Assured Research

Research and analysis for property/casualty insurance and investment professionals.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

@AssuredResearch honored to have made the @CarrierMgmt Top 10 with contributions in 2013 and 2020.
Carrier Management’s 100 Greatest Hits (2013-2022) https://t.co/2VemK4Sfwc

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Office occupancy up noticeably since spring '22 yet driving around 17 cities is little changed. How are people getting to work? Public transport up 33% YTD. And when commuting is thinned out there are fewer crashes; small bit of good news for #autoinsurers. $PGR $ALL

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

#Inflation confusion? Measures of sticky inflation ticked slightly lower in Oct (and stock market celebrated). Inflation expectations had formed a top in mid 2022 but then ticked higher in Oct. Bottom line - P/C #insurers should still price like inflation hawks we think.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Analysis of Return to Work/Auto Impact: In Dallas/Ft Worth metro area the YTD RTW is up 7.1%, local driving is up 3.3% and transit ridership up 38%. Accidents in the DFW metro area? Down 5.9% YTD! Our thought: Discount for policyholders RTW via public transit. ROI should pay off

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Another reserve charge from $ALL citing rising #medicalinflation affecting bodily injury claims (among other reasons). We've continue to focus on the transition of inflation from property to liability; with emphasis on medical. Contact us for more on the topic.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Inflation expectations and sticky inflation (wages, medical costs, etc.) tracked fairly closely until recently. We think P/C #insurance cos should price like inflation hawks. More in our next Briefing on #medicalinflation; now at its highest point since the #ACA became law.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Driving is near prepandemic levels but <50% of corporate America in the office - worried about commuting and more accidents as people RTW? We take some comfort in research showing that use of public transport is rising much faster than our new commuting index. Good news $ALL $PGR

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

What's happening with #socialinflation? @AssuredResearch examined disposed legal cases during the 2.5 yrs pre and post pandemic. Disposed premises liability cases fell ~50%. Motor and workplace negligence? Contact us to learn more.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

#Inflation risks for P/C insurers transitioning to liability from property, Data from @stlouisfed shows flexible inflation (property) decelerating while stick (liability - think wages, medical, legal costs) accelerate. Contact @AssuredResearch for more.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Major components of #tort liability costs rose in August - not helpful for P/C #insurers. #Medicalinflation in particular is rising sharply. Not all medical components hit insurers. Reach out for our recent piece on auto hawks and workers' compensation doves.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

#Jobs data shows continued strength in #manufacturing with 461K jobs added this past year. @AssuredResearch will examine the impact of #reshoring on workers' compensation premiums in early September...a growing economic tailwind.

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Contact @AssuredResearch for our work on #PFAS and #insurance

The Environmental Protection Agency proposed designating two chemicals used for more than half a century in everything from carpets to cookware as hazardous substances https://t.co/Cv4oYYplaT via @WSJ

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

30 years ago today #HurricaneAndrew made landfall. Enduring message: It Only Takes One. But lack of hurricanes thru mid-Aug is notable. That's happened 35x over the past 100 years. Some useful stats on the hurricane season below - probabilities shifting favorably.(Only takes one)

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

#GasPrice below $4/gal likely to lead to more driving and more crashes...but only to a point. @AssuredResearch examines history of gas consumption and price data. Behavior changes around $4 but then quickly stabilizes. More in our Assured Comment. $ALL $PGR

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Have Insurers Paid Too Much for Asbestos and Other Toxic Torts? Sharp analysis in @CarrierMgmt
https://t.co/TKyirEYvT3

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

The liability landscape is on the cusp of being reshaped by the arrival of some 500,000 sets of matched genomic/medical records. This is a "never before" event that will disrupt actuarial and claims models. More in our interview with expert @kirklsp

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

@AssuredResearch pleased to collaborate with @BCG on their U.S. P/C #insurance CEO Briefing on #inflation. The short paper is available here: https://t.co/4MJ82S2F65

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Economic and Social Inflation: How They Impact the Company Actuary https://t.co/RUP6DhaT7b

@AssuredResearch and @The_Hanover presentation given in late May

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

An interesting way to visualize and monitor social inflation impacting P/C #insurance cos. Growth in liability losses in xs of nominal GDP shows tight correlation with loss ratio. More @assuredresearch

[Assured Research @AssuredResearch]

Gasoline demand (driving) is not reacting to the decline in prices since mid June. Prices down some 10% but gas consumption remains 8-10% below year-ago levels. $ALL $PGR