Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS

Edu only • Not advice • Not RIA
Housing/Mortgage Intel → Data, not headlines
May hold $BTC $ADA $ONDO $FMCC $FNMA $OPEN $ONDS $SOFI long

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

Resolving the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac ($FNMA / $FMCC) conservatorship isn't just about housing finance - it's a test of contract integrity and government credibility in U.S. capital markets.

As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and FHFA Director Bill Pulte focus on housing market stability, the roadmap to exit conservatorship must avoid destructive, unnecessary shareholder dilution.

1. The Accounting Reality: The Principal is Paid
Taxpayers were made whole long ago. Fannie and Freddie drew ~$191B in crisis funding but have paid back over $300B in cash dividends - the original principal plus $100B+ extra. The current ~$300B+ Senior Preferred liquidation preference largely reflects unpaid dividends added to the balance and the Net Worth Sweep preventing paydown, not additional new taxpayer cash since 2012.

2. Why "Converting the Senior Preferred" is a Mistake
Converting hundreds of billions in paper liquidation preferences into common stock would severely punish existing shareholders who stayed invested through 18 years of conservatorship. A healthy U.S. market relies on property rights and contract law, not punitive dilution.

3. The Rational, Fair-Market Solution
- Deem/Cancel Senior Preferred: Recognize that the government's initial principal has been fully satisfied by past dividend sweeps.
- Address Warrants Cleanly: Settle or exercise the 79.9% Treasury warrants in a controlled, non-disruptive way.
- Adjust ERCF Capital Rules: Modernize the FHFA Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework so the GSEs can safely exit without needing unrealistic amounts of new cash.
- Uplisting: Relist $FNMA and $FMCC on NYSE, unlocking true market valuation.

If the U.S. wants to invite private capital back into government-adjacent enterprises, it must show that contracts are honored and that success is rewarded - not penalized. 🇺🇸📈

Disclosure: Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. Not financial advice. Opinions are my own. Do your own due diligence.

@Pulte $FNMA $FMCC

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@PrincessSneech Sara, $FNMA $FMCC NWS harm was proven by a jury of 8 in Lamberth 2023: $612.4M for breach. That's not politics, that's contract law. Wall Street didn't write the NWS, Treasury did. IMO, NFA

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

Eddy makes a fair point. Shareholders have won unanimously - 3-0, 8-0. At some point DOJ continuing to defend the old conservatorship structure works against the admin's own goal to release and rebuild. Time to align policy with court wins. $FNMA $FMCC

[Eddy Xie 🇺🇸 @whitecorona]

@IMFpubs @realDonaldTrump @pulte Why r u DEFENDING prev admin who FRAUDED American shareholders? Why keep fighting after 3-0, 8-0 UNANIMOUS WON at Shrholders ! Y'all just talk No Commie while being HYPOCRITE TO THE MAX ! So many of us so upset, we will be NO RUSH TO THE POLL. NOT #MAGA

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

To avoid dilution we need 2 things:

1) UPLIST first so price goes from $5 to $15+ IMO
2) Capital rule at 2.5% (or lower) not 4%

Then we raise little capital at high price = we don't get diluted. If we raise at $5 with 4% rule, we get wiped.

$FNMA $FMCC NFA, IMO, Please do your DD.

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

989 followers. 11 from 1K.

Pulte's tenure at DNI is done since early August. He's 100% back at FHFA now.

No more distractions. He should be 100% focused on what shareholders want:

UPLIST + RELEASE for $FNMA $FMCC

Follow along - we've held since 2013.

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@bblakey121 F2 family. Documenting daily until UPLIST. Follow along - we've held $FNMA $FMCC since 2013.

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@bblakey121 @bblakey121 Understand the frustration - -60% since May Truth Social pumps will do that. But UPLIST is 100% FHFA authority, no vote needed. RELEASE needs Treasury on warrants. Need timeline, not silence. $FNMA $FMCC

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@63andConcerned @63an... He does for step 1 - FHFA can uplist to NYSE alone. Step 2 release needs Bessent/Trump on 79.9% warrants. That's why I split it: UPLIST + RELEASE. First part is fully on Pulte. $FNMA $FMCC, IMO

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@2025Updated @2025Updated Agree he should. That's why we're holding him accountable daily. DNI done since August, no more distractions. He promised UPLIST + RELEASE - we track execution now. Held since 2013. $FNMA $FMCC

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

Respectfully Sara, there WAS harm - proven in court.

1. Paulson 2008: Took $FNMA $FMCC with 79.9% warrant at $0.00001, told Wall St friends weeks early commons would be wiped out, then wiped them.

2. 2012 NWS: Treasury took 100% of profits ~ $300B+, F2 made $28B+ last year and shareholders got $0. SCOTUS ruled that FHFA was unconstitutionally structured.

3. Ongoing harm: May 2025 Trump Truth Social pump to $14, then total silence. FNMA now $5 = -62% in 1 year, -55% since uplist talk. Retail bought the promise and is now down 60%. That's HARM too.

If no harm, why did gov lose 3-0, 8-0 unanimous?

Protect existing shareholders. End conservatorship. IMO, NFA

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

Exactly. Paulson took them down to save his Wall Street friends.

The President said it himself in 2021 to @RandPaul:

"My Administration would have sold the government's common stock at a huge profit and fully privatized $FNMA $FMCC. The idea that the government can steal money from its citizens is SOCIALISM and is a travesty brought to you by Obama/Biden."

Mr President @realDonaldTrump - When do you act on YOUR words?

End conservatorship. NFA.

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@nicosintichakis Nico is 100% right. 18 YEARS waiting, Nov 2025 came and went, nothing but TV ads and silence.

We need ACTION not headlines. Protect existing shareholders, end conservatorship, return $FNMA $FMCC to NYSE where they belong.

No more moving goalposts. NFA.

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@JonOksenholt @DoNotLose IMO both work - different risk/reward.

Commons = upside optionality on UPLIST + RELEASE

JPS = discount to par chase

I track commons mainly, but weakness here is interesting on both if thesis holds. NFA.

$FNMA $FMCC

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@HorsemanCountry That means a lot coming from you Brother. Been watching your work in this space a long time.

We keep pushing - for the whole $FNMA $FMCC fam. Appreciate you! 🙏

[Horseman Country @HorsemanCountry]

$FNMA $FMCC

@Wize_Markets is well worth a follow if you're engaged in the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac saga.

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

We’ve all felt it R. Down 26% / 50% but nothing fundamental changed - that’s the conservatorship discount. IPO talk was a year ago, market wants a timeline, not talk. I’ve held since 2013 - this chop is normal before release. 10x needs warrants exercised + recap done. Timeline matters more than hype right now. $FNMA $FMCC, IMO NFA

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@StockChaser_ Holding $ONDS here too. Analyst setup is unusual - 9 covers, Strong Buy, not one below current price. $19.42 avg = +162% from tonight's $7.40 close. Risk/reward skewed if they execute. NFA

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

@AveryGisme @whitecorona Not on Reddit - only here on X. All my work is WIZE MARKETS on X. Appreciate you asking though!

[Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS @Wize_Markets]

IMO / My Read - Educational Only. Not Financial Advice. Please do your own DD.

Why I think $FNMA $FMCC weakness to $4.85 is interesting before any potential recap news. This is my opinion on how large deals often work:

1. Banks lined up for a potential IPO/secondary typically prefer low volatility / quiet tape pre-deal. FNMA is OTC, wholesale flow dominated. IMO this can lead to price being walked down.

2. Treasury optics: My read is selling 5% and marking 95% to market could look better if baseline is low BEFORE and higher AFTER - textbook taxpayer win headline. IMO low now could help optics later.

3. SPS overhang: In my opinion, any potential Senior Preferred resolution might be easier to explain at lower levels vs higher.

AIG, Citi, GM, BAC all traded like distressed during TARP exit until structure was revealed - then repriced. That is historical pattern, not a guarantee this does same.

I see $195B+ retained, $30B+ annual, $0 draws in ~10 yrs, backing $10T+ housing. 18 yrs conservatorship is long - in my opinion.

If/when structure drops (SPS, PSPA, IPO path) - IMO commons could rerate, but could also go lower. Risk is real.

We hold. Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. NFA.

$FMCC $FNMA - IMO, My Read, Educational, Not Financial Advice.

[Brew Stonks @9TailDoog]

$FNMA $FMCC

Under HERA (2008), the FHFA holds conservatorship over the GSEs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and FHFA Director Bill Pulte can amend the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) bilaterally—restructuring debt and warrants without a vote in Congress.

[Kaz Nejatian @nejatian]

It's been a historically bad month and bad week for mortgage rates. Today's movement is in the top 5 one-day deteriorations since 2011. A mortgage rate with zero points yesterday now requires approximately 1.2 discount points to lock.

This is why we are building Opendoor Home Loans - to help Americans buy homes.