Arne Alsin

I'm the CIO of @nightviewcap

[Arne Alsin @ArneAlsin]

@NDiamondMedia Move in the fences… for caleb

[Perplexity @perplexity_ai]

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[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

"The Secret Weapon of Great Investors" - read a new essay from @ArneAlsin on volatility, compounding, and the importance of patience as a long-term investor.

https://t.co/q6zKGYcE6e

[Arne Alsin @ArneAlsin]

The Gold Mine Metaphor: Tesla $TSLA

In my mind, owning shares of Tesla is like owning shares in a gold mine—it’s about long-term value, not short-term earnings.

It’s a working capital project. The heavy capex is spent, and now it’s time to reap the rewards. We’ve committed both capital and duration, and I believe we’re on the verge of unlocking that value.

Like a gold mine, I think Tesla is about to tap into its two richest veins: Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus. Zoom out. Think about the next 2-3 years.

[Arne Alsin @ArneAlsin]

Forget the Stock. Focus on the Business.

Here's my view: I think investors are too often playing the wrong game. They watch tickers. Obsess over price swings. They let the market tell them what to think.

Big mistake.

The stock price is noise. A distraction. A psychological trick designed to pull you away from what actually builds wealth over the long-term: understanding businesses.

You don’t own a stock. You own a business.

If you owned a coffee shop, would you check its valuation every second? No. You’d focus on what matters: Are more customers coming in? Are margins improving? Is the product getting better?

I think public investors forget this. They react to every price move like it means something. It doesn’t.

There's an uncomfortable truth: if you invest based on business fundamentals, you may look stupid in the short term.

You’ll own stocks that drop 50% before they 10x.

You’ll watch the herd chase shiny objects while you sit tight.

You’ll hold steady while others panic.

Most people can’t take it. That’s why they don’t win.

Ignore the stock. Ask yourself:

-Is the business getting stronger?
-Does it have an unfair advantage?
-Is leadership making the right long-term bets?
-Will this company dominate in 2035?

That’s the game. The rest is noise.

The winners don’t trade. They don’t time the market.

They don’t flinch.

They study. They wait. They let the business compound.

Focus on the business. The stock price will take care of itself.

[Arne Alsin @ArneAlsin]

Why I’m Optimistic About the Market

Markets test conviction. Always have. Always will.

Right now? Pessimism is everywhere—inflation, rates, war, tariffs. A hundred reasons to sell. I don’t buy it.

After 40 years in this game, one truth holds: I believe progress wins, fear fades, and betting against innovation is a losing strategy.

This time is no different. Three forces, in my view, are driving the next bull market: AI, transportation, and the accelerating pace of technological breakthroughs. Let’s break it down.

1. AI Is Just Getting Started

AI isn’t a fad—it’s the most transformative shift since the internet. It’s already reshaping the P&L, driving profit expansion.

Here’s what people miss: I think AI is making everything more efficient—slashing costs, automating tasks, and unlocking new revenue streams. It’s happening now.
Software. Healthcare. Logistics. The early adopters are pulling away. The laggards will be left behind.
The market doesn’t get it yet. I believe it will.

2. Expand Your Lens

Markets obsess over the short term. We think in 2-3 year cycles. That’s our advantage—time arbitrage.

What’s ahead?

A favorable interest rate curve. A reset after reckless fiscal spending. Catalysts stacking up.

I believe this is where patient investors win.

3. Innovation Compounds

Technology doesn’t move in straight lines—it stacks, it compounds.

AI is fueling breakthroughs in robotics, energy storage, materials science, and healthcare. These forces reinforce each other.

Take batteries—costs are falling, efficiency is rising. This isn’t just good for EVs; it changes the economics of energy itself.

Same with AI-driven drug discovery—faster trials, cheaper medicine, more lives saved.

We’re in a golden age of innovation. I don’t think the market fully appreciates this yet.

The Market Will Turn—It Always Does

Fear never lasts. Every bull market begins in doubt, then reality takes over.

Progress doesn’t stop. Technology doesn’t stop. I believe the companies leading these shifts will be worth multiples of what they are today.

The real question isn’t whether the market will recover—it’s whether you have the patience to hold while it does.

I’m optimistic. Not because it’s easy, but because I believe in where we’re headed.
The market will turn. It always does.

And when it does? Those who stayed the course will win—big.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Nightview Capital and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions Nightview Capital makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed herein. Nightview Capital reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.

[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

Zoom out.

For long-term shareholders, we believe volatility can create opportunities for those with conviction and confidence.

Read @ArneAlsin on investing in $TSLA — and why he's bullish about the future.

https://t.co/J5NaAEUriG

[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

Our Portfolio Manager @DanCrowleyNVC discussed his views on $AMZN, $TSLA, and $BABA this morning on @BNNBloomberg.

Topics discussed:

- $AMZN moat and continued growth
- $BABA AI progress and expanding cloud business
- $TSLA real-world AI is coming

https://t.co/IsNMvfMqfY

[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

NEW: Nightview Capital Portfolio Manager @DanCrowleyNVC spoke with @joshuahlipton this afternoon on @YahooFinance to discuss his views on Tesla, Amazon, and the coming boom in real-world AI, robotics, and intelligent automation.

Watch it here: https://t.co/uH2Hx0Ogr5

[Arne Alsin @ArneAlsin]

“The Escalator Approach to Investing”

Some recent thoughts on how to visualize investing for the long-term.

[John Rotonti Jr @JRogrow]

"In my experience, the biggest opportunities emerge where consensus diverges." - @ArneAlsin

I agree and I think that is very similar to #8 on my list of how I typically source investment ideas ...

https://t.co/MzlIilAySP

[Arne Alsin @ArneAlsin]

Two thoughts today:

1. Long-term investing is about strong hands vs. weak hands. Develop conviction. Have patience. Don't listen to the noise.

2. In my opinion: Institutions have historically been underweight Tesla. Subjective biases and noise may hold them back, but this can create opportunities for active investors.

The market rewards those who can separate signal from noise. In my experience, the biggest opportunities emerge where consensus diverges.

$TSLA

[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

New essay from @NightviewCap CIO @ArneAlsin:

Confessions of a Crazy Stock Picker Part II: Tesla and the Art of Long-Term Thinking

https://t.co/FsAIEbehM0 $tsla

[Arne Alsin @ArneAlsin]

I wrote this in Forbes in 2017:

https://t.co/8Jp9xeXOGi

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

• GM stock is up 45% since Mary become CEO almost 11 years ago compared to 228% for the S&P 500
• GM's EVs still aren't profitable after 7 years
• GM just exited the Robotaxi business after spending $10 billion on it

[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

We just published our latest fact sheet. It includes:

-Top Holdings
-Performance
-Philosophy
-Gaining an Edge
-Research and Investment Process
-How to Invest

Additional disclosures and PDF here:
https://t.co/9Qq9Lx8YSm $TSLA $AMZN $GS $SCHW $MS $WYNN $DKNG $H $MGM $QCOM

[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

ICYMI: Read our Q3 2024 deep-dive on why $TSLA is our largest position.

“This is a “pound-the-table” moment for us. We believe we must be positioned for the rise of autonomy; sitting on the sidelines would amount to professional malpractice.”

https://t.co/iYi2PAg5Ac

[Nightview Capital @NightviewCap]

Charting the race for energy in the "Age of AI"

In collaboration with @freethinkmedia, we explore the rising need for computational power from AI and cloud computing.

Data centers may not sound exciting, but they’ve become the critical backbone of AI’s explosive growth in the last few years.

AI relies on immense data processing power, placing enormous demands on data centers to be both powerful — and efficient.

As AI continues to advance and grow, these centers are pulling tons of electricity, creating huge pressure (and incentives) to become more energy-efficient.

https://t.co/WOJdppASsV