Netanyahu is in a mess of his own making and Israel is in a worse place because of it. I’ll explain why:
On August 12th 2025, weeks after Trump prematurely forced an end to the 12-day war and saving Khamenei’s life, @netanyahu sent a message to the people of Iran that couldn’t be any more clear: “take to the streets, you are not alone, I stand with you, Israel stands with you.”
He repeated that same message again on September 30th, 2025.
In December, anti-regime protests broke out in multiple major cities across the country and by early January it spread nationwide. On January 6th, 2026, Crown Prince @PahlaviReza issued a first of its kind call to protest for Jan 8th and 9th. By then, Netanyahu and Israel had weeks, if not months, to prepare for the moment.
On January 8th and 9th, millions of Iranians took to the streets across the entire country. Towns, villages, major cities, you name it, in all 4 corners of the country. In many locations protesters either took over government institutions or got very close to doing it. The regime itself claims that many cities fell on Jan 8th and 9th.
What did Netanyahu or Israel do? Absolutely nothing. Sat back and watched thousands upon thousands of protesters get massacred by the regime. The once in a lifetime golden opportunity to help people take down the regime with negligible cost for Israel and very little effort from the IDF was lost just like that.
What could Israel do on those 2 nights and didn’t?
- Khamenei and his top commanders could have been taken out just like they were on Feb 28th
- The regime security council meeting on the evening of Jan 8th, in which the order of the brutal crackdown was decided, signed, and transmitted down the chain of command, could have been targeted. This would have broken the regime’s command and control at a time it was the closest to collapse as it has ever been.
- Protesters in a couple of major cities could have received air support from drones. The mere existence of them in the skies overhead without even firing a single shot could have been the deciding factor on the ground, let alone them targeting some of basij or IRGC forces in Tehran.
- IRIB could have been targeted. IRIB shutting down would have been the most devastating blow to the moral of the regime forces and a significant boost for the protesters’.
The mess we’re all in today is the direct result of Netanyahu’s deadly inaction on Jan 8th and 9th but the mistakes didn’t end there.
The second mistake was letting Trump completely rule the direction of the war in the first 3 weeks. Primarily, complying with Trump’s no-kill list that included the Army and Police leadership as well as the regime figures like Ghalibaf and Araghchi who are now fooling Trump with an illusion of a “peace” deal. Israel should have taken the lead and decided its own targets based on its own interests.
I’m not saying all these to be the captain hindsight here. I’m saying it because I think it’s possible that in the near future, we end up in similar situations and we simply cannot have these mistakes made again because the next opportunity could be our last.
I understand president’s desire to give diplomacy every opportunity possible, however, this “pause” like the “ceasefire” will further embolden the regime, cement their perception that they are winning, amplify the voices in the West that claim US is losing, and weaken US and president’s credibility.
As an Iranian from the heart of Tehran: "Hell no."
Ending this war without completly destroying the Islamic regime is our nightmare. this would make trump even more hated than Carter!
Don't fall for the anti war leftist propaganda.
me and my family want this war to continue, even if we become collateral damage.
We’re truly grateful to the brave Israeli and american soldiers.
@ll_will_ وزن این "خودمون" در حد صفر است و بجای سرمایه گزاری توانایی ها در مسیری که بشود به گروههای مخالف ج.ا وزن داد، تمام سرمایه و توان مثل آب خوردن در مسیرهای مشخصا بی نتیجه صرف شد.
https://t.co/AydsCvgErB
Iran is a nation with 1000s of years of history with people who have lived in it for centuries bonded together with a deep sense of belonging and nationalism. There is no need to do "nation building" in Iran. The nation is there and more than ready to take over.
Iraq is a completely different story and would be naive to be used as a basis to make strategic decisions for Iran. Nation building in Iraq failed because Iraq as a nation/country never existed and was created by european foreign ministers on a map after the fall of the Ottoman empire in the 1930s.
Best way to undrestand today's Iran is to treat it like a hostage situation. The SWAT team doesn't need to stay and rebuild the bank after taking out the hostage takers and freeing the hostages. The bank will go back to business as usual the next day.
(p.s: Also, the SWAT team shouldn't save a few of the hostage takers and sign a deal with them to let them run the bank going forward)
ISIS is childplay compared to what's left of the regime right now. US intentionally created ISIS Pro Max on stereoids to avoid having a power vaccum?
Also another exhibition of lack of intel on the US side. Iran won't have a power vaccum after this regime. Iran has a vastly popular opposition leader who millions of people chanted his name on the streets in January and took bullets doing it. Iraq didn't have that.
President Trump needs to be honest not only with regional allies, but more importantly with the American people as to whether or not a “deal” with the Islamic Republic regime in Iran is possible, or even worthwhile. He needs to make the case to the American people that diplomacy and aerial bombardment have both failed and hence, the only effective and enduring solution that remains on the table is toppling the Islamic Republic regime.
The President’s abrupt and untimely cessation of military campaigns in pursuit of a “deal” with the savage mullahs is detrimental to regional allies, as well as to the Iranian people, who have been victims of mass executions since the declaration of ceasefire. They were counting on protection from the US.
Both the Iranian people and regional allies feel betrayed. The repeated declaration that there has been a “regime change” in Iran as a result of Operation Epic Fury is particularly deceiving and frankly, quite disturbing.
Currently, @potus is at a point of no return. Any “deal” will be perceived as capitulation to the regime that murdered 40,000 innocent people in January. This will certainly be seen as a defeat for the U.S. and will not only impact the midterm elections, but etched in history as a stain for @realDonaldTrump’s legacy. The Pres needs to return to the battlefield and finish the job. Pakistan and terrorists should not drive or influence US foreign policy.
There is no Delcy Rodríguez among the Islamic Regime figures in Iran. Never was and Never will be.
But let’s assume the impossible for a second and imagine there is. Even then, you won’t find him through ceasefire, appeasement, and showing an undying horniness for a “Deal”.
The only way you could have a tiny chance was through an Iron fist, never-ending bombing and targeting of officials, constantly threatening that you are fixated on ending them for good and showing you’re absolutely uninterested in any type of talks, negotiations, or deals.
Trump basically killed his own plan of finding the Delcy Rodriguez in Iran by making a no-kill list of regime officials, agreeing to a ceasefire, and showing willingness for a deal.
When Trump says “they want to make a deal badly”, the regime hears “US is weak and Trump doesn’t have the guts to go after regime change so we’re good and no need to surrender”.
We’ll probably never know exactly what went on behind the scenes, but everything flipped overnight on March 17 after Ali Larijani was killed. The whole nature of the war (the one that was supposed to act as leverage to help the Iranian people), suddenly changed direction. From that night on, the strikes on the regime’s security forces, checkpoints, and top officials basically stopped.
At the same time, Iranians were still being told every single day to “stay home, it’s not time yet.” Then all of a sudden, Trump comes out and says the regime has changed and that a peace deal with the “new regime” is already underway!!!!
Well, I just don’t see any convincing reason why the Iranian people, after watching all this nonsense, even after more than two months of total internet blackout, crushing economic pressure, and living in constant fear, would rise up again, get shot in the streets, and have their blood used as another bargaining chip in some new “deal.”
At least in the short term, the deep despair and suffocation people are feeling right now isn’t going to turn back into anger and protest energy without some real sign of hope or success.
@TheBarrenNorth@HeKasrehCrisis If IntraNet is dismantled, the entire banking system that relies on credit cards will collapse unless reconnected to the internet again. Most people don't use cash anymore except for very small purchases.
Here is a list of things that can facilitate regime change in Iran that does not involve US boots on the ground or bombing civilian infrastructure and will cost $0:
- Shut down all IR embassies in EU and Arab states and expel all IR so called “Diplomats”
- Close all EU and Arab embassies in Iran and recall diplomats back home
- Kick IR out of all international sports federations/organizations
- Designate IRGC as a terrorist organization in the UK
- Drop IR appeasement rhetoric across the board in EU and North America
- Remove IR officials’ accounts from social media platforms
Here is the list of things that can ensure regime change in Iran that will cost some $ but not as much as putting US boots on the ground and will cost 0 US service members’ lives:
- Shut down the propaganda apparatus of the regime mainly through complete dismantlement of IRIB and eliminating propaganda figure heads
- Shut down repressive apparatus of the regime mainly through targeting of IRGC, Basij, and Police stations, equipment depots, street checkpoint, nightly gatherings, etc.
- Eliminate top regime officials indiscriminately not leaving out politicians or Artesh leadership
- Restore internet connection in Iran mainly through cyber attacks on the regime blackout infrastructure, ramping up distribution of StarLink kits and activating direct to cell technology by StarLink, AST Spacemobile, etc.
- Coordinate with opposition leader, the Crown Prince @PahlaviReza, to issue a call to protest and provide aerial support to protesters once the time comes.
Here is another myth that must be busted:
"Regime change is impossible through an aerial campaign. We were bombing Iran relentlessly for 40 days and the regime didn't change so we either need to make a deal with them or put boots on the ground"
Reality: Israel bombed Iran relentlessly for 2 weeks striking targets that mattered (regime leadership, propaganda and repressive forces). US spent 40 days playing whackamole with missile launchers and minelaying vessels while at the same time preventing Israel from eliminating the targets that actually matter after day 15, under the fantasy of finding a Delcy Rodriguez to sign a deal with.
You can bomb with the final goal of signing a deal or you can bomb with the final goal of breaking the regime enough for people to rise up and take over. What you target determines the outcome of your aerial campaing.
US decision making is completely detached from realities on the ground in Iran. Not sure if this is a result of lack of intel or what but whatever it is, it’s leading US to the biggest fumble of our time.
Here are some myths that US decision making and analysis is based upon:
- “3 layers of regime leadership have been removed”: FALSE ❌ Khamenei was replaced by his son and all the rest of leadership including heads of the 3 branches of government, police and military are intact.
- “There is fraction between hardliners and pragmatists/politicians within the regime”: FALSE ❌ IRGC and the beyt call the shots as they always have. Everything else is a show to mislead the west.
- “If US leaves today, it will take Iran 20 years to rebuild”: FALSE ❌ Damage to military facilities and missile/drone production supply chain are minimal and if the regime survives, it will be restored in months.
- “IR navy is at the bottom of the sea”: FALSE ❌ At the very least, there is enough of IRGC navy’s command and control left to enforce a full blockade on the strait of Hormuz.
- “IR air force, air defense and radar infrastructure are obliterated”: FALSE ❌ IRGC shot down a US F-15 after this claim was made for weeks. IR jets have been flying routinely since the ceasefire and Mahan airliners never stopped flying to Beijing and Moscow even during the war.
- “The blockade is effective and IR economy will collapse in a matter of weeks/oil wells will be permanently damaged/IRGC members will not be getting paid/etc”: FALSE ❌ the regime doesn’t give a flying fuck about economy. Never has. They will always have enough money through extortion, manipulation, and sanction/blockade evasion to pay their thugs to oppress people, their proxies to cause chaos and stay in power. If push comes to shove, oil will be dumped in the Persian gulf and elsewhere to avoid damage to production (news flash: they don’t give 2 shits about the environment either).
You can’t make decisions and war plans based on shitty info and expect to win. It’s not too late. Get back to full combat, let Israel lead (they have all the intel you’ll ever need) and finish the regime for good.
یه مشت کونپارهی هیچیندار که موتور پژو ۲۰۰۰ رو بستن رو قایق ماهیگیری، تونستن تنگه رو ببندند و ابرقدرت سیارهی زمین به جای گاییدن مادر و محو کردنشون از رو زمین در کمتر از ۱۲ساعت، چندهفتهست که با صدتا میانجی التماس میکنه برای توافق و باز کردن تنگه و الانم تو سازمان ملل به کسکشی افتاده که قطعنامه تصویب کنه و تازه استرس داره که نکنه چین و روسبه وتو کنن و قلبش بشکنه
استکبار جهانی به ما که رسید شد کبوتر صلح. بختت ایراتی بختت
حرفهای این خانوم شرم آور، پر از مغلطه، دفاع غیر مستقیم از ج.ا و تکرار پروپاگاندای حکومت است!
اگر اپوزوسیون جنگ طلب با این استدلال ها مسئول تبعات جنگ هستند پس صلح طلبان نیز مسئول کشتارهای ج.ا در دوران صلح هستند. این چه مغلطه ای است؟
البته در واقعیت نه صلح طلبان و نه جنگ طلبان خارج از قدرت مسئول جنایت ج.ا و مسئول جنگ افروزی حکومت و تبعات آن در دوران جنگ یا صلح نیستند.
برداشتن بار جنایت و تبعات جنگ از عامل اصلی آن و انداختن بار آن بر دوش دیگران بخوانید قربانیان آن، پروپاگاندای رژیم است. ج.ا جنگ راه بیاندازد اما مسئول تبعاتش قربانیان آن باشد؟ این استدلالها خون شویی است.
جنگ ایده ال نیست اما نه فقط خواست سلطنت طلبان بلکه خواست بسیاری از مردم داخل ایران و بخشی از جمهوریخواهان است. ج.ا با کشتار بیش از چهل هزار نفر و تحمیل صدها نوع مصیب به مردم از جمله جنگ کنونی باعث این رویکرد شد.
نه جامعه مدنی و نه اپوزوسیون نتونستند اینقدر مفید باشند که جلوی کشتار گسترده مردم رو بگیرند پس بخشی از مردم اتفاقا برای جلوگیری از کشتار کودکان ایرانی و غیر ایرانی می خواهند هر طور شده ج.ا از بین برود. دفاع از کودکان فقط در انحصار صلح طلبان نیست. کسانی که خارج از قدرت هستند و از جنگ حمایت می کنند آنها صلح واقعی را در نابودی ج.ا می بینند نه در بقای آن.
کشته شدن بچه های میناب تلخ بود، هنوز تحقیقات بی طرفانه مشخص نکرده چه اتفاقی افتاده ولی بی شک اگر آمریکا و اسرائیل این کار رو کرده باشند از روی عمد نکردند ولی ج.ا از روی عمد کودکان ایرانی و غیر ایرانی زیادی را کشته است.
ج.ا در کشتار حداقل مردم سوریه نقش داشت که در آن دهها هزار کودک مورد حمله شیمایی و بمب های بشکه ای قرار گرفتند معلومه که برای توقف این ماشین جنایت پخش گل و شیرینی همراه با موسیقی محلی باعث نادم شدن ج.ا و باعث ترک قدرت توسط آنها نمی شود.
فراموش نکنیم ج.ا جنگ را تحمیل کرد پس اولین مقصر کشته شدن بچه های میناب ج.ا است نه هواداران خارج از قدرت جنگ.
ج.ا در آستانه دستیابی به بمب اتمی بود و هست و اگر به بمب اتم دست یابد ممکن است میلیونها نفر قربانی شوند. پس طبیعی است بخشی از جامعه آماده پرداخت هزینه های تلخ باشند.
دهها مورد دیگر را می توان به این لیست اضافه کرد
مدام در اکس فارسی متوقعانه مینویسن چرا یانکیها با مم باقر مذاکره میکنن اما با نماینده اکثریت مردم ایران یعنی شاهزاده رضا پهلوی مذاکره نمیکنن. اولا اگر فکر میکنید با ایشان مذاکرهای نکردن یا حداقل ایشان را جز گزینههای احتمالیشون بررسی نکردن که خب خیلی خرید. و اما بعد بنده🔽
اعلیحضرت!
@PahlaviReza
منفعت مشترک «انتخابی اخلاقی» نیست، بلکه «ضرورتی استراتژیک» برای بقاست. کشورها برای اجتناب از جنگ، با یکدیگر توافق میکنند و منفعت مشترک ملّی پیدا میکنند. چون وضعیت پیشفرض میان کشورها، تضاد و رقابت است، پس صلح وضعیتی طبیعی نیست، بلکه «سازهای مصنوعی» است. کشورها وقتی میبینند هزینه نبرد از سودِ احتمالی آن بیشتر است، به دنبال یافتن «منفعت مشترک» میگردند تا تعادلی ایجاد کنند. مثال بارز پیمانهای کنترل تسلیحات هستهای در دوران جنگ سرد است. آمریکا و شوروی هیچ علاقه یا اعتماد متقابلی نداشتند، اما منفعت مشترک آنها در «عدم نابودی سیاره» بود. آنها محل نزاع را (سلاح هستهای) به بستری برای توافق تبدیل کردند.
منظور اینکه نه اروپا و نه آمریکا گوش شنوایی برای موعظههای شما نخواهند داشت. پند و موعظه از جنس اخلاقیّات هستند. توافق یا جنگ از جنس معامله و تجارت. شما باید کالایی برای عرضه داشته باشید تا بازی داده شوید. بازیگر سیاسی باید چیزی برای عرضه (مانند تهدید جدی، ثبات، یا قدرت نظامی) داشته باشد تا دیگران با او وارد معامله شوند. متاعی که شما عرضه کردید کشته شدن چنددههزار ایرانی بود. امّا آمریکا آن را بهعنوان کارت خود در وضع جنگ و صلح با جا بازی کرد. چرا؟
چون همان کشتار را هم جمهوری اسلامی مرتکب شده بود. یعنی در جنگی با مردم خودش پیروز شده بود! پس در واقع کارتی که رو کردید کارت شما نبود. بهانهای بود تا دو دشمن با هم گفتگو کنند و گوش یکدیگر را بپیچانند. «رنج مردم» یا «کشته شدن معترضان» در منطق سردِ قدرت، کالا محسوب نمیشود، بلکه تنها به ابزاری برای فشارِ طرفینِ اصلی (آمریکا و جمهوری اسلامی) بر یکدیگر تبدیل میگردد. شما نیز مثل آن دو، باید قوای مسلّح داشته باشید تا از نظر آمریکا حرفی برای گفتن داشته باشید. مادامی که توان بهدست گرفتن قدرت را نداشته باشید، تیمِ فشلِ نوفدی به تفتینِ افدیدی کلّ هیبت شما را بهعنوان ابزاری در تاکتیک جنگی اسرائیل خرج خواهد کرد. شما تا نیروی نظامی نداشته باشید و از طریق آن ملّت ایران را مسلّح نکنید، هیچ جایی در هیچ معادلهای نخواهید داشت. جمهوری اسلامی نشان داد که با همه کموکاستیها بلد است بجنگد. حاصل این مقاومت در جنگ هم جز این نیست که آمریکا با او در این محل نزاع مشترک، منفعت مشترکی تعریف میکند.
امّا تیمِ فَشَلِ نوفدی چون متوجّه نقطه ضعف شما در اعتیاد به اکتیویست بودن شده، برایتان مدام قرارملاقاتهای فاقد ارزش واقعی میگذارد. مدام شما را با گروههای مهمل و موهوم و پوچ آشنا میکند تا این توهّم را در شما پدیدبیاورد که کاری دارد صورت میگیرد. تیم مشاوران، شما را در تله اکتیویسم یعنی ملاقاتهای صوری، عکسهای یادگاری و بیانیههای اخلاقی انداختهاند. این کارها توهمِ دستاورد ایجاد میکند، در حالی که در معادلات واقعی قدرت، هیچ تغییری ایجاد نمیکنند چون پشتوانه قوه قاهره ندارند.
به عنوان دوستدار واقعی شما؛ میخواهم ازین "تنها دریچه تا هنوز غصب نشده" در توئیتر شما را متوجّه کنم که اعتبار شما رو به قهقراست. چون هیچ کار واقعی صورت نمیدهید. نه حاضرید که شاهانه بر روی تخت شاهی قرار بگیرید و میراث ملّی را پاسبانی کنید و نه اگر قصد دارید One-Man Show باشید، به مقتضیّات آن پایبندید. این «بلاتکلیفی میان دو نقش»
نه فقط برای شما، یا سرنوشت پادشاهی که برای ملّت ایران به بهای سنگینی تمام خواهد شد. بسیار دیر شده ولی هنوز میبایست تذکّر داد که لطفا نیروی نظامی تشکیل بدهید. بدون قوّه قاهره خودی (نه بیگانه)، هیچ کار واقعی صورت نخواهد گرفت. حقوق مفتخوران تیم را معلّق کنید، و نگران هیچ چیزی نباشید. جفتکهایی را که خواهند زد، ملّت ایران خنثی خواهد کرد.
جمهوری اسلامی برخلاف شما بهعنوان نماینده ما، سرزمین و قوّه نظامی دارد. پس میتواند آن طرف میز مذاکره بنشیند. غرب جمهوری اسلامی را به رسمیت میشناسد چون او «قوه نظامی» و «سرزمین» دارد و بلد است بجنگد. تا زمانی هم که اپوزیسیون فاقد نیروی نظامی مستقل (قوه قاهره خودی) باشد، از نظر قدرتهای جهانی اصلاً «وجود» ندارد که بخواهد با او «منفعت مشترکی» تعریف کند.
بیشترین چیزی که ما مردم داخل ایران میخوایم بعد از حذف زنجیره فرماندهی سپاه و پلیس و بسبج، مورد لطف قرار دادن ایست بازرسیها و تجمع زامبیهای بسیجی پرچم به دست میدانهای اصلی شهرهاست.
وقتی اسراییل شروع کرد به نوازش ایستبازرسیها مردم حتی از روز سقط شدن خامنهای هم خوشحالتر شده بودند.
و اینکه عوامل اصلی اجرای برنامه قطع اینترنت رو هم بیارید بالای لیست!
اگر ارتش آمریکا نمیخواهد به صورت نیروی زمینی برای نجات مردم ایران از قتل عام ورود کند می تواند از ما ایرانیان بیرون از مرز استفاده کند و من را به عنوان نفر اول نام نویسی کند. اگر فرد دیگری با من موافق هست در زیر این تویت اعلام کند.
If the United States military refuses to send ground troops to stop the massacre of the Iranian people, then let them use us — the Iranians in exile. Put my name down as volunteer number one.
If you stand with me, say so in the replies.