AussieTrader

Stock and crypto investor. Prefer bigger picture macro trends over technical analysis.

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@angus_walker_ Over a percentage drop in shorts in a couple days.

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@angus_walker_ Considering the price movement today (currently 15%) and the level of shorts (currently 14%) do you think the is a chance of a short squeeze?

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@vidsthatgohard He was under fire from the scond shooter while disarming the guy as well.

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@abcnews Haha, at the 20 second mark one politician seizes his opportunity to expose another's toupee, takes several swipes at it until it is knocked off, the victim is then more worried about that.

[Peter Dutton @Hon_PeterDutton]

This is the concept design of a zero emissions small modular reactor.

Nuclear energy has proven to get electricity prices and emissions down all over the world.

Out of the world’s 20 largest economies, Australia is the only one not using nuclear energy or moving towards it.

Zero emissions nuclear energy is part of the answer to our energy challenges.

It works with renewables and would allow Australia to get to net-zero. It will keep the lights on 24/7 and keep electricity costs down.

Right now, Australia's energy comes from 63 per cent fossil fuels and 37 per cent renewables.

As we transition away from fossil fuels, Labor’s renewables-only approach means Australia risks a massive energy black hole and extraordinary costs.

Labor is stuck in the past, and like most of their policies, it is not forward-thinking, and you are suffering because of it. The Coalition will not make the same mistake.

I announced today that a future Federal Coalition government will introduce zero-emissions nuclear energy in Australia to work in partnership with renewable energy and gas as part of a balanced energy mix.

Our plan will deliver net-zero electricity by 2050, lower power bills and a strong and resilient economy.

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@PeteWargent Could be 1 or 25

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@AdemOzirmak @PolyNovoLTD @HotCopper @BullsNBearsWA @HSBC_AUS @Citi @BNPParibas @stockswami @ChuckChunder007 @insufficientcap @AsennaWealth Are you shorting due to price downtrend or is there a fundamental reason as well?

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@samnyark @tommyr345 Yes weird to do a trading halt, but still a solid company with great growth, really can't see why people are not jumping on at this price.

[Erik Townsend 🛢️ @ErikSTownsend]

When I announced that ENERGY TRANSITION CRISIS is finally done, and linked the TRAILER, a bunch of people concluded the full series wasn't ready.

ALL EIGHT EPISODES ARE LIVE ON YOUTUBE RIGHT NOW.

Here's the player for Ep. 1.

PLEASE REPOST!
https://t.co/Mzh9AicxZQ

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

Bruce Greenwald invited Li Lu to speak to his class on value investing.

The result is a 90 minute masterclass on how to be a value investor.

If you haven't watched the video, do it now.

If you have, it's worth re-watching.

Here is a list of my favorite quotes from Li Lu 👇

PERSONALITY OF A VALUE INVESTOR

• "Understand who you are as an investor, because you will be tested. You will have to ask yourself if you truly are a value investor."

• "Value investing goes against our evolution of following the crowds to survive."

• "You will spend most of your time as an investigative journalist. To have insatiable curiosity."

• "You almost have to be curious about everything. Because you never know where you'll get that one major insight."

INVESTOR CRITERIA

• Is it cheap?

• Is it a good business?

• Why is this opportunity available to me?

"Once you answer those questions, you really have to go for it."

INVESTMENT CASE STUDY 1: TIMBERLAND

• "The first thing I check in a company is it's valuation."

• "If you're an investor you don't care where it traded before."

• "What matters isn't the price-to-book ratio itself, but what's in the book value."

• "You want to compare the capital invested in the business to how much pre-tax cash flow the business generates using that capital."

• "So Timberland generated $100M on $200M in capital invested. So why does the opportunity exist?"

- Nike, Reebok, all the shoe brands fell off a cliff during the Asian Financial Crisis.

- Founder owns 40% of the stock

- Company was profitable and didn't need financial markets (no sell-side)

- Tons of shareholder lawsuits

• "What would be your conclusion if you were a normal mutual fund hearing this information? That management is milking the company for their own gain."

What does Li Lu do next?

• "I download every file of the shareholder court cases. That's the investigative journalist part."

• "The result was that the founder withdrew guidance and shareholders didn't like it. That was it."

How do you determine if management are decent people?

• "You've got to be an investigative journalist and find the trail of evidence. Go to their community. Introduce yourself to their friends/family/neighbors."

Total Time Commitment: "A couple of weeks of diligent/obsessive work"

• "Investing is intensive work for short bursts of time."

HOW MUCH TO BUY?

• "If you go join a fund, they'll tell you not to risk anything more than 25-50bps."

• "Think about how much effort you put in to this work. You have no downside and its trading at 5x profits."

• "So, I put a shitload of money into Timberland. Over the next 10 years it went up 7x. It was never more than 15x earnings."

• "If you're not a good analyst, you'll NEVER be a good investor."

• "When it goes up, you don't have to do a damn thing. You just sit on it and ride with it."

INVESTMENT CASE STUDY 2: KOREAN COMPANY

• "Don't think about per-share numbers. Think of yourself as an owner."

• "$236M in book value, $60M market cap, $25M net earnings."

How do you know it's cheap?

• "You must confirm that the earnings are there, and that the book value is real, liquid, and tangible."

• "They're trading at the cash value in the bank with no debt. They have hotels and department stores that they own outright. They're making $30M+ in pre-tax earnings. And insiders own 50%."

The result: Went up 5-6x

VALUE INVESTING IS NOT NATURAL

• "There's a lot of money in value investing. But it's still unnatural to most people."

• "One thing you have to do, is you have to do the work. You have to do the reps. You can make a ton of money if you really do this stuff."

• "I benefited by listening AND THEN DOING my own work. Making my own investments and mistakes."

WHAT MAKES A GREAT ANALYST

• "You must provide accurate and complete information. If you can't succeed on that, you can't succeed in this business."

• "If you're not confident about your prediction and what you know, you can't put any money when the stock's in free fall."

WHAT PROVIDES THE BIGGEST RETURNS

• "Your biggest returns will come from no more than ten tremendous insights. That's it."

• "The only way to build those insights is intense curiosity, intense study."

INVESTING MISTAKES

• "The biggest mistakes come when you buy before you've done all the work."

• "My biggest mistakes aren't buying and losing money. It's not buying and missing out on 50-60x returns."

HOW MANY COMPANIES SHOULD YOU BUY

• "I don't have any set rules on how many stocks or companies I buy. Opportunities are sporadic and it depends on the environment."

• "I usually have 3-4 big ideas. If the market is exciting, I have more opportunities. Or if the market is boring, I have fewer."

HOW LI LU ALLOCATES TIME

• "Most of the time I spend reading and studying about everything. Learning new companies and industries."

• "If I find an idea that captivates me. I stop everything and obsess over that idea."

• "Besides that, I spend a lot of time with my kid and my wife."

TL;DR:

• Be an investigative journalist.

• Work obsessively in short bursts and spend the rest. of your time learning.

• When you've done the work and have conviction, buy a shitload to make it worth it.

• Before you invest $1, make sure you can answer the three big questions: Is it cheap, is the management team good, and why does the opportunity exist.

• Never stop learning.

• Become a curiosity machine.

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@Wiz_Of_Oz2 You jinxed it, was going so good.
It is reporting on the 21st, should show increased sales again, believe that this will send it back above $2

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

Investing tools help you to make better investment decisions.

Here are 15 free tools everyone should know:

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@QCompounding Book

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

Compounding Quality's first e-book is ready!

It will be published on Amazon soon (price: $30).

Today I am giving it away for free.

To receive it:
1️⃣ Follow us (so I can DM you)
2️⃣ Retweet this tweet
3️⃣ Reply 'Book' below

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@CrackpotEconAU @longhorncapital They do not have high debt levels, increased wage costs would be the biggest danger however they produce and sell their own product so safety built in their. Good long term buy as far as I'm concerned especially at these prices.

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

One of the best ways to learn about the Copper Industry is by studying the Top 10 Global Producers.

I read each of the Top 10 #Copper Producer quarterly reports so you don't have to.

Here's a thread on the most important data and themes from the world's largest players ... 🧵

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@mcgaffen There's someone putting a large sell order on just above the opening price everyday for the last month, was 245k of stock today. I would say they are shorting pnv, if the sell order gets taken out then the price will take off

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@StockTrackAU Was actually over 11% a year ago, now under 3%

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@BLSHigh Will hopefully make its first profit this financial year as well

[AussieTrader @AussieTrader3]

@BLSHigh $pnv reports better than expected sales, don't know why so many people doubt this company. Going from strength to strength, long term hold in my opinion.