Yesterday, at a meeting of the Global Foresight Council in Paris, we discussed security. War has changed dramatically over the past five years. At the start of the full-scale invasion, I refused to evacuate and remained in Kyiv, which the Russians were trying to encircle. Back then, the war took the form of a column of Russian tanks storming my city. But today, it’s a completely different war.
It’s a war of unmanned vehicles, the use of AI, massive drone attacks, complete battlefield transparency, and rapid-fire long-range weapons. All the military experience of the last century is simply irrelevant.
Today, it’s not just military power that takes center stage, but a society’s capacity for resistance. You can have modern equipment and weapons, but if the country lacks people willing to defend it, that won’t help you much. Likewise, if the people on the home front are unable to withstand the onslaught of war, even the most experienced army cannot hold back the enemy without support from the home front.
This winter, with temperatures at minus 25 degrees, millions of people in Ukraine lived without heat, electricity, or water. It’s hard for me to convey just how difficult it was. But all the banks were open, parliament held sessions, classes took place in schools, and hospitals performed surgeries. This is what the world calls Ukrainian resilience. But in reality, this is “total defense” itself. When a simple action becomes an act of resistance.
People matter. Without working with people - those who take their freedom and security for granted - neither a powerful economy, nor military potential, nor even nuclear weapons will save developed democracies. Because if you are rich and weak, in a world where the international system of peace and security is dysfunctional, you will be plundered.
And I see almost no frank discussion of this in developed democracies. Only a few countries stand as rare exceptions. In the rest, a psychological mechanism of denial dominates - the idea that “we are unique, so something like that simply cannot happen to us.”
If Putin stops fighting, the war ends. If Zelensky stops fighting then his country will be occupied, leaders murdered, language banned, businesses stolen, children kidnapped. That's what happens in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
Great interview with @avalaina in Austrian TV @ORF : „We want to alive and we want to be free“. It’s as simple as that! As long as putin attacks Ukraine we have to support the victim
So Ukraine did observe the 'ceasefire' by refraining from attacking russian oil refineries for 3d, only to face intensified missile attacks on our energy infrastructure, the removal of the early warning system for ballistic missiles and reduced Starlink speeds, and, on top of it all, a whole new wave of abuse and pressure from Trump.
You've just seen a short demo of how a peace deal would be implemented by russia and guaranteed by the US.
The moment Ukraine would give up Donbas, those guys would immediately accuse us of something else (like giving away Donbas without showing sufficient respect).
This is a vile and disgusting betrayal.
Our Ukrainian allies are being slaughtered at home — while they sleep — without warning.
By cutting off aid to Ukraine, Trump chose evil and oppression over liberty and freedom.
Make him and Republicans pay in 20 days.
🚨Die USA haben offenbar Maßnahmen ergriffen, um Russland den Krieg gegen die Ukraine zu erleichtern.
➡️ Sie geben der Ukraine keine Informationen über anstehende ballistische Angriffe mehr.
➡️ Sie sabotieren Starlink, damit die Ukraine sich nicht mehr adäquat verteidigen kann.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni:
“Supporting Ukraine is not an alternative to peace. It is what makes peace possible in the first place.
For if an aggressor can work towards their opponent’s capitulation, why should they negotiate?
If Ukraine were to stop defending itself tomorrow—as many hope and suggest—we would not have peace.
We would be discussing the occupation of a European state and the return of a Soviet-style imperialism—the kind Europe suffered under for half a century.”
The U.S. may have intentionally withheld early warnings this week of Russian strikes on Ukraine, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CBS News. https://t.co/uBOCUqxUUy
Out now: our Dispatch 2, Human Rights Hold the World Together 🌍
Against attacks on human rights and the international order by great powers, we set out 7 benchmarks for intermediate powers.
Foreword: Oleksandra Matviichuk @avalaina. Afterword: Odette McCarthy 👇
As President Donald Trump and his administration have ratcheted up pressure on Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, citing harm to American consumers, they have remained silent on recent Russian strikes on US businesses in Ukraine. https://t.co/FwZBlR5QnT
Ukrainian soldiers and people associated with the military are reporting restrictions on Starlink service. Likely on the direct orders of Elon Musk. Despite the fact that Ukraine pays him for these services.
How this will help Russia, which is currently losing occupied Ukrainian territories, is for the military to comment on. I will speak to the impact on the civilian population.
Starlink is also used by the interceptors that protect Ukrainian cities from Russian jet-powered Shaheds. Without that protection, Russian drones will strike residential buildings, hospitals, and schools like targets in a shooting gallery.
Let me be blunt: the blood of Ukrainian children will be on the hands of the owner and the entire team of this American company.
Wow. Americans must be very proud of their today's greatness. Killing trust in the American defence sector for the sake of making putin happy is truly outstanding.
🚨 BREAKING: Ukraine received no intelligence data on Russian ballistic missile launches for two consecutive nights.
President Zelenskyy stated air defense systems detected warheads only on approach to Kyiv, causing severe damage to Thermal Power Plant No. 4 and setting residential buildings ablaze.
So, looks like Musk tonight restricted Starlink for Ukrainian frontline, which already affected a number of missions for our military. Meantime, Kyiv was bombed by ballistic again without any alert warning, energy grid is affected. I think it would be fair for Trump just to bomb Ukraine in order to make it surrender to Russia. It would be more honest than just quietly hurting Ukrainian defenses. I think it would be a great outcome of Budapest memorandum for everyone in the world to witness.
‼️ Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov confirms that Starlink services - and specifically Starshield - have been partially restricted in Ukraine. The same was reported earlier by @sternenko.
Right now, Russia is striking Kyiv with ballistic missiles. Zelensky says that, once again, there was no warning from our partners. It looks like the Trump administration did, in fact, order a halt to intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
I hope that it will not be confirmed. Because in practice, this means people in Ukraine will no longer even have a chance to reach a shelter in time. And that is why civilian deaths in Ukraine will multiply intensively.
With that, let me remind you that the United States acted as a guarantor of Ukraine's security and territorial integrity. One can’t help but wonder whether there’s anything behind those words.