Ben Murphy

Either watching Arsenal, listening to rap or playing poker.
Trade currency markets for a living.
🇮🇪
Positive Expected Value decision making holds the key.

[ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent]

I don't really know what my equity view is right now. Seasonals are raging bullish but this chart gives me pause.

I am generally not a huge fan of the inverted yield curve as a predictor of recession because it doesn’t include a timing factor and therefore ends up costing people much money as they position way too early for the inevitable recession.

A potentially somewhat better timing indicator is when there is a bear steepening during a period of yield curve inversion. This next chart shows those occasions in blue and US recessions in red.

You can see the blue bars have generally been pretty terrible times to own stocks. The signal in April 1999 was early, but the signal timing in 1990 and 2007 was excellent. Small sample size, obviously. No call to action here, it’s just something to think about and it’s an offset to a bullish seasonal risky asset view. The ongoing collapse in gold is a bit of a yellow flag with regard to current liquidity conditions, too.

3-month bear steepening during curve inversions, US recessions, and the S&P 500
Blue bar condition is: 3-month lookback 2s10s is inverted, 2s10s are steeper, and 10-year yield is higher

[Ben Murphy @AskBenMurphy]

@James10McCourt @spraggy Lay Parka, Back Spraggy

CBTM

[Ben Murphy @AskBenMurphy]

GTV <GO> is usually okay but THIS one is appalling. Where do you even start with this chart. Not sure if it's the meaningless purple down line, the double (?) downtrend lines or the completely wonky wedge which takes the bacon.
Not to mention the RSI zoomed out to flat.

[Abigail Doolittle @TheChartress]

This weekly S&P 500 chart has changed a lot since July and $VIX looks like it may spike higher soon $SPX

[A Pimp Named Slickwater @AndUpstream]

“What’s that? Oh don’t mind me

I just don’t trust Bloomberg or Apple with my biometrics so this is how I log in”

[Ben Murphy @AskBenMurphy]

@derektucker6 Completely agree he's better LW usually but definitely the best available goal scorer to work with in your current squad.
Barella from Inter might be a decent shout to help Mount & Fernandes gel.
Don't worry it's all rosy at the Emirates!

[Ben Murphy @AskBenMurphy]

@derektucker6 Something like this I reckon, have to load that midfield to control the tempo of the game. Midfield parted like the red sea at times for Wolves yesterday, Mount no good in a double pivot!

[Feljin Jose @Feljin_J]

The forbidden zone of Stephen's Green

[Joe Cassidy Athlone @JoeCassidyIRE]

And that's how you get an extra €326,000 Ryan.

[Ben Murphy @AskBenMurphy]

@IanDunney Ian - felt like the move to 523 was completely off when we were lacking in midfield. Thought 433 when chasing the game or 451 at 1-1 was the obvious move. Kenny doesn't trust the back 4? What do you think of something like the below against a low block Monday? LB the weak point.

[Cork City FC Women (Archive) @CorkCityFCWomen]

This did actually happen, by the way…

#CCFC84 || #AllIslandCup

[cephalopodshop @macrocephalopod]

The VIX1D calculation linearly weights the 0dte and 1dte options, with more weight to the 1dte as time passes. Since tomorrow is CPI day (high implied vol) you would expect exactly this behavior as we get close to the end of the day, it has almost nothing to do with call buying.

[Rutger Bregman @rutgerbregman]

Three of the most terrifying graphs on the internet right now.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Major natural gas and oil producing nation snapping up international soccer stars

[EuroFoot @eurofootcom]

😳🇧🇪 Total craziness in the Belgian league this evening...

89' — Union St Gilloise were champions

91' — Genk were champions

94' — Royal Antwerp secure league title & champion status after a last minute winner by Toby Alderweireld

[Irish Rugby @IrishRugby]

What’s the greatest kicking performance you’ve ever seen at Aviva Stadium?

#EnergiaAIL

[Ben Murphy @AskBenMurphy]

@lionsofficial O'Gara