Audi Byrne (Ebola)

Bio-mathematician interested these days in epidemiology, due to the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Spent some time in Senegal & Guinea in 1999.

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

Troy MathFEST 2023 was great!

On Saturday I saw some great undergrad talks and gave a talk about the spread of disease (the expected rate of growth) and chatGPT (details about how the self-attention mechanism works). Here are the google slides: https://t.co/IY0krR2evG

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

The Chinese data that broke down severity by age said the same thing, that even 40 year olds will have a significant chance of a severe case.

[Helen Branswell 🇨🇦 @HelenBranswell]

The first real dissection of data from U.S. #Covid19 cases contains some sobering numbers, @sxbegle reports. One-fifth of young-to-midde-aged adults (20-44yrs) who tested positive ended up in hospital & 2%-4% needed ICU care. https://t.co/2fRkxTe8L8

[Audi Kiskowski Byrne @a_haema]

Oh my god! Is this message going to be the ruin of us? The American Medical Association needs to send a statement now! @AmerMedicalAssn Who else can help? Please send to anyone you can think of.

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

30 minutes required at 167 F, but a typical oven setting is around 350 F
https://t.co/HO84Zm59zw

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

Surely high heat kills viruses? They may have added uncooked vegetables at the end. Still, how long to cook food in an oven to be sure any virus is destroyed?

[Alan Wong @alanwong]

Neat graphic showing that about one in four Hong Kong coronavirus cases are linked to a single hotpot dinner https://t.co/A227v8t7oY Note that it's unclear whether hotpot is to blame. One expert says steam can carry the virus farther. Another says the big gathering was a mistake

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

"the SARS virus is destroyed when heated to a temperature of at least 140°F for 30 minutes"
(surely 30 minutes is longer than necessary?) https://t.co/nLoDbxP4sn

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@cmyeaton @reichlab have you thought about or started looking at age distributions? (is this data available for 2020 by week?) might be more signal there, especially for deaths https://t.co/pmqNV5dKhn

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

age-related pneumonia mortality data (ages 35-44): the background rate is about 2* 10^(-5) = 2 per 100,000

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

age-related pneumonia mortality data (ages 35-44): the background rate is about 2* 10^(-5) = 2 per 100,000

[Dali L. Yang @Dali_Yang]

The move is an indication that authorities are resolved to cut off the further transmission of the virus. Families have been asked to stock up for what's coming amid higher prices and more limited selections. What's unknown are how these families are holding up psychologically.

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@cmyeaton (sorry, week 6 to week 7)

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@cmyeaton
Hi Caitlin, you are more familiar with these data from Flu View. How to interpret this drop in flu-positive cases from week 7 to 8? I'm thinking it's incomplete submission of testing results, but I really have no idea. Total ILI visits were about the same. Thanks

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

The CDC says they will begin surveillance testing next week. They said that last week. This is too important not to verify at the minute logistical level. We cannot afford any delay.
(by the way I made a mistake, it's been only 9 days ago, but it feels like forever)

[Audi Kiskowski Byrne @a_haema]

As you know if you've been following even 1 out of 5 of my tweets the past couple weeks, I am extremely anxious about the lack of surveillance testing being done in the US. When they announced they were going to do this 13 days ago, I applauded this absolutely NECESSARY step.

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

I understand the masks are not airtight and won't protect HCWs. However, they filter a fraction of the air you breath? How effective are they compared to nothing? If someone sneezes, I'd like to make it a little more difficult for big droplets to get to into my nose?

[Terri Lewis, PhD #GratefulToBeVaccinated in TN-6 @tal7291]

#coronavirus #COVID19 Precautions
About those face masks - will they actually help?
https://t.co/f3ULcrOMLw

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@CivicNetworks @cmyeaton @T_Inglesby I think maybe, we are too fatalistic because we are counting Iran as a big failure of Wuhan containment when actually it seems it was already in Iran. If we focused more on that, we might realize we have two ongoing big containment projects, rather than one failed one..

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@CivicNetworks @cmyeaton @T_Inglesby I think maybe, we are too fatalistic because we are counting Iran as a big failure of Wuhan containment when actually it seems it was already in Iran. If we focused more on that, we might realize we have two ongoing big containment projects, rather than one failed one..

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@a_haema @MRC_Outbreak well, I *knew* the number of secondary cases (traveling from Europe etc) were harder to estimate. I'll admit though, I had not anticipated such large outbreaks going unnoticed in other countries (Iran, mostly) before any cases at all identified here 🥴

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@JenniferNuzzo @cmyeaton I agree. I wonder to what extent we thought spread had not yet occurred outside Wuhan the days before the lockdown. But it seems there were a couple places already in the early days of their outbreaks. This means, we contained Wuhan pretty well, but there were a few more leaks.

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@BillHanage @Duh_Natural @KindrachukJason @MOUGK I think experts are pounding the drums about the former, but the public is listening for when it's the latter.

[Audi Byrne (Ebola) @AudiByrne]

@BillHanage @Duh_Natural @KindrachukJason @MOUGK There's also a big gap between, 'I'm fearful that large spread here is inevitable' and 'I'm fearful that I'm at a very small but non-negligible risk of exposure now'