Arvind Subramanian

Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Former Chief Economic Adviser, Govt. of India;

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

Devesh Kapur & I are pleased that, after 4-5 years of researching & writing & decades of reflection, our @HarperCollinsIN book on 75 years of Indian development (A SIXTH OF HUMANITY) will be out in October

Announcement: https://t.co/Z6fRQLLsUU

Pre-order: https://t.co/3wpPNNAxp1

[Rush Doshi @RushDoshi]

Certainly some upside to China's ability to supply certain goods around the world, but we should not dismiss that "premature deindustrialization" of the developing world - from China's WTO accession to the present - has "kicked away the ladder" for would-be late industrializers.

For example:

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

Arvind: But what if the traditional pathway has been closed already? And for a while now? Maybe the future of trade-led development is services? Taking the India path, not the China/Vietnam path? https://t.co/FR303ObWUK https://t.co/TLEW2TZDzh

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

China's manufacturing trade surplus & export strength, particularly in low-skill-intensive sectors such as apparel, footwear, & leather is producing a "China Squeeze"—limiting the traditional pathways to economic development for poorer countries. #PIIECharts

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

Learn more here: https://t.co/JwBCv3lGUn

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

💡In labor-intensive manufacturing sectors, a country's share of world exports should broadly track its share of the world's low-skilled labor.
📈Since the start of the 21st century, China's value-added export share has grown much larger than its labor-force share...
🔧...suggesting that China is exporting goods that could otherwise be made in poorer economies where increased manufacturing could support tens of millions of jobs.
#PIIECharts

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

China's manufacturing trade surplus & export strength, particularly in low-skill-intensive sectors such as apparel, footwear, & leather is producing a "China Squeeze"—limiting the traditional pathways to economic development for poorer countries. #PIIECharts

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

Just to emphasise the mystery

Structural transformation did not happen DESPITE India:

-abandoning the permit-licence Raj & embracing reforms

-posting near-East Asian rates of economic growth after 1980 &

-posting East Asian rates of trade, incl. manufacturing export, growth

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

The deep mystery about India’s economic development

Why no “structural transformation”?
ie manufacturing sector remained small & formal sector jobs few

Mystery because economic growth over 4 decades WAS rapid

Our book A SIXTH OF HUMANITY explains the mystery (excerpts)

1/

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

Just to emphasise the mystery

Structural transformation did not happen DESPITE India:

-abandoning the permit-licence Raj & embracing reforms

-posting near-East Asian rates of economic growth after 1980 &

-posting East Asian rates of trade, incl. manufacturing export, growth

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

The deep mystery about India’s economic development

Why no “structural transformation”?
ie manufacturing sector remained small & formal sector jobs few

Mystery because economic growth over 4 decades WAS rapid

Our book A SIXTH OF HUMANITY explains the mystery (excerpts)

1/

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

If there is no growth there cannot be structural transformation

And nearly all cases of rapid growth were associated with structural transformation

India has been somewhat of an outlier of dynamism without transformation

That demands an explanation

n/

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

The deep mystery about India’s economic development

Why no “structural transformation”?
ie manufacturing sector remained small & formal sector jobs few

Mystery because economic growth over 4 decades WAS rapid

Our book A SIXTH OF HUMANITY explains the mystery (excerpts)

1/

[Abebe Aemro Selassie @aselassie]

Reading…

@arvindsubraman #asixthofhumanity

[Martin Kessler @mkessler_DC]

Pehaps of interest: @arvindsubraman @Brad_Setser @adam_tooze @TheStalwart @upanizza @LaynaMosley @AGelpern (and others)

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

The international (outside India) edition of the book by Devesh Kapur and me, A SIXTH OF HUMANITY: INDEPENDENT INDIA’S DEVELOPMENT ODYSSEY is now being shipped.

Link to order: https://t.co/HEWyTEuAdv

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“The most consequential victims of the current China shock are not workers in Detroit or Stuttgart, but future workers in places such as Addis Ababa, Dhaka, Lagos, Nairobi, Phnom Penh, Surat, and Tirupur,” argue @shoumitro_c and @arvindsubraman.
https://t.co/WUPxUbOI9f

[IBES: Institute at Brown for Environment & Society @Brown_IBES]

Dev Patel joins @BrownUniversity as Asst Prof in IBES & @Brown_Economics on July 1! A Harvard alum and internationally engaged scholar, Patel brings expertise in climate adaptation, nature-based solutions, remote sensing, and weather insurance. Learn more: https://t.co/5uhtp7BKzC

[Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman]

The international (outside India) edition of the book by Devesh Kapur and me, A SIXTH OF HUMANITY: INDEPENDENT INDIA’S DEVELOPMENT ODYSSEY is now being shipped.

Link to order: https://t.co/HEWyTEuAdv

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

Read @shoumitro_c and @arvindsubraman on the effect of the “China squeeze” on developing countries:
https://t.co/WUPxUbOI9f

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

China is not just climbing the technological ladder; it is pulling up the ladder behind it.
China is trying to do what economic theory says no country should be able: retain comparative advantage in almost everything, @arvindsubraman & @shoumitro_c write.
https://t.co/fnSphERa6f

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

You heard of the "China Shock," now get ready for the "China Squeeze"—China’s compression of the industrialization space poorer economies need in labor-intensive manufacturing.
Its export strength may close pathways to poorer economies' industrialization.https://t.co/JwBCv3lGUn