@tottaway22 If I make a calculation: 40 BBs * $35mil = $1.4Bn and 5 launches 5* 85 mil (avg Glenn/Falcon) = $425mil. Total ~$1.8Bn I hope this to have happened but it seems huge. Imagine that even chips' tariffs have gone a few weeks before (supply cost secured).
@tottaway22@StillPlaysCrick This is actually very bullish:
โ๏ธ Launch cost is not a permanent margin drag
โ๏ธ Unit economics improve automatically with scale
โ๏ธ Incremental satellites after break-even are extremely profitable
โ๏ธ Depreciation understates future cash generation
@tottaway22@StillPlaysCrick The confusion comes from mixing two different perspectives: 1๏ธโฃ Accounting definition (GAAP / balance sheet) vs 2๏ธโฃ Cash deployment / near-term build-out economics
The 10-K has how costs are capitalized on the balance sheet, not how cash flows behave in early vs late deployment.
@JoshGregersen@thekookreport Why this distinction is critical
1๏ธโฃ โAverageโ โ โMarginalโ
In capital-intensive infrastructure, CFOs often quote:
Average cost at full scale, not cash cost per unit today Average cost=Total satellitesTotal/constellation capex
@JoshGregersen@thekookreport โ It is NOT:
The near-term cost for the first 45โ60 satellites
The marginal cost per satellite on early launches
The cash cost per satellite if deployment stops at 45โ60
@JoshGregersen@thekookreport What the CFO actually means (correct interpretation)
โ The $21โ23M figure is:
A fully averaged, steady-state, at-scale capital cost per satellite,
amortized across a ~90+ satellite constellation, including launch.
@JoshGregersen@thekookreport $21โ23M per Block-2 satellite, this figure refers to:
Satellite hardware & materials
Assembly & integration
Testing and quality control
Factory overhead allocated per unit
Yield improvements at scale (โmature productionโ)
It is not an all-in deployed cost.