Auggie778

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

In the early days of Trump’s second term, his economic advisers laid out a simple theory: Show the bond market that Washington was serious about closing its gaping deficits and long-term interest rates would fall on their own. Trump could leave the Fed alone.

It hasn’t worked out that way.

The White House theory rested on fiscal restraint that never arrived and overlooked how much of Trump’s own agenda would feed the price pressures now pushing rates higher. Tariffs raised the cost of imported goods. The war with Iran sent oil and diesel prices soaring. https://t.co/M33ytDSAMr

[停雲 @tingyun97]

喜欢《瓦尔登湖》中的这句话：

“一个人，只要满足了基本生活所需，不再汲汲于声名，不再汲汲于富贵，便可以更从容地享受人生。”

[阿离啊哩哩 @gengzishunli]

躺平的两个必要条件：

1.即使再努力也完成不了阶级跃迁。

2.即使不努力也能保证温饱。

[林曜 Lumen @cc88888888888cc]

一个家族要实现阶层跨越，必须有个人站出来单挑命运。

[shipra @shipranotes]

Read more books. Read to escape reality. Read to understand reality. Read to challenge what you believe. Read to think better. Read to write better. Read to argue better. Read to know yourself. Read to build something. A single book can completely rewire your brain.

[Tom Zheng @TomZheng_in_X]

什么都不敢尝试的人，是注定要穷一辈子的。

车停在家里最安全，但那不是买车的目的。
人躺在被窝里最舒服，但那不是人生的意义。

要致富开店铺，要经商走四方 人要闯 马要放。
千日造船 一日过江 路在人走 事在人为
你害怕失败的同时，其实也在拒绝成功。

[迷思拆解_Panda🐼🐼 @andy88988696]

长大后发现，其实一个人保持体面真的很不容易

他需要每天洗头，整洁的衣服，乾淨的鞋子，健康的皮肤以及经常打理的发型，才能让他那么体面的站在我们面前。

而这些背后可都是需要良好的环境，合理的休息，适当的收入，没有烦恼的心情，甚至对明天充满明媚的盼望。

你以为简单，可许多成年人，每天就被这些击垮。

[dante @dantefofante]

Im gonna say it. You need hobbies that help you live in the present moment even if they’re technically not good for you. When you spend all your time focused on a past version of yourself (who was more fun), or a future version of yourself (who will *surely* be better off), youre stealing energy away from the only version of yourself who is guaranteed. Present you. The only person who can do anything about anything at all.

[Shawn Yin @shawnyinmr]

好的交易员性格上有共性，也有特性。场内交易时代芝加哥的自营交易公司最青睐的交易员背景并不是金融。

而是两类人：退役军人和退役运动员；并不是因为爱国优待，而是从数据和结果上看确实有优势。这两类人的共性是心理素质抗压力极好，竞争意识极强。

电子交易为主的时代，甚至是长线价值投资者，也是对性格会有一定要求。金融市场的假象和噪音太多，没有一定的心性可以说是必然被迷惑。

此外推荐本华尔街交易员经典书籍《金融怪杰》（《Market Wizards》)，以及连续的三册都可以读。内容是Jack D. Schwager访谈了各个传奇交易员包括Druckenmiller，Paul Tudor等，从中大家可以找到一些启发和规律。

这些传奇交易员都有性格上非常人所及的一面。我说一个身边的例子，我的第一任老板就是《金融怪杰》里的其中一位。他一度被称为短时间内赚钱最快的交易员。

他给我讲了个911的例子我颇有印象。2001年纽约的第一高楼双子塔被撞后，其实当时在芝加哥第一高楼工作的人的第一反应也是马上撤离。因为大家想的如果纽约高楼被袭击，芝加哥也有风险。

我前老板说当时家里的老婆孩子都打电话哭着催他下楼回家，同事们也都在蜂拥而出，可事实上他根本没有离开交易台。而就这几十分钟，成了交易生涯的高光时刻。

[段闲云 @interestxy]

保持人生快乐的秘密，是允许。

允许世事不如意，允许人会改变，允许付出没有回报。允许自己会难过、会做错选择，也允许有些人，只能陪伴你无忧地渡过生命一小部分时光。

很多痛苦，都来自不允许，不允许失败，不允许离别，不允许别人不爱自己。而允许不是妥协认输，是放过自己，接纳现实本来的样子。

[Steve Donzé @steve_donze]

If enhanced buybacks continue at $6b per operation pace till year-end, they will mop up 25% of long-duration supply this year. This is a big deal and likely enough to cap the term premium.
(1/2)

[DeCarleyTrading.com @carleygarner]

It is wild how accurate this has been.

[ace $ @acemoney21]

It’s a lot easier when you realize no one really know what they’re doing

They’re all just trying stuff. Just like you

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

I don't see how rates can go down now that we see Warsh as a serious practitioner, the president unable to stop the war, the allies in the region depending almost entirely on us, and oil stocks headed back up quickly. Unholy developments

[Michael Nicoletos @mnicoletos]

I believe we are very close to witnessing one of the biggest intraday reversals in the U.S. Treasury market we have ever seen.

[Alex Corrino @AlexCorrino]

There is an expression in markets that you should buy when policymakers start panicking.

If I was a policymaker I would be close to panicking...

[🎈 @Balloon_Capital]

大多数人的脑子，停留在市场的叙事里跳不出来。Waller早告诉你九月不会加息了，今天的PPI也基本确认九月不会加息，但这些人还在讨论九月要不要加息。🤪🤪🤪

[Coffee Capital @Coffee__Capital]

🇺🇸 The last time the 10Y got above 5% (Oct ‘23), it rallied ~110bps before ending the year around 3.90%.

[Peter Atwater @Peter_Atwater]

10-year yields are now back to where they peaked in the middle of October 2023.

What's fascinating is that 3 years ago, bond investors were salivating over the opportunity to own "high yielding" Treasuries. It was a BTFD moment in bonds.

Today, the doomering is palpable.