Atrax Cap

ROI funnel.

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@borrowed_ideas Just wanted to say that I find your posts and reflections on ideas to be really honest/authentic/objective and I think it lends much credibility to them. Thanks mate!

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@CJ0pp3l Apologies for the cynical sounding but genuine questions:
What's your estimate of the change in headcount in % terms?
And revenue per headcount trend?
(Lame and lazy indirect q implied: incremental rev per head)

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@SleepwellCap Interested in Serial Acquirers, cheers!

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@JunkieValue I think with mgmt attention more focused on TIC now, it may be possible to drive EBITDA margins closer to high-teen %, per listed comps (granted, those comps are large), providing further upside.

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@ValueSituations Presumably the multiples on their GRC bolt-on targets have also come down, such that recycling the capital will still be accretive over the medium term

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@borrowed_ideas Similarly, Google's moonshots and Meta's Reality labs - though I feel these latter two are more cultural decisions and preemptively combating competitive threats than explicit higher NPV options vs buybacks.

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@borrowed_ideas I often wonder whether mgmt of Amazon & Costco *explicitly* compare reinvestment (both margin and capital) vs generating higher margins/FCF generation/ buybacks/divs today. Margin could have been taken for 20 years, but presumably rational mgmt calc'd higher NPV from investment?

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@hurdle_rate Interesting, appreciate the data. What stands out to me is the contrast in the base rate for a 3x in the original sample of 8%, vs the 1/4 chance of the 3x going on to 10x. It would seem you can triple your chance at a 3x, by narrowing the pool to names that have already 3x'd.

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@hurdle_rate Curious on the degree of overlap across the categories? Are most of the 10x also appearing in 3x and 2x? If so, then targeting a 2-3x over 3-5y is the first step to 10x over 10y. If not, perhaps there's a case for shorter time frames in these particular names?

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@BillBrewsterTBB Super $NTDOY, $SGAMY Genesis

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@IntrinsicInv @sama @Stealth40k The Invisible Hand of the market is no match for the Gloom Hands of the depths. > 4 days for sure.

[Atrax Cap @AtraxCapital]

@LukeWolgram I found Mark Meldrum CFA prep videos at 1.5x speed was super efficient to cover a lot of material in a small amount of time, even only 2 months out. Good luck!