The Asymmetry Letter

Deep-dive research on undercovered growth stocks. Full articles, not just calls. Long only, no shorts. Not investment advice.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

1/People keep asking if the Fed will “hike once and pause.” It’s a strange question historically. A single isolated hike has essentially never happened. Every tightening cycle since the early 1960s has been a multi-meeting sequence, not a one-off adjustment.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@WallStSultan Soon back to 40$

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

$SOFI TIME, WHAT DO WE EXPECT? IMPLIED MOVE 8.9%

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

SK HYNIX $SKHY:

WE DO NOT BELIEVE OUR MEDIUM-TO-LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PLANS WILL LEAD TO IMMEDIATE OVERSUPPLY.

[Hims House @himshouse]

🚨 $HIMS STAKE UPDATE

BlackRock now owns 11.9% (26.5 million shares)

Previously, BlackRock owned 23M shares

BlackRock is the largest institutional shareholder and now holds more shares than CEO Andrew Dudum

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

What do you think is an appropriate cash position right now?

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@StockMKTNewz Hopefully we have that out of the way this year

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@riyadosofian $HIMS will be back to 40 this year

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@FIBFINDERSX I agree, interesting. Why would they be valued so aggressively.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@Couch_Investor Hopefully!

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

$NBIS Order between 155-165? @EndicottInvests

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

IF $SOFI USD SCALED TO $15B IN CIRCULATING SUPPLY?

At the current ~3.63% Fed funds rate, that’s ~$544M/year in float income alone, roughly two-thirds of SoFi’s entire FY26 guided net income ($825M), from a single product. Current supply is ~$304M, so this is a ~50x-scale hypothetical, not a near-term case. It’s also high-margin income, since holding cash reserves at the Fed costs almost nothing to run.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

Why are we selling?

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@unusual_whales Somewhat true

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@Ashton_1nvests Facts

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@arthritisfinger 🚀

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

$SOFI Financial Services contribution margin fell from 51% (Q4) to 46% (Q1), even as segment revenue grew 41% YoY. Likely driver: rising direct-attributable costs, possibly tied to deposit-acquisition promos or expanded SoFi Plus rewards, though management hasn’t spelled out the cause explicitly. Worth watching tomorrow, whether this settles into a new lower margin floor or reverses as those campaigns roll off. I am guessing a rebound to 51%.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

GLOBAL CHIP SELLOFF INTENSIFIES

Chip stocks in Asia continued to decline following a significant selloff in the U.S., driven by worries about AI expenditures and China’s advancements in technology. South Korea’s Kospi dropped by 10%, leading to two suspensions in trading, while Japan’s Nikkei decreased by 4%. In the U.S., chip stocks were still under pressure before the market opened, with $MU , $NBIS , $INTC , and $NVDA all experiencing lower prices.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

@De_belegger Undervalued

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

3/There’s also a credibility mechanism. A single hike signals “we’re testing something.” A sequence signals “we’re serious about getting inflation back to target.” Markets price forward expectations off the path, not the individual move, so the Fed needs a visible pattern to actually shift financial conditions, not just the fed funds rate itself.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

1/People keep asking if the Fed will “hike once and pause.” It’s a strange question historically. A single isolated hike has essentially never happened. Every tightening cycle since the early 1960s has been a multi-meeting sequence, not a one-off adjustment.

[The Asymmetry Letter @AsymmetryLetter]

2/The reason is structural, not stylistic. Monetary policy works with a lag, usually 12-18 months before a rate change fully shows up in the real economy. If the Fed moved once and waited to see the full effect before moving again, cycles would take years longer than they do. So they move in steps and read incoming data between them, rather than waiting for the full lagged effect of each hike.