APP.

This is very problematic since training data is EXTREMELY valuable for ML models, and if you are familiar with $APP you know that basically the entire business is very dependent on AXON and their model being so good that it has virtually 0 competition.

So if it’s proven that $U actually stole their data to build their own ML algo “Vector “ this will turn into a very ugly situation.

As of today, we only know that the first part is true: $U “Ad Quality” software was looking at data it wasn’t supposed to. But we don’t have a verdict yet on whether they trained their own models using that data.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@StokPix It’s part of the game if you invest. 🫱🏻‍🫲🏼

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

Not that wise of a man it seems.

Jokes aside, even though it stings to be a in drawdown I’m comfortable with $APP moving lower.

As of today I’m down around -12% from my first entry.

I want to clarify here that I’m not trying to catch the bottom. I’m buying a business I believe in at a price that looks attractive relative to its long term earnings potential, and at current levels I think the risk/reward is very compelling.

Also I’m not blind to the risks, there’s a reason the stock has been punished. $APP team has a lot to prove over the next few quarters, particularly around growth deceleration, potential margin pressure, rising competition, and ongoing legal disputes such as the one with $U.

Those are real concerns, and I want to see how they develop, but at the current valuation I’m comfortable taking that risk since I like the business, the management team, their track record, and the underlying numbers.

Now, could the stock fall another 20–30%? Absolutely. I’m not pretending to know where the bottom is.

What matters to me is whether the fundamentals continue to support my thesis and as long as they do, I’m comfortable holding and potentially adding if the price keeps falling.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

Personally, I’ve never been much of a believer in technical analysis for stocks.

But I do remember a wise man once said:

“Buy great companies at the 200-week moving average.”

$APP just touched it.

I added.

We’ll see how this plays out.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@TheRonnieVShow 👀

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@NetWorthNotes I think the average person finds investing complicated and scary, therefore most people don’t invest.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@DrInvestor9 I am using the 200W/EMA, that might explain it.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

Personally, I’ve never been much of a believer in technical analysis for stocks.

But I do remember a wise man once said:

“Buy great companies at the 200-week moving average.”

$APP just touched it.

I added.

We’ll see how this plays out.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@VJNCapital How do expectations of future earnings look tho?

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@POSITIONNOTES Sure.

But what if it never drops to those prices? Personally, I like the R/R it offers at $290.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@guin36 🫱🏻‍🫲🏼

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

$MU earnings after the bell.

The expected move is about ±7.4%.

Let’s see. 👀

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

I’m fairly confident $APP won’t stay below $300 for long.

If you ask me, this is a great buying opportunity. I’m adding here.

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

Just when I thought $CBRS was finally going to end up green on a month.

Boom! -8%

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

$CBRS hasn’t had a single green month since its IPO. 💀

[Arkadi @Arkadi_X]

@HyperliquidX 👀