Asta Reshet

Dry bulk shipping, soft spot for bears, respect for marine wild life

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

HORMUZ TRAFFIC SLOWS AS SHIPPERS STAY CAUTIOUS

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed Friday as shipowners remained wary despite a US-Iran deal to ease a dual blockade. Some vessels resumed movement, but safety concerns, including possible mines and uncertain Iranian controls, kept many ships waiting. Around 40 VLCCs carrying nearly 80 million barrels of crude remain ready to sail if secure passage resumes.

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. ET: Chairman Warsh hosts live #FOMC press conference: https://t.co/fXt6ew8I9A

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran announces a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz following US strikes on Southern Iran.

[The Straits Times @straits_times]

Why the world is bracing itself for a rare ‘super’ El Nino https://t.co/4okjTGTLla

[Asta Reshet @AstaRehtse]

@Steven_2376 I sold puts too. Though all turn out well in the end, stressful to see market kept falling.

[Natx Wang 🇸🇬🍟 @natxwang]

Even the Singapore Zoo is hiring an AI Specialist to build agentic solutions.

It seems like every company is trending towards hiring someone to build stuff that can help each department in the organization to work more efficiently.

Vibe coding experience with working solutions to showcase will come in handy.

[Marhelm @MarhelmData]

Mercuria head of freight says 10% of global ships could be forced to stop next month due to fuel shortages

[Asta Reshet @AstaRehtse]

@0x_ZHUANG Well said

[Dry Bulk Edge @DryBulkEdge]

China’s urban renewal 15th FYP sparks a rally in A-share real estate stocks. Urban renewal generally means higher steel-to-cement ratios psm than greenfield builds ie bullish for iron ore demand if it scales. $BDI #DryBulk #IronOre

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Food is set to become even more expensive:

World fertilizer prices have surged +44% since the start of the Iran War, to the highest since 2022.

This comes as ~33% of globally traded fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

This includes 23% of global ammonia, 34% of urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly 20% of global phosphate supply.

Furthermore, the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex has increased ~9% since the Iran war.

The index tracks the futures prices of key agricultural commodities, including wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cotton.

In the past, world fertilizer prices have acted as a leading indicator for agricultural output prices, as rising production costs eventually force farmers to reduce supply, pushing crop prices higher.

A new wave of global food inflation is imminent.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Newly released Fed meeting minutes show that the "majority" of officials thought rate hikes may be needed if inflation persists.

In a sudden turn of events, it appears that the market and the Fed are bracing for potential rate hikes.

[MarineTraffic @MarineTraffic]

Capesize bulkers collide in Singapore Strait

Two capesize bulk carriers have collided in the Singapore Strait, according to media reports. The Marshall Islands-flagged Cape XL, a 181,500-dwt bulker departing Singapore Anchorage for Qingdao, China, reportedly came into contact with the Panama-flagged Huge Kumano, a 208,800-dwt bulker on a voyage from Porto Sudeste, Brazil.

According to #MarineTraffic data, Cape XL departed Singapore Anchorage at 21:35 UTC on 19 May and later updated her AIS status to Not Under Command at 00:19 UTC on 20 May. Huge Kumano also updated her AIS status to Not Under Command at 22:57 UTC on 19 May. Both vessels were later shown stopped or drifting in the Singapore Area, with the anchor handling vessel, Boka Sweeper, operating nearby.

▶️ Watch the playback of the vessels’ movements.

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

President gives hint of war being over soon, oil goes down a little, rates go down a little, S&P up a little. Notice, each move much less than earlier in the war. When the inevitable Rumor of War comes, these could reverse hard

[Asta Reshet @AstaRehtse]

@assface_private Wise decision. 👍

[Asta Reshet @AstaRehtse]

@JohnLoc18 Amen. God bless you too

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Talk about a turn of events:

President Trump just announced that the US itself will now begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Effectively immediately, the US Navy has begun the process of "blockading" the Strait of Hormuz.

In other words, the US and Iran will now be competing on blocking this crucial waterway.

It appears that Trump's long-term plan is to blockade Hormuz, gain control, then begin letting traffic flow freely.

However, if this is possible to fully obtain, it will be a long process that would further restrict the flow of traffic for at least another 2 months, according to our analysis.

As diplomacy appears to have failed, the US' top priority in the Iran War now appears to be reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

We expect a volatile week ahead.

[Asta Reshet @AstaRehtse]

@assface_private Yes 😃

[Jack @jackunheard]

🚨BREAKING: President Trump orders U.S. warships into position, warning Iran will face military force if talks collapse this weekend

[Asta Reshet @AstaRehtse]

@JohnLoc18 Take a break from trading. You need it.

[Asta Reshet @AstaRehtse]

@assface_burner When is the expiry?