🚨Have $ASTS & Rakuten just won the $1B J-Leo award?🚨 A new filing by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs & Telecommunications (MIC) suggests they may have and that the government is designing the exact runway for them to win. 1/n
THE SPACE BIG 4 VALUE FOR MONEY:
1. $ASTS trading at 11x 2029 net income
2. $RKLB trading at 80x 2029 net income
3. $PL trading at 105x 2029 net income
4. $SPCX trading at 120x 2029 net income
$ASTS: CNBC Interview Gwynne Shotwell President & COO $SPCX
Morgan: Starlink Mobile, how big is that opportunity?
Gwynne: I think that opportunity is huge. If you were to look at numbers of subscribers, I think Starlink Mobile will far exceed Starlink broadband in the home.
$ASTS yup. The market is completely asleep at the wheel not seeing TMobile is about to make a partnership with ASTS, especially after yesterday's video of SpaceX's CFO discussing going directly to the consumer and competing with MNOs, just weeks after TMobile joined ATT and Verizon in a proposed joint venture specifically for D2D connectivity. The signs couldn't be any clearer.
ASTS is on pace to have a monopoly with US MNOs, the most valuable mobile market in the world. Yet, Starlink has an implied market cap of $1T-$1.3T while ASTS is trading at $0.035T.
Yes, Starlink's implied market cap is heavily driven by their fixed broadband business, but the CFO said yesterday that connectivity's TAM is $1.6T a year or $0.740T a year for D2D/D2C.
There are only two dominant players in the D2D landscape: Starlink who is ultimately wanting to go directly to the consumer and will need low band spectrum to achieve that, and AST SpaceMobile who is working with MNOs. Effectively, a global duopoly is being made in a $740B TAM. Investors that want exposure can either pay $1T-$1.3T for Starlink Mobile or $35B for AST SpaceMobile.
It's really that simple.
*NFA
$ASTS - Goldman sees Starlink revenue going from $4.2B in 2025 to $144B by 2030!
Bloomberg has AST revenues estimates jumping from $70M in 2025 to $3.3B by 2030 which seems ultra conservative
AST is one of the best asymmetric set-ups in the market today…😎
Blue Origin CEO just said,“We will fly again before the end of this year.”
LC-36’s long-lead infrastructure is intact, the support tower is repairable and Blue Origin will move straight to a new vertical launch setup.
Some LC-36 updates. Now that we’ve had access to the pad and integration facility we can share a bit of good news. The propellant farm, oxygen, liquid hydrogen and LNG tanks are all in good shape. This is good luck because these are very long lead items. The water tower is also good. The big support tower is damaged, but it can be repaired in place rather than torn down and replaced. The booster “Never Tell Me The Odds” and the three GS-2s that were onsite in the integration facility also look good.
I’ve seen some speculation that we might move directly to the 9x4 configuration, but we won’t do that. Rate manufacturing of 7x2 is going well, and we’re going to continue that at pace as planned and store the stages for use. In addition, we had already been working for some time on eliminating our transporter-erector in favor of an alternative vertical conop, and we’ll now go directly to that; so we don’t need a new transporter-erector.
We will fly again before the end of this year. Gradatim Ferociter.
I enjoyed being at the CNBC event, but I wanted to clarify. The question was about the timing of the Moon Base and recent lunar rover awards. I was pointing out that those missions are not until 2028, which should be well within what is possible for pad recovery.
Blue Origin leadership has responded incredibly quickly, and NASA will do all we can to help with root cause analysis and accelerate pad recovery timeframes while staying extremely focused on progressing the lander.
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER PATENT 🔥
AST SpaceMobile has just been granted a new patent and it’s a big one for scaling a space based cellular network.
The patent outlines how devices can seamlessly transition between overlapping satellite beams and gateways without dropping connectivity.
Key points
• Directly addresses one of the hardest technical challenges for a global NTN network - uninterrupted mobility between moving satellites
• Describes overlapping cell architecture and dynamic switching between communication ports/beams in real time
• Improves reliability, latency management and user experience as satellites move across coverage zones
• Shows that AST is building a terrestrial grade cellular experience from space, not just intermittent satellite messaging like competitors
The market is sleeping on how big of a technical moat AST is building 🔥
$ASTS
Convoy complete.
BlueBird 9 has officially arrived at Cape Canaveral, ahead of the next Falcon 9 launch campaign. 🚀🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
Built in Texas. Broadband from space. Designed to connect directly to everyday smartphones. 🌎📶📱
#ASTSpaceMobile#Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected
$ASTS. $740B TAM. On what will be a duopoly or at best an oligopoly.
Think Visa vs Mastercard. Nvidia vs AMD. Coke vs Pepsi.
This doesn’t need to be winner-take-all. And even if Starlink eventually competes in D2D, the pie is so massive it doesn’t matter. Amazon Kuiper is probably the only player with deep enough pockets to build a full constellation from scratch. But good luck to anyone starting today. Just think about how much capital AST raised to get to where they are on R&D and production. The moment AST’s service is functional, any company that comes after has to have a superior product/service at a cheaper price.
People forget AST was literally incubated by two of the largest MNOs on the planet, Vodafone and AT&T. Plus Rakuten and American Tower. Some MNOs have entire internal teams dedicated to AST. This was the industry’s chosen solution from day one, or as John Stankey said “the landlord”.
AST has early mover advantage with superior tech. Those are just facts.
Abel Avellan invented the direct-to-cell market when every industry “consultant”was calling it a zero. Science fiction. Impossible. “They lied about their capabilities.” Short report after short report.
And through all of it, Abel hasn’t sold a single share.
Do you get it yet?
$ASTS short away dummies. If Starlink Mobile is looking to charge $18/month in high-income markets for their inferior service what does that imply about AST SpaceMobile's ARPU? To my knowledge, analysts have been using $5-$10 ARPU when calculating future cash flows.
$ASTS while Tim Farroff tries to spin today's news as indication that Verizon and ATT are doing this to open up their options from ASTS the President of SpaceX is pretty much confirming that is not so much the case👇