Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr

Stop guessing Bitcoin's next move
Daily on-chain brief: cycle phase, key levels, one clear read
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[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Strong earnings from SpaceX revived interest in AI-related stocks: third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion, and its shares gained 7.8%. The Nasdaq rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Dow added 0.7%.

Improving sentiment in equities provided a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s gains. Is demand for BTC strong enough to sustain the recovery, and what does on-chain data reveal about who’s buying now?

A closer look in Bitcoin Market State Report #6
https://t.co/vg1CmQSlZw

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin compression continues. The 30D High and Low range has narrowed from 13% to 6%. Price has been in the compression zone for the 9th consecutive day, between $80K and $86K.

Yesterday price bounced off the SMA 365 and closed at $80.5K. This is a new 30D low. Volatility compression usually ends with an impulse.

Key levels: $86K above, SMA 365 below.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

@Darkfost_Coc @cryptoquant_com Who owns the wallet?

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

@NorthernTape We need to wait for compression on the daily timeframe.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin sentiment is cooling, dropping from 83 (peak on August 26) to 45 and exiting the Extreme Greed zone, while the price has held in a narrow range over the same period. Fear & Greed fell from 71 to 51 and the share of bullish votes on CoinGecko from 78% to 72%.

The overheating has cleared without a sell-off, which is a healthier base for the market.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

On July 1, MVRV Percentile reached 0% at a price of $59.3K. This was followed by a recovery to 32% (September 27); the indicator held around 30-32% for about two weeks, but failed to consolidate and pulled back to 25%.

The market remains in the early-to-mid accumulation phase.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

BTW, 7.81K BTC was pulled from US ETFs yesterday.
https://t.co/I5PNDHbkWH

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Visual overview of the current market.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Coins continue to leave exchanges, while the futures market remains balanced. We look at what is behind the sharp decline in outflows and why the positioning index is near zero.

Details in Morning Brief 285👇
https://t.co/W7uLpPdIEP

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Coins continue to leave exchanges, while the futures market remains balanced. We look at what is behind the sharp decline in outflows and why the positioning index is near zero.

Details in Morning Brief 285👇
https://t.co/W7uLpPdIEP

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

@Darkfost_Coc The markers are based on the 7D change in the share of realized cap held in coins younger than one month, green when it rises, red when it falls.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin is 11% above the short-term holder cost basis.

The share of new buyers has climbed from 6.6% to 11.2% since July.

Where’s the key level?
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #284👇
https://t.co/tJJe36AcTp

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin supply in profit has recovered to 14.11 million BTC after falling below 11 million. The metric has moved out of the Bottom Discovery zone and sits just below the Liquidity Accumulation threshold of 14.19 million BTC.

Supply profitability is recovering.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

What the market looks like right now 🐳

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Short-term whales' paper profit fell from a record $9.8 billion to $4.6 billion over the past month. On the same day, October 20, whales sent 10.6K BTC to exchanges, nearly three times the usual amount. Profits are shrinking while more coins are landing on exchanges.

What this means for the market and what to watch next, we break down in Morning Brief #283.

https://t.co/rYTmGYDaYC

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Short-term whales' paper profit fell from a record $9.8 billion to $4.6 billion over the past month. On the same day, October 20, whales sent 10.6K BTC to exchanges, nearly three times the usual amount. Profits are shrinking while more coins are landing on exchanges.

What this means for the market and what to watch next, we break down in Morning Brief #283.

https://t.co/rYTmGYDaYC

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time: 10% annually over a 10-15-year horizon.

For comparison: U.S. large-cap stocks - 7.5%, U.S. REITs - 8.2%, gold - 5.5%.

BTC’s expected annualized volatility, however, is 55%.
https://t.co/iBS6XtMzFr

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Market context explained visually.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin is correcting: down 6% from its early October high and just 1.5% above support.

The price structure signal is now neutral and futures sellers have the upper hand. Where does a correction end and a deeper decline begin?

I break it down in Morning Brief #282 👇
https://t.co/D53e4WCXfo

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin is correcting: down 6% from its early October high and just 1.5% above support.

The price structure signal is now neutral and futures sellers have the upper hand. Where does a correction end and a deeper decline begin?

I break it down in Morning Brief #282 👇
https://t.co/D53e4WCXfo

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

How is Bitcoin responding to the shift in equity market sentiment? What's happening with long-term holder positions, and is demand strong enough to absorb the supply? How durable is the current momentum and which on-chain signals will be the first to flag rising downside risk?

Find the answers in the latest issue of Weekly Engine 117👇
https://t.co/n8DkGpV1Ut

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin long-term holders have cut their holdings by 345K BTC since late July. In early October, they were spending coins almost every day, but the pace has slowed.

What this means for Bitcoin supply and which signal to watch next - in the new Morning Brief 281👇
https://t.co/Ok8auJ3X49

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

@Psychometriks Hundred percent.

[Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr @AxelAdlerJr]

Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the second consecutive week. Net flows over the past 30 days remain positive at +15.4K BTC, but inflows are shrinking, pointing to weakening demand.

That said, weekly net outflows have eased to 2.8K BTC.
https://t.co/I5PNDHbSMf