Atmos Lab

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@tottaway22 If I make a calculation: 40 BBs * $35mil = $1.4Bn and 5 launches 5* 85 mil (avg Glenn/Falcon) = $425mil. Total ~$1.8Bn I hope this to have happened but it seems huge. Imagine that even chips' tariffs have gone a few weeks before (supply cost secured).

[Atmos Lab @AtmosLab]

@tottaway22 @StillPlaysCrick This is actually very bullish:
✔️ Launch cost is not a permanent margin drag
✔️ Unit economics improve automatically with scale
✔️ Incremental satellites after break-even are extremely profitable
✔️ Depreciation understates future cash generation

[Atmos Lab @AtmosLab]

@tottaway22 @StillPlaysCrick The confusion comes from mixing two different perspectives: 1️⃣ Accounting definition (GAAP / balance sheet) vs 2️⃣ Cash deployment / near-term build-out economics
The 10-K has how costs are capitalized on the balance sheet, not how cash flows behave in early vs late deployment.

[Atmos Lab @AtmosLab]

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport Why this distinction is critical
1️⃣ “Average” ≠ “Marginal”

In capital-intensive infrastructure, CFOs often quote:

Average cost at full scale, not cash cost per unit today Average cost=Total satellitesTotal/constellation capex

[Atmos Lab @AtmosLab]

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport ❌ It is NOT:

The near-term cost for the first 45–60 satellites

The marginal cost per satellite on early launches

The cash cost per satellite if deployment stops at 45–60

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@JoshGregersen @thekookreport What the CFO actually means (correct interpretation)
✅ The $21–23M figure is:

A fully averaged, steady-state, at-scale capital cost per satellite,
amortized across a ~90+ satellite constellation, including launch.

[Atmos Lab @AtmosLab]

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport $21–23M per Block-2 satellite, this figure refers to:

Satellite hardware & materials

Assembly & integration

Testing and quality control

Factory overhead allocated per unit

Yield improvements at scale (“mature production”)

It is not an all-in deployed cost.

[Atmos Lab @AtmosLab]

@JoshGregersen @thekookreport The $22M does NOT include:

🚀 Launch services (Falcon 9, New Glenn, etc.)

Insurance

Launch integration fees

Ground segment / network capex

Spectrum / regulatory costs

Launch is always disclosed and modeled separately.