Avery G

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[Avery G @AveryGisme]

Fannie Mae (FNMA) is the story of the government, for nearly 60 years, choosing policies that subordinated taxpayer and homeowners interests, for nakedly political ends. Congress very deliberately CHOSE NOT to codify a guarantee, it would’ve lowered rates both F2 and m buyers.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@revgalerivs @tqlemd Do you have any results back. Gpt said you get one or two free hours of work and after that they stop or you pay through the nose, so being exact seems pretty important.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@revgalerivs @tqlemd That’s very smart, I think I may do two as well.

Did you put in a charges cap? How does that all work?

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

That’s not the topic though.

What if any percentage of the 395B SPS claim do you guess gets “forgiven” and if any is forgiven how do you think that nets more than just taking a clean 80%.

Your “plan” would require 30B combined in interest and they’d have zero reserves and so taxpayers FULLY on the hook.

Who do you work for currently broski?

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

You’re right. Common started December around $2.70 and ended December around $4.80 or so. It had almost doubled from Ackman’s tweet the week prior, so good timing there.

But the article references you explaining in the next issue why there’s resistance from Republicans and the industry regarding release. What do you think are the largest reasons for that resistance?

I’d somewhat dispute the idea that they’re a money printer for the government. Treasury’s claim is increasing for every dollar earned, but that’s metaphysically unpayable, and Treasury is no longer taking any earnings from either company. They’d only become actual money printers if Treasury decided to strip all reserves through the SPS—which I highly doubt would be allowed—or turned on dividends while retaining 80%. Treasury hasn’t received anything since the change from NWS1 to NWS2.

I think you’re on target with the general claim of broad resistance, but most shareholders do not discuss or know the specific reasons for such resistance.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

I’ll say at least for her, she doesn’t seem half as sleazy as the Nikola founder Trevor Milton who Tucker tried to rehabilitate and Trump pardoned.

I can at least see how things got derailed for her, with some prospect of the scam being instrumental and temporary, Milton on the other hand, sheesh.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

What are the two largest reasons you believe there’s resistance within the Republican Party or even from the Democrats?

Could you identify specifically what entities oppose(d) F2 release and why?

Or if not could you post the follow-up article please.

Also, common was in the mid to high twos at that point; even assuming an overwhelming likelihood of non-release, wasn’t there nonetheless an obvious expected value via upside? Thanks.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

I’ve seen your twitter posts for a while Eddie, but I very much doubt I’d guess your Reddit username.

Your Reddit comments, while always informative, seem to typically have a different tone.

Nm: GPT may have lead me astray, does your Reddit name start with a K and if not are you on there?

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@Wize_Markets @whitecorona Are you on Reddit too Elie N?

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

Bingo, this is not well enough understood.

The administration wanted the price low in either the scenario of trying to convert SPS (I don’t believe that’s possible anymore) or distribution of spoils to insiders and corporate allies/maybe buy options after uplist etc.

They could have supported the price countless ways without providing the entire plan, instead we’ve basically been ghosted since last October (with a blatant pump campaign prior). There’s approximately zero chance they didn’t recognize both realities.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

Not a challenging call, but the predictions from this community of rates going down and that being the obstacle to release were extremely cringey.

I knew rates were vastly more likely to go up from the moment they glanced 5% (said so every other post on Reddit too) … was one of the most obvious calls imaginable.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@JonOksenholt I’m not certain of any qualifications, but I’d like to hear any thoughts.

Wish I could add fmcc here, but I’m out of ammo for the next few months.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

I’m not buying this. Of all the credible criticisms of the administration, this is one of the dumbest possible critiques; what’s being criticized should be welcomed. Every business deal in history benefits “some rich person,” and FnF ownership is more heavily retail than virtually anything above the micro-cap level.

This may be a useful story, but it isn’t explanatory. People close to the process know this, although we don’t expect them to “put the administration on blast,” either.

I’m betting that release eventually becomes inevitable and that Republicans will want to set terms they view as serving their interests. As for the activity surrounding the stock, I would question the judgment of anyone who has followed this story closely and doesn’t assign the liklihood as a two-time ‘you know what’.

I’m betting on a 2.5X ‘you know what’, this is the only frame that explains the wild course and assumes (remote to moderate) rationality.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@SkiloBuckz @youRdumb2026 @RobCarpenter Yeah, that’s a big part of why they’re huddled around and smiling.

There’s still some small chance of disproving fault depending on the truck and the cars data.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@pisspope Sounds like he’s losing about 15% of his take home pay.

It’s not great, but not catastrophic given his income. I’m sure he enjoys it a lot actually, dude is pretty far away from playing sports himself.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@MikeDugar Waker I think gets in more often than not.

It was very poor running as well. It’s the right time of year to test whether you can run it down a team’s throat when they know it’s coming.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

Dude, are you not aware of how we’ve conducted foreign policy for the last 100 years?

If the choice is between being frozen out of Western banking and transacting in illicit BTC, it’s not close. Maybe there’d be a funky BTC black market where it trades at 25 cents on the dollar, but at that point, you might as well register. If you’re not accepting how the global dollar-based banking system currently works, there’s definitely nothing I can say to convince you.

Good luck. I might buy one BTC or something, but I think you’re either engaging in some very motivated reasoning or need to learn about sanctions and financial plumbing.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@ChrispLMarshall @LynAldenContact It doesn’t. It presupposes the dollar is materially relevant in global finance.

Confiscation/making unregistered bitcoin unusable is again, not even a moderately hard problem.

[Avery G @AveryGisme]

@DanielSyck @johnnycakes720 @grok 5 years out worst case for FNMA and 7 for FMCC.

If they hit those absurd thresholds and there’s still no action I think shareholder suits have a chance.

Trump wants to taste this juicy pie before he leaves office though.